WPAC: NOUL - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 MAY 2015 Time : 171500 UTC
Lat : 16:05:15 N Lon : 123:52:40 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 935.1mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.6 6.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 25 km

Center Temp : +12.7C Cloud Region Temp : -76.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.7T/12hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 131km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 30.7 degrees

[cycloneye]

JMA is up to 100kts.

TY 1506 (NOUL)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 9 May 2015
<Analyses at 09/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N16°05'(16.1°)
E123°55'(123.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 10/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°40'(17.7°)
E122°50'(122.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 10/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°05'(19.1°)
E121°50'(121.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 11/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°20'(23.3°)
E124°10'(124.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 330km(180NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)

<Forecast for 12/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N29°05'(29.1°)
E133°05'(133.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 45km/h(25kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 MAY 2015 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 16:13:48 N Lon : 123:49:50 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 933.0mb/129.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 6.8 6.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 25 km

Center Temp : +13.7C Cloud Region Temp : -76.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 112km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 30.8 degrees

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 091828

A. SUPER TYPHOON 06W (NOUL)

B. 09/1732Z

C. 16.13N

D. 123.91E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO . WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS AN E# OF
6.0. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT OF 7.0. MET AND
PT YIELD A 6.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Upgraded to the 2nd STY of the season

06W NOUL 150509 1800 16.1N 123.8E WPAC 130 926

Although i do believe this could be a category 5 already...RAW T up to 7.1...

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 MAY 2015 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 16:23:58 N Lon : 123:48:07 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 930.5mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 6.8 6.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 25 km

Center Temp : +14.4C Cloud Region Temp : -76.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 112km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.0 degrees

[cycloneye]

SuperTyphoon at 130kts.



WDPN31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR
28//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEEPENING SYMMETRIC CORE STRUCTURE THAT HAS
MAINTAINED A SHARP WELL-DEFINED 20-NM EYE WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 130 KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND IMPROVED
STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH, COMBINED WITH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) ABOVE 30 CELSIUS, IS CREATING A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION. STY NOUL IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. OVER THE NEXT 06 TO 12 HOURS, FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING NOUL TO INTENSIFY
LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS AS IT TRACKS OFF THE
NORTHEASTERN TIP OF LUZON. AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN THE STEERING STR, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TURN POLEWARD BY TAU
12. AS STY 06W TRACKS POLEWARD AND ROUNDS THE STR AXIS, THE COMBINED
EFFECTS OF INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SST WILL ERODE THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND BEGIN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND. BEYOND TAU
48, STY NOUL WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY AND BEGIN
TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
C. AFTER TAU 72, STY 06W WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

That sudden NNW wobble for the past few hours may have saved Northern Luzon from the full power of Noul. Like I've said, people in this area need only the rain, not the devastating winds...

[dexterlabio]

However James who is now in the NE tip of Cagayan may not be ready to chase a Category 5 this early. He is in a waterfront beach in Santa Ana, Cagayan if I am not mistaken...

[dexterlabio]

Local news shows the province of Isabela experiencing strong winds at the moment. I assume the area where James Reynolds is staying right now is already experiencing bad weather as well...

[ManilaTC]

For your viewing pleasure.

2015MAY09 220100 7.0 922.8 140.0 7.0 7.0 7.2 3.2T/18hr OFF OFF 14.35 -77.38 EYE 23 IR 87.2 16.76 -123.45 COMBO MTSAT2 31.5
2015MAY09 220100 7.1 896.5 +2.3 143.0 7.1 7.3 7.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 14.35 -77.60 EYE 23 IR 85.8 16.78 -123.44 COMBO MTSAT2 31.6

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 MAY 2015 Time : 220000 UTC
Lat : 16:45:31 N Lon : 123:27:09 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 925.4mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.9 7.0 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 23 km

Center Temp : +14.4C Cloud Region Temp : -77.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 112km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

[Yellow Evan]

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 MAY 2015 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 16:59:38 N Lon : 123:20:07 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 922.7mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 7.0 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 23 km

Center Temp : +15.4C Cloud Region Temp : -77.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 112km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2

[dexterlabio]

the last Cat5 to directly affect Luzon is Megi almost five years ago.

[cycloneye]

06W NOUL 150510 0000 17.0N 123.3E WPAC 140 918

[dexterlabio]

Not seeing much in the way of high wind speeds affecting land on metograms do you have any dexterlabio.

Follow the reports on the field itself spiral, James is tweeting updates from Cagayan..also some local mediamen are already there.. but I don't know if the wind speed is surpassing TS strength already..the eye is inching closer but the wind field is so small so we can only wait for the reports...

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 MAY 2015 Time : 010000 UTC
Lat : 17:12:08 N Lon : 123:03:52 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 922.7mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.9 6.7 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km

Center Temp : +15.7C Cloud Region Temp : -75.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 112km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.2 degrees

[dexterlabio]

^that is exactly where James is right now. His footage will be interesting. Luckily as far as I know it is less populated compared to southern Cagayan province. Though the houses are built on light materials...



EDIT: looks to me like it's about to peak (if not already there)..land interaction may be taking its toll on Noul...

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR
29//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 196 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS THE SUPER TYPHOON HAS MAINTAINED A SHARP WELL-
DEFINED 20-NM EYE WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 140 KNOTS
BASED ON CONSENSUS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T7.0 (140 KNOTS)
FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW
RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH, COMBINED
WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ABOVE 30 CELSIUS, IS CREATING A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION. STY NOUL IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
06 TO 12 HOURS; HOWEVER, DUE TO FRICTION EFFECTS AS THE SYSTEM
SWIRLS OFF THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF LUZON, STY 06W IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH AND WILL SLOWLY BEGIN
ITS WEAKENING TREND BY TAU 12. CONCURRENTLY, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO TURN POLEWARD AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE
STEERING STR. BY TAU 24, THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF INCREASING VWS AND
DECREASING SST WILL ERODE THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND FURTHER
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AS STY 06W ACCELERATES AND BECOMES FURTHER
EMBEDDED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, THE SYSTEM WILL BROADEN
AND GAIN FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AFTER TAU 48. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE
ETT BY TAU 72.
C. IN THIS EXTENDED PERIOD, DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AND EXPECTED ETT, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GENERALLY
WEAKEN AS THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM MIGRATE
FROM THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM INTO THE DEVELOPING FRONTS. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A GALE FORCE, MID-LATITUDE LOW BY THE END OF
FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL
JAPAN AND FURTHER ON INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.//
NNNN

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 MAY 2015 Time : 023000 UTC
Lat : 17:29:18 N Lon : 122:52:23 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 922.6mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 6.6 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km

Center Temp : +14.6C Cloud Region Temp : -73.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 112km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.5 degrees