Texas Spring-2015

[TheProfessor]

It really is a miracle that the immediate Dallas-Fort Worth area has yet to be hit by a F5-EF5 Tornado.

[WeatherGuesser]

Weren't y'all just talking about severe drought?

[Brent]

It really is a miracle that the immediate Dallas-Fort Worth area has yet to be hit by a F5-EF5 Tornado.

I was amazed yesterday at how yet again DFW escaped with almost no bad weather... there was flooding to the north and south, killer tornadoes to the west and east... and most of the metroplex didn't get much. It's totally weird and it seems like DFW always get off easy??? At least in my observations of this active pattern. Every event the bad stuff has been somewhere else.

Oddly this doesn't apply to squall lines just when there's supercells or flooding

[Rgv20]

Well this was certainly an evening to remember in my neck of the woods! Lots and lots of Rain and Thunder....even some penny to quarter size hail for about 5 minutes.

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1151 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

TXC427-120530-
/O.CON.KBRO.FF.W.0013.000000T0000Z-150512T0530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
STARR TX-
1151 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

...THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR SOUTHEASTERN STARR COUNTY...

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 AM CDT FOR
STARR COUNTY...

AT 1147 PM CDT...WATER RESCUES WERE OCCURRING IN SOUTHEASTERN STARR
COUNTY...INCLUDING RIO GRANDE CITY. INDIVIDUALS HAVE BEEN RESCUED
FROM THEIR HOMES AND VEHICLES. OVER TWO FEET OF WATER IS OVER
HIGHWAY 83 IN SOUTHEASTERN STARR COUNTY. WATER HAS ENTERED HOMES AND
BUSINESSES THROUGHOUT THE AREA. FIVE TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN AND ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

IF YOU ARE TRAPPED BY FLOOD WATERS AND NEED HELP. CALL 9 1 1.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR RIO GRANDE
CITY...GARCIASVILLE...LA CASITA...AND HIGHWAY 83 BETWEEN RIO GRANDE
CITY AND THE STARR/HIDALGO COUNTY LINE.!

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... RIO GRANDE
CITY...EL SAUZ...LA ROSITA...SULLIVAN CITY...LA
GRULLA...ESCOBARES...GARCIASVILLE...SANTA CRUZ...NORTH
ESCOBARES...LOS ALVAREZ...SAN ISIDRO...ALTO BONITO...ROMA PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING SITUATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL UNLESS YOU ARE
FLEEING AN AREA SUBJECT TO FLOODING OR UNDER AN EVACUATION ORDER.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 2669 9883 2678 9832 2626 9859 2625 9862
2626 9862 2624 9867 2626 9868 2627 9872
2628 9870 2629 9871 2630 9875 2631 9874
2633 9875 2633 9879 2637 9880 2635 9890
2639 9893 2637 9895 2640 9896 2639 9901

$$

JGG

[Ntxw]

Heavy rain signal later this week. This is becoming more than just beneficial, waterlogged. SOI has crashed.

[Annie Oakley]

[quote="Rgv20"]Well this was certainly an evening to remember in my neck of the woods! Lots and lots of Rain and Thunder....even some penny to quarter size hail for about 5 minutes.

[i]FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1151 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

TXC427-120530-
/O.CON.KBRO.FF.W.0013.000000T0000Z-150512T0530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
STARR TX-
1151 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

...THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR SOUTHEASTERN STARR COUNTY...

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 AM CDT FOR
STARR COUNTY...

AT 1147 PM CDT...WATER RESCUES WERE OCCURRING IN SOUTHEASTERN STARR
COUNTY...INCLUDING RIO GRANDE CITY. INDIVIDUALS HAVE BEEN RESCUED
FROM THEIR HOMES AND VEHICLES. OVER TWO FEET OF WATER IS OVER
HIGHWAY 83 IN SOUTHEASTERN STARR COUNTY. WATER HAS ENTERED HOMES AND
BUSINESSES THROUGHOUT THE AREA. FIVE TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN AND ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

IF YOU ARE TRAPPED BY FLOOD WATERS AND NEED HELP. CALL 9 1 1.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR RIO GRANDE
CITY...GARCIASVILLE...LA CASITA...AND HIGHWAY 83 BETWEEN RIO GRANDE
CITY AND THE STARR/HIDALGO COUNTY LINE.!

