WPAC: DOLPHIN - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Power still on with the occasional flickering of the lights...

[euro6208]

Easily gusting to typhoon force winds at my location with heavy downpour...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

God bless you, euro, and to all those in Guam! Hope you all will be safe

[euro6208]

Gaining strength over them high OHC

[xtyphooncyclonex]

From a resident:

"Average 65 max gust 86.8 knots at maite"

[USCG_Hurricane_Watcher]

Checking in from the village of Santa Rita, Guam...A couple of villages on the east side of the island have been getting pounded and the bulk of the damage/outages appear to be up north.

It appears the movement of the eye back towards Guam/Rota vice Rota/Tinian caught a lot of folks off guard...It's deteriorating here quickly. Should be through the worst of it in a few hours. Still have power though, so far so good.

More to follow provided connectivity remains stable.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Checking in from the village of Santa Rita, Guam...A couple of villages on the east side of the island have been getting pounded and the bulk of the damage/outages appear to be up north.

It appears the movement of the eye back towards Guam/Rota vice Rota/Tinian caught a lot of folks off guard...It's deteriorating here quickly. Should be through the worst of it in a few hours. Still have power though, so far so good.

More to follow provided connectivity remains stable.

Wow... Looks like in 2-4 hours from now, you would get the brunt of the storm. Now, how strong are the winds over there in Santa Rita?

Right now, it's dangerously close to Guam

[USCG_Hurricane_Watcher]

We're getting gusts between 65 and 75...should be interesting once it passes as we lose the protection of the hills to our east and north (we're on the west side near Orote).

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I'll not be surprised to see gusts exceeding 125 mph (about 110 kts) over Andersen AFB and nearby areas over northern Guam... Maybe a lot of damage from this one, sadly like Pongsona 12 and a half years back.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WDPN32 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 35//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 35 NM EAST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A DEEP CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE ANDERSON AIR FORCE BASE, GUAM RADAR
LOOP SHOWS INTENSE CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 150626Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
RADAR LOOP ALSO REVEALS THAT THE TRANSLATIONAL SPEED OF TY DOLPHIN
HAS SLOWED (8-10 KNOTS) AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES GUAM. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 95 KNOTS BASED ON CONSENSUS DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT OBSERVATIONS
FROM PGUA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TYPHOON DOLPHIN IS LOCATED
IN AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KNOT) SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
BEING OFFSET BY DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TYPHOON 07W HAS SHIFTED ON
A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY AS AN EXTENSION OF THE STEERING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) HAS BUILT IN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE; HOWEVER, THE FORECAST
TRACK HAS SHIFTED EQUATORWARD IN RESPONSE TO PERSISTENT WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
B. TYPHOON DOLPHIN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ON A SLIGHT WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
MODIFIED STR, WITH THE TYPHOON PASSING JUST NORTH OF GUAM. OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED,
LEADING TO A SLOW INTENSIFICATION RATE. BY TAU 36, THE STEERING STR
IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING TY 07W TO BEGIN
THE POLEWARD TURN. AS TY DOLPHIN ROUNDS THE STR AXIS, IT WILL GAIN
AN INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL FROM THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES CONTINUING THE INTENSIFICATION RATE AND REACHING A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS. BEYOND TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE THE
POLEWARD TURN AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY DOLPHIN WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR. CONCURRENTLY, THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF INCREASING VWS AND
COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE THE
SYSTEM, LEADING TO ITS WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN
CONSISTENT; HOWEVER, THEY STILL BEGIN THE FIRST 24 HOURS ON A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. DUE TO THIS, THE INITIAL 24 HOURS OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS LAID ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
USING PAST SIX HOUR PERSISTENCE. MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE RECURVE
TRACK AND TIMING; THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[USCG_Hurricane_Watcher]

I'll not be surprised to see gusts exceeding 125 mph (about 110 kts) over Andersen AFB and nearby areas over northern Guam... Maybe a lot of damage from this one, sadly like Pongsona 12 and a half years back.

Yep, up north is taking a beating right now...they don't have the hills to knock down the wind. We'll see at first light tomorrow.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I wonder how our fellow member euro6208 is doing now, he hasn't posted anything for the past hour.

[USCG_Hurricane_Watcher]

Max gusts at Won Pat are ~ 73mph and ~ 97mph at Andersen AFB.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

From a resident:

"Average 65 max gust 86.8 knots at maite"

Radar from the official NWS earlier has already confirmed 105 knts a report from a resident is not the most reliable place to get your information from. Actual wind speed in the eyewall maybe quite a bit stronger hoping a official wss station can get the reading.

They recorded it prior to the 105 kt gust. Plus the resident recorded it from a Weather station, check Weather Underground

http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... story.html

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Pressure falling over Guam, AFB now at 975.2 mb as of 6:37PM local time

Winds now exceeding >91 kts

Personally, I would bump Dolphin's intensity to 110 kts currently, since AFB is over the S portion of the eyewall

[USCG_Hurricane_Watcher]

Pressure falling over Guam, AFB now at 975.2 mb as of 6:37PM local time

Winds now exceeding >91 kts

Personally, I would bump Dolphin's intensity to 110 kts currently, since AFB is over the S portion of the eyewall

What are you showing for Rota....I'd have to imagine they're getting smacked right now.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Pressure falling over Guam, AFB now at 975.2 mb as of 6:37PM local time

Winds now exceeding >91 kts

Personally, I would bump Dolphin's intensity to 110 kts currently, since AFB is over the S portion of the eyewall

What are you showing for Rota....I'd have to imagine they're getting smacked right now.

I think so, maybe 120 kt gusts for them, since they're over the stronger part of the eyewall. No data coming from that island

IMO AFB would get stronger winds/gusts, since the eyewall would pass closer to Guam after jogging W/WSW

[USCG_Hurricane_Watcher]

Pressure falling over Guam, AFB now at 975.2 mb as of 6:37PM local time

Winds now exceeding >91 kts

Personally, I would bump Dolphin's intensity to 110 kts currently, since AFB is over the S portion of the eyewall

What are you showing for Rota....I'd have to imagine they're getting smacked right now.

I think so, maybe 120 kt gusts for them, since they're over the stronger part of the eyewall. No data coming from that island

IMO AFB would get stronger winds/gusts, since the eyewall would pass closer to Guam after jogging W/WSW

Yeah, but we've got to worry about the ports not only in Guam, but also Rota, Tinian and Saipan...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Agree, but Guam is the main concern since it's the biggest and most populated island. Plus, the storm is passing closest to Guam actually, no longer Rota. Vongfong last year, like Super Typhoon Keith, passed between the islands and ports of Tinian and Rota.

[cycloneye]

Impressive closeup of eye.