WPAC: DOLPHIN - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

JMA more southerly and peak...




CMC also agreeing on a southerly track and peak




EURO is closer and peak




GFS also passes south of Guam and peak of 885 mb!

[euro6208]

So far, my coworkers are slowly talking about this potential typhoon hitting us on the opening of our 5 star hotel on the 15th, the day when it will make it's closest approach. This will be a huge test if this hotel survives and i am worried but trying to be optimistic

Crazy but at the same time i want this to hit being a huge weather enthusiast, i also want this to miss to save this hotel...crazy no?

[euro6208]

NAVGEM

[cycloneye]

Euro,is going to be a strong Typhoon as it movers close to Guam so be prepared.



WDPN32 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING
NR 20//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 464 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEPENING ALBEIT BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING SHEARED TO THE WEST. AN
111041Z GMI 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SPIRAL BANDING BEGINNING TO
WRAP AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY WITH A PARTIALLY CLOSED MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE THAT SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS TO REFLECT THE
IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND IS SUPPORTED BY AN ASSESSMENT
OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL WITH EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND
MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, THE
STORM MOTION IS NOW IN-PHASE WITH THE VWS VECTOR, REDUCING THE
OVERALL IMPACTS. TS DOLPHIN HAS STARTED TO ACCELERATE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TURN TO A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY
OVER THE NEXT 06 HOURS AS THE STEERING STR CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE
NORTH. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED, LEADING
TO A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 36, AN IMPROVING
ENVIRONMENT, WITH REDUCED VWS (05 TO 10 KNOTS) AND AN INCREASING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED INTENSIFICATION
RATE.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS DOLPHIN WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT
MOVES JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STEERING STR. BY TAU 96, ANOTHER
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE STEERING STR TO
WEAKEN AGAIN, ALLOWING TS 07W TO TURN SLIGHTLY POLEWARD TOWARDS A
BREAK IN THE RIDGE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE WITH AN ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 28 CELSIUS, SUPPORTING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

Euro,are there web cams in Guam? It will be good to have them to see how things are doing there as Typhoon Dolphin by the time it moves close to that island.

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING
NR 21//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 144 NM
WEST OF UJELANG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LLCC WITH GOOD CONVECTIVE BANDING SHEARED TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR AS WELL AS A 111814Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 2.5 DUE TO THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 07W IS AN
AREA OF LOW VWS AND BEGINNING TO HAVE BETTER POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STR TO THE
NORTHWEST OF TS DOLPHIN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE STR. THROUGH TAU 72, EXPECT THE STR TO FLATTEN AND ELONGATE,
CREATING A STRAIGHT-RUNNING STEERING MECHANISM FOR TS DOLPHIN.
HOWEVER, A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH IS EXPECTED AS THE STR BEGINS TO
CONSOLIDATE SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF 07W. EXPECT AVERAGE
INTENSIFICATION RATES IN THE MID-RANGE FORECAST AS OHC REMAINS
STEADY AND OVERALL OUTFLOW AND VWS IS FAIRLY STANDARD.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TS DOLPHIN WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK TO THE WEST WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWEST AS THE STR DEEPENS
AND THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. DUE TO HIGH SSTS, LOW
VWS AND ANTICIPATED RADIAL OUTFLOW, EXPECT A JUMP IN THE INTENSITY
OF THE SYSTEM WITH A POSSIBLE RI SITUATION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

888 mb peak...

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Dolphin will be undergoing some gradual strengthening for the next 24-48hrs before it transitions to more faster intensification in a more favorable environment. Guam may have something to watch out for. We will see.



Synopsis on Dolphin and others: http://goo.gl/INzbp1

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN (07W) ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP072015
800 AM CHST TUE MAY 12 2015

...TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN NOW MOVING WEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR FANANU IN CHUUK STATE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR FANANU IN CHUUK STATE.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73
MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

RESIDENTS OF ULUL IN CHUUK STATE AND RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANAS
SHOULD CAREFULLY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.2N 158.2E

ABOUT 230 MILES NORTH OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 430 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 470 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK
ABOUT 595 MILES EAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 935 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN
WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 10.2 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 158.2
EAST. DOLPHIN IS MOVING WEST AT 7 MPH...AND WILL CONTINUE IN THIS
DIRECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING IT NORTH OF CHUUK.
ON THURSDAY...DOLPHIN WILL RESUME A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THAT
TAKES IT IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF GUAM.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A TYPHOON WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT UP TO 140 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE CENTER...AND UP TO 110 MILES ELSEWHERE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 1100 AM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 200 PM.

$$

M AYDLETT

[cycloneye]

18z GFS goes over Guam.

