Texas Spring-2015

[TheProfessor]

It's looking like a big Day in Kansas, Oklahoma and the Wichita Falls area tomorrow. It doesn't look nearly as bad here in North Texas, but stay alert otherwise, especially if we don't see morning convection. It does seem like we get hit when they aren't expecting it.

[TheProfessor]

Denton and Tarrant Counties have been included in to the enhanced risk, Northwest Denton County is under the 10% Tornado area.

[Brent]

Looks like a solid line is coming after 1-2am for most of the metro.. marginal hail/wind threat, tornado threat probably near zero, flood threat very high.

in tonight's daily you need an ark post:

[TheProfessor]

Just don't name your Ark the Titanic! lol

[Brent]

That bow echo moving into Tarrant and Denton Counties has produced wind damage in Mineral Wells and Weatherford

[Ntxw]

Raining crazy here my yard can't handle much more. Dallas county is getting dumped on this morning, been a good hour already of it.

[Ntxw]

Texoma is now 16ft above conservation pool. More rain is expected in North Texas and Oklahoma this week. Looks like a trip to the spillway with cameras may be warranted soon, for the 4th time in its history.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Based on the GFS, the stream of moisture will continue to pump right in West-Central Tx. No end in sight.

[Brent]

Another 2.20" of rain this morning... that brings us to almost 4" just since Wednesday.

[Ntxw]

Yeah as TPB said, the models keep the rains going. There is no end in sight the pattern is stagnant with the endless waterhose. Its going to start again in W Texas early this week and progress. 30 day SOI is now near -15 which signals the atmosphere is acting more like a strong Nino event. 1957 and 1991 esque weather patterns.

[Brent]

Just saw this on facebook, unbelievable...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yeah as TPB said, the models keep the rains going. There is no end in sight the pattern is stagnant with the endless waterhose. Its going to start again in W Texas early this week and progress. 30 day SOI is now near -15 which signals the atmosphere is acting more like a strong Nino event. 1957 and 1991 esque weather patterns.

Are these the best analogs for this potential event?

In otherwords, what years was the pacific this warm around this time or going into the summer.

Also, just put up my new weather station. Ambient weather observerIP, 1400 series. So far im very happy with it. I didnt get the tablet since i have an ipad, but i am very happy with it so far. Hoping these storms stay together to test out the rain guage.

[Ntxw]

It is warmer than those events at the moment, and it is a rare multiyear Nino. However the atmosphere reaction is strong similar to those years so they are a good fit.

[EF-5bigj]

At this rate whatever drought you guys have left will be washed away in a matter of weeks.

[Brent]

At this rate whatever drought you guys have left will be washed away in a matter of weeks.

it's taken a big hit already... the northern and eastern metroplex is already out of drought and this was before the rain of the last 5 days:

[Tireman4]

Fun times in the Houston Metro area....

DISCUSSION...
NOW GETTING RATES >2"/HR. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME FF ISSUES AND
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH GENERALLY NORTH OF A COLUMBUS-LIVINGSTON
LINE. HARRIS IS NOT INCLUDED ATTM BUT WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE TRENDS.
47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015/
SFC ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS A REMNANT BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM ROUGHLY
LIVINGSTON TO COLUMBUS. HAVE SEEN AN INCREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE
ALONG THIS FEATURE IN THE PAST HOUR AS SLY LLVL FLOW FROM THE
GULF FEEDS INTO IT. PW`S AROUND 2" ARE IN THE REGION AND UPPER FLOW
IS NOTICEABLY DIFFLUENT OVER SAME BOUNDARY. W/V IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
SOME WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT APPROACHING FROM S
TX. ANTICIPATE CONTINUED INCREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE THRU THE
MORNING WITH A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR REGENERATING/TRAINING LOCALIZED
CLUSTERS OF RAINFALL - SOME LOCALLY HEAVY. STILL CONTEMPLATING A FFA
AND MIGHT PULL THE TRIGGER LATER THIS MORNING AFTER KEEPING EYE ON TRENDS
FOR A WHILE. GUIDANCE SUGGEST 2-2.5" COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS IF IT WERE TO
FALL IN AN HOUR, 2.8-3.3 IN 3 HOURS. THINK WE`LL NEED TO WATCH FOR
COVERAGE TO FILL IN SOUTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF W/ LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT.

TROF CURRENTLY OVER CA WILL KICK OUT AND INTO NCNTL PLAINS ON TUE
AND ITS REPLACEMENT WILL DROP BACK INTO PLACE MID/LATE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
SLIGHT H5 RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM MEXICO &
GULF AS THIS OCCURS...STILL ANTICIPATE DAILY SCT SHRA/TSTMS WITH
HEATING.

THINGS GET INTERESTING AGAIN BY THURS AS MOST MODELS (W/ EXCEPTION
OF GFS) BRING A FRONT INTO THE REGION & PROVIDE ANOTHER BOUNDARY
TO WORK WITH. UNSETTLED WX WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND (ESP SUN/MON) AS WESTERN TROF APPROACHES. 47

[gboudx]

2 updates from jeff:

Dangerous flash flood event underway over SE TX.

Since 400am upwards of 5-7 inches of rain has fallen on top of already extremely saturated grounds from Columbus to southern Grimes County. Widespread flash flooding is rapidly developing over the counties of : Grimes, Washington, Waller, Austin, and northern Colorado.

This is a life threatening flash flood situation. Numerous small creeks and rural roadways are flooding. Avoid all low water crossings and do not drive into high water. Significant flooding is likely in the Flash Flood Warning areas.

Highly active pattern remains in place.

Another complex of thunderstorms moved across the region this afternoon with more heavy rainfall especially west of I-45. Air mass has stabilized behind this complex as it pushes eastward into Louisiana. High resolution guidance did not handle the event well at all today…and don’t have much confidence going forward in any of the model guidance as the activity continues to be generated and controlled by the meso scale…small disturbances and ill defined boundaries.

Sure there are plenty of boundaries left behind after the activity this afternoon…most defined is right along the coast where a few showers keep trying to develop. Deeper moisture defined by “haze/smoke” on visible images is returning NW across S TX into the coastal bend and will overspread SE TX form the SSW tonight as the nocturnal low level jet increasing.

Main forecast challenge over the next several days will be timing thunderstorms and if any heavy to excessive rainfall will occur on already Saturday grounds. Have very little confidence on timing of when and where storms will fire. Think the air mass is fairly worked over tonight…so not expecting anything coming out of SW TX where complexes have formed the last few days. Meso models have been hinting at storms developing tomorrow to our NE along a weak frontal zone and moving SSW into the area during the afternoon hours…this seems as much possible as any number of other solutions including storms forming over the area with heating on Monday. Storm motions looks fairly slow on Monday afternoon and evening so excessive rainfall will once again be the main threat. Unfortunately, areas that have been hit the hardest this past week (north of I-10) look to stand the best chance for heavy rainfall on Monday.

Hard to time disturbances will eject out of the SW flow aloft this week and likely develop storm complexes to our west. Upper level high pressure will attempt to gain some ground over the region and force the track of these disturbances and resulting storm complexes north and SE TX…at least that is the thought at the moment. Models have been forecasting upper level ridging to develop at the end of last week and that did not verify well.

Whole large scale pattern undergoes yet another upper level storm dropping into the SW US by the end of next week and if we do in fact get a break in the rain mid week…it looks to come to an end for the end fo the week into the Memorial Day weekend with storm chances on the increase again.

Rainfall Numbers:

If you thought it has been really wet…you are right. This is the most spring rainfall the region and state has seen in several years and it has gone a long way in helping to reduce the impacts of the long term drought that has held across much of the state since 2008.

Rainfall has been widespread and heavy in the month of May. So far this month the following sites have recorded the following rainfall through May 16th:

BUSH IAH: 3.16 (+.52)
College Station: 4.48 (+2.29)
Hobby: 5.98 (+3.71)
Conroe: 7.43 (+4.93)
Sugar Land: 5.33 (+2.86)
Corpus Christi: 8.12 (+6.62)
Victoria: 3.60 (+.60)
Austin: 4.96 (+3.59)

Rainfall for the first 15 days of May is running 90% to nearly 600% of normal. The corridor from near College Station to Lake Livingston has recorded rainfall for the first two weeks of May of 300% to 500% above normal. A small area over Houston County has recorded rainfall of 600% above normal over the last two weeks. Rainfall amounts across much of south TX have averaged 200%-400% above normal.

This has resulted in the river flooding across the region and the filling of lakes that have been struggling to maintain conservation pools since the end of 2008. In fact many lakes in east Texas have been and portions of north Texas which began 2015 with below to well below normal pool levels have been in flood operations over the last two weeks.

