Texas Spring-2015

[TheProfessor]

This is the "river" that developed behind my school because of recent rains, it's actually a very long trail of water that goes beyond eyesight, I'd need to be in a helicopter to get a good pic. The area used to be an awkward gap in the forest behind the school where no trees grew. They may have been cut down, but the area it's in wouldn't make since to only cut those trees.



Edit: I called it a pond earlier, but when I saw the long trail of water it definitely looks a bit more riverish. The picture doesn't show the whole thing, it continues to the right.

[EF-5bigj]

You know, this spring has had many severe weather events and plenty of tornado warnings (Norman NWS tweeted earlier today that they had issued eight tornado warnings for the entire year of 2014 against 64 such warnings already issued so far for this year).

And yet the perception - to me, at least - of many is that this is an off year for tornadoes. When they have occurred, they've been weak, there haven't been any real outbreaks, no El Reno/Moore types of tornadoes, etc.

But the tornado in Van, Texas the other night needs to serve as a reminder - even in the middle of huge precipitation events and on days that don't seem like "tornado weather."

Because the truth is that strong, killer twisters can descend out of the skies (even at night) with little warning.

I think people get complacent about tornadoes sure most are weak but not all are like you said they rapidly form and can become strong/violent killers. Greensburg was a nighttime event so that proves you're point their strength is very unpredictable and HP supercells are just as dangerous as none HP supercells.

[Texas Snowman]

The Denison/Sherman CBS affiliate, KXII-TV, reported tonight (with an interview with Fort Worth NWS employee) that the tornado that hopped through eastern Grayson County on Sunday afternoon (east of Denison near Cherry Mound, where many trees were snapped in two and bricks were knocked off a church) has been rated as an EF-1.

Also indicated that the tornado (hasn't been confirmed as one yet) near Gunter is still being investigated by Fort Worth NWS.

[SouthernMet]

Be careful out there today, alot of potential for flooding across the state..

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Central Tx set for a nice soaking today. Great for them and the lakes. Dallas, youre next with the same shield of rain. Last night we got a huge dumping down here. I was awoken by the flash flood warning on my phone.Dont have an entirely accurate number on how much it rained but it looks like around 2 inches according to other stations close by.

[Tireman4]

South of Houston got pounded last night. I mean pounded. My gracious. Preliminary reports are 9 inches around the Johnson Space Center. Even more in some spots.

WHAT A NIGHT FOR THE FOLKS IN CENTRAL BRAZORIA...NORTHERN
GALVESTON AND SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTIES AS HEAVY RAIN CORES
TRAVELED SOUTH FROM THE COAST...TRAINED...AND LAID DOWN ANYWHERE
FROM THREE TO OVER SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN OVER AN 8 HOUR PERIOD.
NUMEROUS INUNDATED ROADWAYS...STRANDED FLOODED VEHICLES...AND EVEN
A ROOF COLLAPSE AT A LOCAL FURNITURE STORE IN WEBSTER ARE JUST
SOME OF THE REPORTS THAT ARE COMING IN FROM THE CLEAR LAKE AREA.
RAINFALL HAS SIGNIFICANTLY TAPERED OFF WITH A FEW CELLS TRYING TO
REDEVELOP OVER BRAZORIA COUNTY AND HEAD NORTH TOWARDS THE METRO
AREA...WITH THE BULK OF THE FEW TENTHS TO NEAR 1.5 INCH HOURLY
RAIN RATES FOCUSED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER SAN JAC AND POLK
COUNTIES.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[Tireman4]

And more rain approaching from the West....sigh....

