Hurricaneman wrote:Is it possible we've seen the peak of this El Nino as looking at the sub surface near the date line it seems as though the +2+ anomalies are shrinking some but I do think the 1-2-3 regions will warm some as that area with the subsurface is rediculously warm still and the anomalies are still growing more positive there while region 4 drops off possibly due to lowering anomalies in that region and what does that do for both the WPAC, EPAC and Atlantic in terms of storms and hurricanes if the ENSO 4 drops, something that I thought to bring up because it seems to be happening even if temporary
If I remember right it will still shear out the MDR and Caribbean for the Atlantic but not as much while in the EPAC it really doesn't change things much from what El Nino would do anyway but its the WPAC that will have a change as it will bring a few more typhoons closer to the Island like the Phillipines and Japan but could be wrong on that
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See 1997. The warm pool shrank dramatically in August, not just 2Cs but all. And noticeably, the +5 and +6 anomalies are growing and which completely contrary to your statement. 1982 was a surprise, like nearly everyone thought it would remain weak at best, yet it exploded to a super Niño by October. 1997 and 2015 are in the same footsteps, textbook WWBs, rapidly and steadily warming eastern Pacific and massive warm pool which keeps on growing - something we did not see last year. The WPac had seen 2 Cat 5s and crazy season for both NPac and SPac (Aussie), maybe three if Dolphin becomes one, and is because of the WWB materializing, also did not see in 2014 since we only had Ita and weak Faxai/Peipah.
Wow, that's insane.