Well above average rainfall in March and April saturated the grounds over much of Texas and the recent heavy rainfall has produce significant run-off into area rivers and lakes.

Rainfall Departures since Jan 1, 2015:

Huntsville: +13.88
League City: +13.31
Hobby: +10.46
Angleton: +10.39
College Station: +8.36
Conroe: +4.11
Tomball: +4.77
Sugar Land: +8.71
BUSH IAH: +3.61
Corpus Christi: +15.42
Victoria:+9.64

This has been the first year since 2012 in which rainfall for the first 1/3rd of the start of the year has been above average.

Water Supply and Lake Reponses:
The current state wide storage is 77.7% up from 65% one year ago and 3 months ago. This is the highest state wide storage since 2012. As good as it has been, the stats below show just how extreme the hydrologic drought has been and how much more rainfall is needed to bring some lakes to normal.

Lake: below normal (% of normal pool)

Buchanan: -29.05 ft (39%)
Conroe: +.68 (100%)
EV Spence: -70.58 (2.9%)
Georgetown: -10.50 (67%)
Sam Rayburn: +3.94 (100%)
Somerville: +8.80 (100%)
Livingston: +1.51 (100%)
Texanna: 0.00 (100%)
Travis: -49.26 (39%)
Canyon: -7.81 (84%)

Lake Travis reached a low of -58.95 (31%) around the middle of November 2014 and has since rose 9.70 ft since last November. Even with the rainfall…the amount of inflow into the Highland Lakes on the middle Colorado basin continues to be staggeringly low. Since Jan 1, 2015 to April 30th the inflow has been 70,974 acre-feet (339,651 is average) which is why Lake Travis remains so low. The April 2015 inflows were only 22% of normal. The hydrologic drought in this portion of the state has been the worst since the 1930’s and recent heavy rains have largely missed this area resulting in little drought recovery.

[gboudx]

More from jeff:

Extremely heavy rainfall continues over SE TX.

Since 400am 8.0 inches has fallen over SW Grimes County with widespread 3.0-7.0 inches from Fayette County to Grimes County.

Flash Flood Warnings continues for several counties with significant flooding ongoing.

There is a general weakening trend with the ongoing activity and cell motions have been increasing especially with storms along I-10. With the heaviest rainfall shifting north out of SE TX and along and just north of I-10…or off the hard hit locations.

This remains a serious and potentially life threatening flash flood situation. Numerous small creeks are overflowing their banks flooding normally dry low water crossings and bridges. Residents should avoid travel in the flash flood warning area until flood waters subside.

[Tireman4]

Yep, fun times in Houston. Fun times. Nothing in Humble, yet. ( Thunder and lightning, yes). It is coming.

[gboudx]

More from jeff:

Ongoing flood flow continue to move down area rivers.

Excessive rainfall this morning will cause new rises especially on the Brazos River basin.

Trinity River:
River is above flood stage at Riverside, Liberty, and Moss Bluff and will remain above flood stage for the next several days as water from north Texas moves through the system. Subdivision around Liberty may become cut-off.

West Fork of the San Jacinto River:
River is overbanks at Porter and has rose overbanks at Humble again overnight due to the rainfall yesterday afternoon. River should continue a slow recession, although heavy rainfall across the headwaters this morning may alter the forecasted recession.

East Fork of the San Jacinto River:
River has fallen back within banks and will continue a slow fall. Additional rainfall over the basin yesterday and this morning may alter this recession forecast.

Brazos River:
River has begun a sharp rise at Hempstead after 8-9 inches of rainfall just north of that location this morning. Expect a new rise to begin along the entire lower Brazos basin in the next 24 hours..not sure how high the rise will be at Hempstead, Richmond and Rosharon, but it should remain below flood stage at least at Hempstead and Richmond.

Guadalupe River:
River will begin a steep rise at Victoria today and crest near moderate flood levels by the middle of the week.

Rainfall this morning and additional rainfall over the next few days will likely alter current river forecast and recessions. Residents are advised to remain alert to river conditions.

Regarding the Trinity here in DFW, it has spilled over it's banks and flooded parks and trails. And this is just one fork of the river flowing water down to SETX. Another fork including lakes Lavon and Ray Hubbard will continue rising as both lakes are releasing excess water.