ATL: ANA - Post-Tropical

[gatorcane]

saved loop, looking good:

[ozonepete]

Yep. Looking good. As Nimbus said, and Stacy Stewart often reminds us, a storm over what are normally too-low SSTs can still intensify if the upper troposphere is colder than normal. This is quite close to a minimal hurricane, though I don't think it has enough time left.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

The "big blob" of rain just hit Southport about 10 minutes ago. I looks like steady hard rain the rest of the night. They have now upped it to 7+ inches predicted and we are under a flood watch. After a full day of breezy blue skies, I can officially say, "here we go!"

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Velocities on radar are up to 65-75kt at an elevation of ~4200ft. We'll see what recon says, but I wouldn't be surprised at a 55-60kt tropical storm.

[ozonepete]

The "big blob" of rain just hit Southport about 10 minutes ago. I looks like steady hard rain the rest of the night. They have now upped it to 7+ inches predicted and we are under a flood watch. After a full day of breezy blue skies, I can officially say, "here we go!"

Hi Wilm! Yeah it's clear you're about to get pounded with rain. 5-7 inches seems very possible given the slow forward speed.

[Andrew92]

Is anyone else seeing a slight warm spot around the center of this storm? Is that an eye developing, or just some dry air? Hoping for the latter, but this one has surprised a lot of people's expectations it seems. I did predict winds of 60 mph, but that would be its peak. I don't mean to alarm anyone living along the Carolina coast, but I could have been too conservative in my prediction the other day?

Stay safe if you are in this storm's path!

-Andrew92

[NDG]

Boy did I made myself look bad or what, lol. This morning I was saying that we had seen the best of Ana last night that she was going to be on a slow and steady decline during the day, but was I wrong or what, I should had known better, lol.

[NDG]

One thing for sure is that the SW quadrant of Ana is stronger than this morning.

234200 3234N 07834W 8425 01539 0083 +137 +025 313044 045 047 002 00

[NDG]

Zoomed in saved radar loop:

[TheStormExpert]

There's no way Ana is still a 60mph storm as of 8pm, I'd gone with maybe 65mph. I mean I've seen plenty of hurricanes that have looked worse than this!(a few were from last year)

I guess looks aren't everything.

[Andrew92]

Latest advisory keeps Ana at 60 mph with 1001 millibars for pressure. I would say until recon gets into the stronger right-front quadrant, that is probably the right decision.

But indeed, a few other people on Jeff Masters's blog are also questioning what that is in the center, some speculating it could be an eye. We'll see what recon says shortly.

-Andrew92

[NDG]

Recon has not reported in nearly 20 minutes, just have to wait for the vortex message now.

[TheStormExpert]

Latest advisory keeps Ana at 60 mph with 1001 millibars for pressure. I would say until recon gets into the stronger right-front quadrant, that is probably the right decision.

But indeed, a few other people on Jeff Masters's blog are also questioning what that is in the center, some speculating it could be an eye. We'll see what recon says shortly.

-Andrew92

I'm thinking that might be dry air. In the last few frames of the satellite images it looks like it might be getting ever so slightly less organized. Then again who knows.

[psyclone]

Ana continues to exceed my expectations and is one cool looking storm...the type I would happily "wishcast" to my backyard. Hold on to your hats on the Johnnie Mercer pier tonight.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Saved infrared loop:

[ozonepete]

Definitely not an eye. Has to be some local mesoscale area of subsidence from thunderstorms.

[Andrew92]

That IR loop also seems to make a better case for dry air than an eye. It appears to form at first, but then there's offshoot of thunderstorms over the feature before it shows up again. And it doesn't look as healthy as the frame before made it look like.

Probably still a 60-65 mph tropical storm though.

-Andrew92

[NDG]

Too bad the recon I guess is having communication problems, I hope they can still send the vortex

[JonathanBelles]

New Post: http://jonathanbelles.com/2015/05/09/tr ... ina-coast/

[ozonepete]

Wow that is really funny. On the RGB it looks so much like an eye. Just uncanny.