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to Severe Tropical Storm at 55kts.

STS 1507 (DOLPHIN)
Issued at 01:05 UTC, 12 May 2015
<Analyses at 12/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N10°05'(10.1°)
E158°10'(158.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more W330km(180NM)
E220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 13/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°05'(10.1°)
E154°50'(154.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 14/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°40'(10.7°)
E149°35'(149.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 15/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N12°10'(12.2°)
E144°40'(144.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL520km(280NM)

[cycloneye]

JTWC 03:00 UTC track is almost over Guam.



WDPN32 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING
NR 22//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 157 NM
WEST OF UJELANG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. A 112329Z METOP-B AND ASSCOIATED ASCAT SHOW THE
SYSTEM CONTINUEING TO DEVELOP SLOWLY. THE CURRENT POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTED MICROWAVE IMAGES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 07W IS IN AREA OF LOW VWS AND SOME
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A STR TO THE NORTHWEST OF TS DOLPHIN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 36. BEYOND THAT, EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO START
TO TAKE A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE STR BUILDS IN TO THE
NORTH EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND 07W BEGINS TO TURN INTO THE BREAK IN
THE RIDGE. AVERAGE INTENSIFICATION RATES ARE FORECVAST IN THE MID-
RANGE FORECAST AS OHC REMAINS STEADY AND OVERALL OUTFLOW AND VWS IS
FAIRLY STANDARD THROUGH TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TS DOLPHIN WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE STR DEEPENS AND THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. DUE TO HIGH SSTS, LOW VWS AND ANTICIPATED
RADIAL OUTFLOW, EXPECT A JUMP IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WITH A
POSSIBLE RI SITUATION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Looks like Tip part 2. Same environmental conditions, and model agreement. Same development as battled with shear and will later explode.... Biggest difference is different time and month of the year.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

07W DOLPHIN 150512 1200 9.9N 157.2E WPAC 50 985

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 121256
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN (07W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP072015
1100 PM CHST TUE MAY 12 2015

...TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN SLOWLY INTENSIFYING AND MOVING TO THE WEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FANANU IN CHUUK STATE.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73
MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

RESIDENTS OF ULUL IN CHUUK STATE AND RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANAS
SHOULD CAREFULLY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.9N 157.6E

ABOUT 210 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 385 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 425 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK
ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 875 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 905 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...260 DEGREES AT 5 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN
WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 9.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 157.6
EAST. THIS POSITION IS BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION SCATTEROMETER
DATA. DOLPHIN HAS SHOWN A DEFINITE TENDENCY TO MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF
WEST AT THIS TIME...BUT IS EXPECTED TO RESUME IT WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
MOVEMENT LATER TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING IT SOUTH OF OR VERY
CLOSE TO GUAM ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 MPH. MICROWAVE IMAGERY IS BEGINNING TO
SHOW A MICROWAVE EYE THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND IS LIKELY
TO BECOME A TYPHOON WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT 140 MILES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER AND UP TO 100 MILES ELSEWHERE...THIS IS BASED ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE-DERIVED SCATTEROMETER DATA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

R EDSON .

[cycloneye]

STS 1507 (DOLPHIN)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 12 May 2015
<Analyses at 12/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N10°00'(10.0°)
E157°40'(157.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 13/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°20'(10.3°)
E153°05'(153.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 14/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N11°25'(11.4°)
E148°00'(148.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 15/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N13°25'(13.4°)
E143°05'(143.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL540km(290NM)

<Forecast for 16/12 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N15°50'(15.8°)
E138°25'(138.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Radius of probability circle 520km(280NM)

<Forecast for 17/12 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N19°05'(19.1°)
E136°10'(136.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(10kt)
Radius of probability circle 700km(375NM)

[euro6208]

Eye seems to be developing and looks comma shape indicating strengthening

[euro6208]

Euro,are there web cams in Guam? It will be good to have them to see how things are doing there as Typhoon Dolphin by the time it moves close to that island.

Unfortunately I can't find any good webcams on Guam if there is any.

[euro6208]

Talk about a direct hit!

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING
NR 24//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 757 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY DEEPENED AS FORMATIVE BANDS
CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE. HOWEVER, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
REMAINS OBSCURED BY A COLD DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 121036Z ASCAT PASS WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT
OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL HAS BECOME APPARENT. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 36. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE STR IS WEAKENED BY A
TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH JAPAN. THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS
PERSIST IN ADDITION TO WARM ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TS DOLPHIN WILL TRACK
INCREASINGLY MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS IT TRACKS INTO THE BREAK IN THE
STR CAUSED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. CONTINUED FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL FAVOR A MORE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION TOWARDS THE LATER TAUS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN