WPAC: DOLPHIN - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Impressive typhoon. Maybe a repeat of those monster typhoons? Like Gay, Tip and Vongfong perhaps.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

07W DOLPHIN 150513 0600 10.3N 155.3E WPAC 75 967

[xtyphooncyclonex]

TY 1507 (DOLPHIN)
Issued at 06:50 UTC, 13 May 2015

<Analyses at 13/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N10°20'(10.3°)
E155°25'(155.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 13/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N10°40'(10.7°)
E153°05'(153.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 14/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N11°30'(11.5°)
E150°40'(150.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 15/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N13°10'(13.2°)
E145°00'(145.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)

<Forecast for 16/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°05'(15.1°)
E140°25'(140.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL560km(300NM)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Rapidly warming eye

[euro6208]

Wow...

Pinhole?!?



No way this is only 75 knots with that impressive structure...

[euro6208]

We are now placed in Condition of Readiness 3 which means that damaging winds of 39-57 mph are expected within 48 hours.

Latest forecast now has a Category 3 typhoon in store for Guam!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Many people from Guam are chatting now in our FB group.. SAYING that this will be their next Pongsona, and gas stations are getting packed...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 MAY 2015 Time : 073000 UTC
Lat : 10:29:39 N Lon : 154:59:53 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 979.9mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 5.0 5.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -21.5C Cloud Region Temp : -57.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW AdjEnd
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 83km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 16.9 degrees

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue
Awaiting updated JTWC forecast for Typhoon Dolphin. My 5-day prog would have 170-knots as top intensity.

[euro6208]

That featurey outflow and small eye reminds me of Gay of 1992

[euro6208]

Wilma anyone?

[euro6208]

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH AND GREATER
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ82 PGUM 131112
HLSPQ2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON DOLPHIN (07W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
912 PM CHST WED MAY 13 2015

...TYPHOON DOLPHIN CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWEST...

.NEW INFORMATION...
AS OF 3 PM CHST...GUAM IS NOW IN CONDITION OF READINESS 3.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR RESIDENTS AND MARINERS IN GUAM...THE NORTHERN MARIANAS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...GUAM...
ROTA...TINIAN...SAIPAN AND THE MARIANAS WATERS.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON DOLPHIN (07W) WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 10.4N...LONGITUDE 154.8E...OR ABOUT 220 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF FANANU...ABOUT 710 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
GUAM AND 695 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.
STORM MOTION WAS A LITTLE NORTH OF WEST. STORM INTENSITY WAS 85
MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE EXACT WIND AND SURGE FORECAST VALUES
FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF EXTENSIVE DAMAGE EITHER ON GUAM OR SOMEWHERE
WITHIN THE NORTHERN MARIANAS.

...FANANU AND THE HALL ISLANDS...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL DOLPHIN PASSES WELL TO
THE WEST. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
AS TYPHOON DOLPHIN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE HALL ISLANDS. HOWEVER ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...PRODUCING DANGEROUS SURF UP TO 16 FEET.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAIN BAND VERY NEAR FANANU...IF THIS
SITS OVER THE ISLAND RAINFALL TOTALS COULD INCREASE TO BETWEEN 6
AND 9 INCHES.

...GUAM AND THE NORTHERN MARIANAS...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR TYPHOON DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO HEAD FOR SHELTER IF
NECESSARY. HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY
ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED.

FOR MARINERS...IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED
PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE
YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED
SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN
TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 3 AM CHST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-131915-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.A.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
912 PM CHST WED MAY 13 2015

...TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
STAY CALM AND KEEP INFORMED. IF YOUR HOME IS VULNERABLE TO HIGH
WINDS...OR YOU LIVE IN A SURGE ZONE OR ANY LOCATION PRONE TO
FLOODING...EVACUATE TO A DESIGNATED SHELTER OR RIDE OUT THE STORM
IN THE STURDY HOME OF FAMILY OR FRIENDS AWAY FROM THE SHORE.