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
756 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2015

.UPDATE...
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE HEADING UP THE PIKE FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...HAVE INCREASED WESTERN CWA POPS A BIT WHILE
CONTINUING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING.
BE SAFE OUT THERE! 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2015/

AVIATION...
I-45 TERMINALS W/ EXCEPTION OF MAYBE UTS SHOULD BE TEMPORARILY
STABILIZED THRU MOST OF THE MORNING AND GET A DESERVED BREAK FROM
PRECIP. HOWEVER...EYES AGAIN LOOKING WEST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING BIG BEND AREA. ALREADY SEEING
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THIS FROM CRP EXTENDING NNE TO THE I-35
CORRIDOR. CLL WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
BEGINNING IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. MAY SEE EVERYTHING
EVOLVE INTO A LINE/BAND OF STORMS AND EDGE EASTWARD & TOWARD THE
METRO AIRPORTS 21-01Z. WHETHER THAT`LL BE ENOUGH TIME FOR ATMOS
OVER THAT AREA TO RECOVER OR NOT REMAINS TO BE SEEN. BUT GENERAL
OVERALL WX PATTERN HASN`T CHANGED MUCH & LOCALIZED STRONG STORMS &
HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. 47

[Ntxw]

South of Houston got pounded last night. I mean pounded. My gracious. Preliminary reports are 9 inches around the Johnson Space Center. Even more in some spots.

Of course! Lately if a storm doesn't dump 5+ inches of rain somewhere in Texas it's not cool . Crazy how easy it is to get these high totals.

[TheProfessor]

Those morning storms on May 10 really were intense, FWD thinks winds reached 85 mph here in Southlake and in Lewisville. I think I saw a picture of a tornado somewhere on Facebook from those storms, it probably wasn't reported in though.

[aggiecutter]

As of this morning, Texarkana is 11.50" above normal for rainfall for the year.

[weatherdude1108]

A recent Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion for western and central Texas put out by the WPC. Would hope this translates into the Colorado River watershed:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/m ... 81&yr=2015

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0081
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
829 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/WESTERN TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 131229Z - 131629Z

SUMMARY...DEEP MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT BEING ENHANCED BY THE
APPRAOCHING SOUTHERN STREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL H5 S/WV WILL INCREASE
THE FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN TX
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWING AN
INCREASE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS OF ORGANIZED AND LOCALLY HEAVY
CONVECTION THRU PARTS OF WESTERN TX..NEAR THE MID RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AREA. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND POSE AN INCREASE IN FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL INTO AT
LEAST THE LATER MORNING HOURS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
TX. THE APPROACH OF THE WELL DEFINED SOUTHERN STREAM MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL SUPPLY THE LARGE SCALE LIFT..WITH THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUING TO BRING IN DEEPER GULF
MOISTURE. PWS ARE ALREADY NEAR 2 INCHES AND THE AIRMASS SHOULD
REMAIN QUITE MOIST DUE TO THIS CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

A MAJORITY OF THE HIRES MODELS ARE INDICATING SIGNIFICANT RAINS
OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WITHIN THE THREAT AREA..INCLUDING THE
ARW..NMMB..WRF NSSL AND GEM REGIONAL. EXPECT SOME POSSIBLE 2 INCH
PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES..WITH SOME POSSIBLE 3-5 INCH RAINFALL
TOTALS BEFORE THE EVENT TAPERS OFF.

TERRY

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON 31089870 31029843 30869823 30529809 29949815
29389840 28879877 28539920 28459941 28419970
28419996 28440016 28560041 28750048 29240053
29860029 30429975 30479970 30979899

[Tireman4]

Buckle up....

https://www.facebook.com/ericbergerscig ... =1&theater

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I read one area may have had 12 inches between 9pm and midnight. Wowzers

[SouthernMet]

Tornado warning for Blanco/Hays counties, this cell is moving towards austin.

[Ntxw]

MCS rolling into Austin

[TheProfessor]

If that heavier rain in the Brentwood area moves in to the metroplex I think flash flood warnings will probably be issued due to already saturated grounds and flooded areas.

[Texas Snowman]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
846 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2015

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 05/10/15 GRAYSON COUNTY TORNADO EVENT...

.OVERVIEW...AN NWS SURVEY CREW HAS DETERMINED THAT A TORNADO WITH EF-1
DAMAGE OCCURRED IN NORTHEAST GRAYSON COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON OF
SUNDAY MAY 10TH. THIS TORNADO WAS SPAWNED BY THE SAME SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORM THAT EARLIER PRODUCED A TORNADO IN DENTON COUNTY.