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... RIO GRANDE
CITY...EL SAUZ...LA ROSITA...SULLIVAN CITY...LA
GRULLA...ESCOBARES...GARCIASVILLE...SANTA CRUZ...NORTH
ESCOBARES...LOS ALVAREZ...SAN ISIDRO...ALTO BONITO...ROMA PARK.


RGV-have ya'll been in a drought situation down there in the Valley?

http://www.krgv.com/

[gboudx]

From jeff regarding the Cisco and Van tornadoes:

On Saturday and Sunday a pair of tornadoes impacted locations over N TX resulting in extensive property damage, injuries, and fatalities. NWS survey teams investigated the damage on Monday to determine the intensity of these two tornadoes.

Cisco TX:
May 9 (Saturday). Tornado path was 10.6 miles long and 1400 yards wide and rated an EF 3 with wind speed of 140-145mph. There was 1 injury and 1 fatality associated with this tornado. The damage within the City of Cisco was consistent with and EF 3 damage rating.

Van TX:
May 10 (Sunday). Tornado path was 9.9 miles long and 700 yards wide and rated an EF 3 with wind speeds of 140mph. Much of the City of Van was damaged with nearly 40% of the town destroyed including several school buildings and numerous homes. There were 47 injuries and 2 fatalities in the town of Van associated with this tornado which occurred near dusk on Sunday. Most of the injuries were from residents shelter in their homes as the tornado impacted their structure.

The image below shows the Van TX tornado approaching the city near sunset Sunday with other images showing the EF 3 damage to the city.


Image: Tornado near Van, Texas






Air images from a news helicopter:

[gboudx]

Update from jeff regarding SETX flooding:

Excessive rainfall has occurred overnight yet again across the region.

Overnight rainfall has averaged 1-2 inches south of I-10 with amounts of 3-6 inches along the coast of Matagorda and Brazoria Counties and 5-6 inches over Corpus Christi in the last few hours. The winner was over 10.0 inches just off the coast of Matagorda County.

Well defined meso low is moving into the Gulf waters south of Matagorda Bay at this time and this feature will likely bring a period of very gusty winds to the nearshore waters for the next few hours as it moves eastward this morning. Tropical rain shield extends northeast from this feature across the western portions of SE TX, but is weakening with time. Not much confidence on how things will play out for the rest of today. Think the air mass will require a period of recovery even though it is still generally unstable. Moisture levels remain high and just a little bit of surface heating could set things off. No defined short wave can be found upstream over MX in the SW flow aloft and no defined surface boundaries (although there are likely some that just can’t be found lying around). Past experience with an offshore thunderstorm complex usually suggest inland areas will remain dry for several hours after the complex moves across the coastal waters.

Meso scale models are not showing much development this afternoon, but would not be surprised if something did try to develop given a few hours of heating. Next question then becomes when do thunderstorms refire over the region. Current model guidance is starting to hint at another weak short wave moving out of MX Wednesday afternoon and this would give the local air mass plenty of time to recover. Not overly confident in this solution, but think Wednesday late morning into the afternoon hours stands the next best chance for thunderstorms over the region.

Looking forward toward the end of the week the upper pattern undergoes little change with additional disturbances moving into the region from the SW. Some upper level ridging may attempt to exert itself over the region starting on Thursday, but moisture levels will remain elevated so the chance for showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast especially during the afternoon hours.

Pattern looks to possibly begin to repeat itself yet again heading into next weekend and early the following week with another upper level trough digging into the SW US and SW flow aloft developing over TX.

Rivers:

Flood waves have been generated on the Brazos, Trinity, Navasota, and San Jacinto Rivers over the last 24 hours due to upstream rainfall and ongoing flood gate releases at various dams.

Navasota River:
River is rising at Normangee and forecast to rise and crest near 17.1 ft on Thursday afternoon (15.0 ft Flood Stage). The river is expected to begin a slow fall Friday, but remain above flood stage through next weekend.

West Fork of the San Jacinto River:
Flood gate operations ongoing at Lake Conroe with 6380cfs currently being released. River is rising at I-45 and Porter and just starting to rise at Humble. SJRA believes they will be able to hold releases around 6400cfs today and stabilize the pool elevation of the lake. Lake Conroe is a water supply lake and not a flood control lake so they are required to pass inflows through the lake once they rise above their conservation level. The current lake level is 201.85ft or .85ft above their conservation pool level.

Current releases combined with uncontrolled inflow from Lake Creek will likely result in a rise of the river above flood stage at Porter. Current forecast has the river rising to near 28.0 ft Friday (Flood Stage: 24.0 ft). Major flooding level is 28.0 ft.

The river will rise at Humble (US 59), but is currently forecast to remain below flood stage and crest this weekend. The forecast for Humble is currently low confidence and a higher crest than currently being forecast is possible.

Brazos River:
Multiple flood waves are working down the Brazos River along with inflow from the Navasota River below Bryan and Lake Somerville. Current forecast for all points (Bryan, Hempstead, Richmond, Rosharon) keep the river below flood stage.

Trinity River:
Flood waves are moving downstream from N TX. Lake Livingston is currently releasing 32,800cfs resulting in a rise in the lower Trinity River. Like Conroe, Livingston is a water supply lake and is required to pass its inflows. The lake is currently 1 ft above its conservation pool elevation. The river above Lake Livingston at Riverside will rise to near Flood Stage later today and hold at that level for the next several days. Downstream of Lake Livingston, the river will rise to near flood stage at Liberty and hold at that level for several days.

Additional rainfall both locally and upstream over the next several days along with flood gate release changes will alter forecasts along these rivers.

River Forecast for both locally and statewide can be found at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/

[Annie Oakley]

http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/sitrepindex.htm

ftp://ftp.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/sitrep/ ... 051215.pdf

[TheProfessor]

I just noticed a new pond has developed behind my school, and we didn't even get some of those insane totals some places got.

[Ntxw]

I've been following the levels of the lakes around North Texas, and did some research. Folks forget these lakes are not just for water use but also flood control and often one Lake's events effects another downstream, such as gboudx' posts on Lavon releasing into Hubbard.

The streams and rivers have risen even in the urban areas, and Lakes Ray Robert and Lewisville protect the city of Dallas and many in the Trinity River basin. These lakes are going above flood stage with Lewisville rising an inch per hour as Roberts is forced to release. There's still 5-6ft they can hold before their spillways are toppled over uncontrolled and additional rain will begin flooding downstream. Lots of eyes at th corps of engineers this week to see how much will be released.

Texoma is rising rapidly as well, the events transpiring are not unlike what occured in 1957.

[Shoshana]

All this rain and The Highland Lakes here in Central Texas have seen very little of it.

http://hydromet.lcra.org/lakevolume/systemprofile.aspx

[gboudx]

NWS Fort Worth/Dallas Update for Heavy Rain/Severe Weather Potential
Submitted by wd5m on Tue, 2015-05-12 11:49

From: National Weather Service, Fort Worth
Date: Tuesday, 12 May 2015 10:19 CDT

Good morning everyone,

Another large-scale upper trough is setting up to our west, with abundant moisture returning from the Gulf. As a result, we're facing an ongoing chance of showers and thunderstorms over our area through the weekend. The severe weather threat is LOW, until the weekend. However, some heavy rainfall and localize flash flooding is likely to occur. Considerable river and lowland flooding will definitely continue this week. Here are some key points:

FLASH FLOOD/FLOOD THREATS:

TODAY: Flash flood threat low, overall. Average amounts will remain below 1 inch. Some spots west of a Gatesville-Weatherford-Graham line may pick up 1-2" through 6 pm, and this may aggravate existing lowland flooding that is already occurring in these areas.
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY: Flash flood threat moderate to high. Greatest flash flood threat west of I-35/I-35W. Average amounts 2-3 inches in this area, with isolated 4" amounts possible in our northwest counties. 1-2" possible east of I-35, with rainfall rates low in this area.
THURSDAY: Flash flood low. Average amounts less than one half inch.
FRIDAY/SATURDAY: Flash flood threat heightened. Some potential for new rainfall amounts of 1-3" across North Central Texas.
Mainstem river flooding and areal flooding in low lying areas will remain a significant problem across our area through the weekend
KEY NOTE: Please DO NOT put great focus on projected exact 5-day and 7-day rainfall totals. These are subject to considerable uncertainty. DO FOCUS on daily and shorter-term amounts that are tied to flash flooding and should be more accurate

SEVERE WEATHER THREATS:

Threat of severe thunderstorms is low through Friday
Large hail and damaging wind threat does increase Saturday and Sunday, especially west of I-35. Too early to tell specifics

RECOVERY OPERATIONS:

While severe weather risk is minimal, the lightning risk will remain significant in most of the impacted areas.
Command posts, EOCs, and other jurisdictions need to monitor weather conditions on radar for potential lightning
Do not hesitate to use NWSChat or call WFO Fort Worth/Dallas for ANY decision support needs

We'll provide another update no later than tomorrow morning at 10 am.