ITEMS TO BRING TO A SHELTER INCLUDE A FIRST AID KIT...MEDICINES
AND PRESCRIPTIONS...BABY FOOD AND DIAPERS...GAMES AND BOOKS...
TOILETRIES...A BATTERY POWERED RADIO...A CELL PHONE...FLASHLIGHTS
WITH EXTRA BATTERIES...A BLANKET OR SLEEPING BAG FOR EACH
PERSON...PERSONAL IDENTIFICATION...COPIES OF KEY PAPERS SUCH AS
INSURANCE POLICIES...AVAILABLE CASH AND CREDIT CARDS. REMEMBER...
PETS ARE NOT ALLOWED IN MOST PUBLIC SHELTERS...SO CHECK AHEAD
WITH YOUR INTENDED SHELTER.

REGARDING YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS...COVER ALL WINDOWS AND DOORS
WITH SHUTTERS OR PLYWOOD. MOVE PATIO FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE
OBJECTS INDOORS. BRACE ALL EXTERIOR DOORS...INCLUDING GARAGE
DOORS. DO THIS AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE.

IF YOU NEED TO MAKE A TRIP TO THE HARDWARE STORE...THE GROCERY
STORE...OR THE GAS STATION...DO SO AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE.
BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE
BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TYPHOON DOLPHIN (07W) MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO ENTER THE MARIANAS WATERS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THEN EXIT LATE FRIDAY EVENING. TYPHOON FORCE
WINDS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE CENTER OF DOLPHIN.

SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FEET TONIGHT WILL BUILD AS DOLPHIN APPROACHES AND
COULD REACH 28 FEET NEAR THE CENTER.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
SURF OF 9 TO 11 FEET ON EAST FACING REEFS THURSDAY WILL BUILD TO
DANGEROUS LEVELS OF BETWEEN 15 AND 25 FEET AS DOLPHIN APPROACHES.
HIGHEST SURF WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE CENTER. AFTER DOLPHIN
PASSES...SURF WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 9 AND 12 FEET ON NORTH AND
WEST FACING REEFS AS EAST FACING REEFS SUBSIDE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CENTER OF DOLPHIN. CURRENT SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FROM THE IPAN BUOY ARE 84 DEGREES. THE PASSAGE OF
DOLPHIN COULD REDUCE THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO 82 OR 83 FOR
A FEW DAYS.

$$

STANKO

[Yellow Evan]

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm


Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 MAY 2015 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 10:40:12 N Lon : 154:05:45 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 976.0mb/ 82.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 4.7 4.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -40.0C Cloud Region Temp : -56.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 83km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 16.4 degrees

[cycloneye]

Up to 90kts.

07W DOLPHIN 150513 1200 10.6N 154.2E WPAC 90 956

[xtyphooncyclonex]

[xtyphooncyclonex]

That featurey outflow and small eye reminds me of Gay of 1992

http://i.imgur.com/4WXVOJv.gif
http://i.imgur.com/hm0FNmQ.jpg

Gay had a normal sized eye. It just had massive convection and a humongous wind field.

[cycloneye]

JTWC 15:00 UTC warning at 90kts. Will move thru Guam as a bonifide cat 3 Typhoon.



WDPN32 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 28//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 576 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A 10-NM EYE
AS CONVECTIVE BANDING DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON
CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG
EQUATORWARD BIAS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. IN THE NEAR TO MID-TERM, TY 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING AS FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO WARM ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, PERSIST. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE REACHED 120
KNOTS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY DOLPHIN WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE BREAK
IN THE STR CAUSED BY A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND PASSING THROUGH JAPAN. THIS POLEWARD TRACK WILL
EXPOSE THE CYCLONE TO INCREASED UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THIS INITIAL EXPOSURE WILL ENHANCE THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND TRIGGER RAPID INTENSIFICATION - REACHING SUPER
TYPHOON INTENSITY BY END OF FORECAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

110 kts for Guam? Borderline cat 3/4. I hope Guam will be safe and no repeat of Pongsona. Besides, if Haishen (this year) didn't get named and Pongsona was never retired despite impact, then this would be named PONGSONA too. Luckily, this is Dolphin, sounds quite friendly for a typhoon name tho...

[RL3AO]

JTWC is consistently too slow with rapid intensification (to be fair pretty much everyone is). However, to forecast an increase of 10kt in 12 hours and 15kt in 24 hours has a fairly small chance of verifying IMO.