ON SUNDAY...MAY 10TH...A TORNADO DEVELOPED IN EXTREME NORTHEAST GRAYSON
COUNTY...ALONG HIGHWAY 69 APPROXIMATELY 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF BELLS,TX.
THE TORNADO TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR 6.2 MILES...SNAPPING AND
UPROOTING NUMEROUS LARGE TREES. SOME LIGHT STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WAS
OBSERVED IN THE CHERRY MOUND CHURCH AREA ALONG FM-1753...JUST WEST OF
THE AMBROSE COMMUNITY. AT LEAST 20 PECAN TREES WERE DESTROYED
APPROXIMATELY 1.25 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHERRY MOUND CHURCH. THE TRACK
OF THE TORNADO TERMINATED AT THE SOUTH BANK OF THE RED RIVER IN THE
CARPENTERS BLUFF COMMUNITY...WHERE ADDITIONAL TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE
OCCURRED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SAME TORNADO TRACKED ACROSS THE RED
RIVER INTO BRYAN COUNTY OKLAHOMA...BUT THIS CANNOT BE CONFIRMED.

.BELLS/CARPENTERS BLUFF TORNADO...

RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 105 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 6.2 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 800 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: MAY 10 2015
START TIME: 4:02 PM CDT
START LOCATION: 3 NORTHWEST BELLS / GRAYSON / TX
START LAT/LON: 33.67 / -96.40

END DATE: MAY 10 2015
END TIME: 4:18 PM CDT
END LOCATION: 1 NORTH CARPENTERS BLUFF / GRAYSON / TX
END_LAT/LON: 33.75 / -96.40

[weatherdude1108]

Been a long time since I have seen LCRA mention "closely monitor conditions that may require flood operations at the dams that form the smaller of the Highland Lakes."

LCRA continues to closely monitor conditions that may require flood operations at the dams that form the smaller of the Highland Lakes. These are Inks Dam that forms Inks Lake, Wirtz Dam that forms Lake LBJ, Starcke Dam that forms Lake Marble Falls and Tom Miller Dam that forms Lake Austin. Lakes Buchanan and Travis remain far below full at this time, and flood operations are unlikely at Buchanan and Mansfield dams.

http://floodstatus.lcra.org

[gboudx]

Update from jeff:

A little drier today as weak ridging aloft attempts to build over the region…but the break looks short.

Air mass remains very moist and unstable across the region and surface heating will result in this air mass becoming more unstable by mid to late morning into the early afternoon hours. No real focus for thunderstorms to develop on today with lack of any surface boundary or approaching short wave impulse out of MX…thus surface heating will be the main driver of storms. Meso scale models are not really showing much today, but would not be surprised if scattered thunderstorms developed once the temperatures rise into the lower 80’s. Storm motions do look to be on the slower side again and with PWS still 1.7 inches or greater…heavy rainfall is certainly possible. Feel the general disorganization today of activity should preclude much of a flash flood threat.

Friday:
Weak ridging weakens on Friday and an impulse heads toward the region during the afternoon hours. High resolution models are showing scattered thunderstorms Friday afternoon mainly NW of US 59. Moisture levels will remain high and the potential for excessive hourly rainfall rates will be possible, but activity should once again remain scattered and generally disorganized.

Saturday:
Upper level ridging does gain a bit more ground and the global models show lowering rain chances however the TX TECH WRF model shows a large thunderstorm complex moving out of WC TX toward SE TX so this potential will have to be watched for raising of rain chances on Saturday.

Sunday-Early Next Week:
Rain chances will increase yet again as this wet pattern continues. A weak frontal boundary will move into the area from the NNE and help to focus and add organization to thunderstorms. Pattern will support a heavy/excessive rainfall threat again with high moisture levels, slow storm motions, and a surface boundary.

Hopefully rainfall over the next few days will remain scattered enough to allow grounds to dry and area watersheds to recede some prior to the onset of potential more significant rainfall next week.

[Ntxw]

Just look at what the Texas drought has been reduced to. No exceptional drought anywhere in Texas. Even around Wichita Falls it has improved immensely and dramatic. You'd take this even in a normal good year.