Tom

[TheProfessor]

So if all these lake have to drain there water, where does the water go?

[Ntxw]

So if all these lake have to drain there water, where does the water go?

Most are in the Trinity River Basin so down that river to SE Texas. If the River is full, lakes spill, and rain continues to fall then the urban areas near rivers and creeks begins to experience flooding.

So far lakes have held excess water being low before so flooding has been locally to heavy rain spots and low lying areas with poor drainage.

[weatherdude1108]

All this rain and The Highland Lakes here in Central Texas have seen very little of it.

http://hydromet.lcra.org/lakevolume/systemprofile.aspx

Isn't that frustrating? They even had more more heavy rain south of us last night.

Tonight may be the night for the Highland Lakes basin to get in on the action. Although we need several events like this to make a significant difference, instead of a foot or two here and there.

One would think the Hill Country would be a prime area for upslope flow of these PWATS to condense out and cause flash flooding due to the terrain.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

All this rain and The Highland Lakes here in Central Texas have seen very little of it.

http://hydromet.lcra.org/lakevolume/systemprofile.aspx

Isn't that frustrating? They even had more more heavy rain south of us last night.

Tonight may be the night for the Highland Lakes basin to get in on the action. Although we need several events like this to make a significant difference, instead of a foot or two here and there.

One would think the Hill Country would be a prime area for upslope flow of these PWATS to condense out and cause flash flooding due to the terrain.

In fairness, Lake Travis is up 7 feet since Jan 1. It just doesn't seem like much since it started the year 58 feet below full pool.

[weatherdude1108]

All this rain and The Highland Lakes here in Central Texas have seen very little of it.

http://hydromet.lcra.org/lakevolume/systemprofile.aspx

Isn't that frustrating? They even had more more heavy rain south of us last night.

Tonight may be the night for the Highland Lakes basin to get in on the action. Although we need several events like this to make a significant difference, instead of a foot or two here and there.

One would think the Hill Country would be a prime area for upslope flow of these PWATS to condense out and cause flash flooding due to the terrain.

In fairness, Lake Travis is up 7 feet since Jan 1. It just doesn't seem like much since it started the year 58 feet below full pool.

Yeah, you're right -- need to look at it as "half-full" (pardon the pun) or a "silver lining."

[Texas Snowman]

Texoma is rising rapidly as well, the events transpiring are not unlike what occured in 1957.

IMO, the difference with Texoma as compared to many other lakes - including a few of those in the Highland Chain of Central Texas - is that it is fed by two massive watersheds rather than one or two small ones.

Impounded in 1944, Texoma holds back the waters of the Red River (which drains the area all the way to the west of Childress) and the Washita River (which drains much of central Oklahoma around Oklahoma City and Chickasha).

With very heavy rains to the west, to the north and locally in the past week (up to 11-inches around the lakeshore over the weekend), it's little wonder that Texoma is surging upward right now.

Will it go from reaching normal elevation a week or so ago (616 and change) to the top of the spillway (640 feet) as it did in the spring of 1957, the spring of 1990 and in July 2007? As much rain as is currently in the forecast - and with little discharge from Denison Dam at the moment due to issues downstream - I'd say it's going to. If not, I think it will be really, really close.

For what it's worth, to me, this is very reminiscent of the spring of 1990 when it kept raining and raining and raining and raining. That spring, Texoma went gushing over the spillway by more than four-feet for a couple of weeks. It was quite the sight to see with the lake swelling to huge proportions, roads being washed out, the huge rush of water topping the spillway, and even a giant whirlpool near the intake structure at Denison Dam (where they had every flood tube cranked wide open).

[Texas Snowman]

You know, this spring has had many severe weather events and plenty of tornado warnings (Norman NWS tweeted earlier today that they had issued eight tornado warnings for the entire year of 2014 against 64 such warnings already issued so far for this year).

And yet the perception - to me, at least - of many is that this is an off year for tornadoes. When they have occurred, they've been weak, there haven't been any real outbreaks, no El Reno/Moore types of tornadoes, etc.

But the tornado in Van, Texas the other night needs to serve as a reminder - even in the middle of huge precipitation events and on days that don't seem like "tornado weather."

Because the truth is that strong, killer twisters can descend out of the skies (even at night) with little warning.