WPAC: DOLPHIN - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: WPAC: DOLPHIN - Typhoon
This is bombing.
TXPQ21 KNES 151512
TCSWNP
A. 07W (DOLPHIN)
B. 15/1432Z
C. 14.6N
D. 144.0E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T6.0/6.0/D1.5/18HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...MG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG AND EMBEDDED IN WHITE YIELDS A
DT OF 6.0. NO EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET IS 6.0 AND PT IS 5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...VELASCO
TPPN11 PGTW 151507
A. TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN)
B. 15/1432Z
C. 14.57N
D. 144.01E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. MG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 6.0. MET AND PT
YIELD A 5.5. DBO MET.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
15/1016Z 13.87N 144.87E GPMI
15/1114Z 13.98N 144.52E MMHS
15/1201Z 14.13N 144.68E MMHS
BERMEA
TXPQ21 KNES 151512
TCSWNP
A. 07W (DOLPHIN)
B. 15/1432Z
C. 14.6N
D. 144.0E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T6.0/6.0/D1.5/18HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...MG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG AND EMBEDDED IN WHITE YIELDS A
DT OF 6.0. NO EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET IS 6.0 AND PT IS 5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...VELASCO
TPPN11 PGTW 151507
A. TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN)
B. 15/1432Z
C. 14.57N
D. 144.01E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. MG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 6.0. MET AND PT
YIELD A 5.5. DBO MET.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
15/1016Z 13.87N 144.87E GPMI
15/1114Z 13.98N 144.52E MMHS
15/1201Z 14.13N 144.68E MMHS
BERMEA
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- xtyphooncyclonex
- Category 5
- Posts: 3688
- Age: 22
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So bearish.
WTPN32 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 14.0N 144.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 144.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.0N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 16.4N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.1N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.7N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 22.6N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 25.8N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 29.8N 148.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 144.0E.
TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 29 NM NORTHWEST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
151200Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z
AND 161500Z.//
NNNN
WTPN32 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 14.0N 144.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 144.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.0N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 16.4N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.1N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.7N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 22.6N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 25.8N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 29.8N 148.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 144.0E.
TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 29 NM NORTHWEST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
151200Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z
AND 161500Z.//
NNNN
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139719
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC: DOLPHIN - Typhoon
Great footage from chasers Jim Edds and James Reynolds in Rota.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D4xNEqW ... e=youtu.be
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=87rwBCH ... e=youtu.be
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D4xNEqW ... e=youtu.be
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=87rwBCH ... e=youtu.be
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139719
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC: DOLPHIN - Typhoon
Typhoon Dolphin is now forecast to peak at 145kts.
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- 1900hurricane
- Category 5
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Looking better, but dry air is still lurking about. A fairly tough intensity forecast still lies ahead.
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Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
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- Tropical Storm
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Re: WPAC: DOLPHIN - Typhoon
Dolphin has definitely gotten better organized and may impact Iwo To later this week. It should be peaking out as a category 5 if it continues to gain strength.
Synopsis on Dolphin and others: http://goo.gl/xYI9yf
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Synopsis on Dolphin and others: http://goo.gl/xYI9yf
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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- cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: DOLPHIN - Typhoon
JTWC 03:00 UTC warning up to 115kts.
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- 1900hurricane
- Category 5
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My intensity forecast busted earlier, but now that Dolphin has a more stable inner core, I'm thinking it will really show what it is made of in the overnight.
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- xtyphooncyclonex
- Category 5
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Wow
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- xtyphooncyclonex
- Category 5
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Really going kaboom, bonkers
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Re: WPAC: DOLPHIN - Typhoon
Hey guys I'm back.
WOW! I truly underestimated Dolphin big time.
The southern eyewall passed over my location in the north bringing gust of over 100 mph for several hours and out of power since then. Honestly I slept through most of it but kept waking up to loud thumps.
The only damage around my house i've seen thus far is big trees uprooted and accessing the damage throughout Guam, barely any structural damage but lots of flooding and uprooted trees. Many people still in grocery mode and recovery begins.
We were very lucky that shear and dry air hampered it's intensification or else we would have dealt with a much stronger typhoon...
Strongest typhoon and first direct hit since STY Pongsona in 2002...
WOW! I truly underestimated Dolphin big time.
The southern eyewall passed over my location in the north bringing gust of over 100 mph for several hours and out of power since then. Honestly I slept through most of it but kept waking up to loud thumps.
The only damage around my house i've seen thus far is big trees uprooted and accessing the damage throughout Guam, barely any structural damage but lots of flooding and uprooted trees. Many people still in grocery mode and recovery begins.
We were very lucky that shear and dry air hampered it's intensification or else we would have dealt with a much stronger typhoon...
Strongest typhoon and first direct hit since STY Pongsona in 2002...
Last edited by euro6208 on Sat May 16, 2015 2:51 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: DOLPHIN - Typhoon
WOW!
TPPN11 PGTW 160610
A. TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN)
B. 16/0532Z
C. 15.86N
D. 141.49E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T7.0/7.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
(+1.0 ADJUSTMENT FOR WHITE) YIELDS A DT OF 7.0. MET AND PT WERE
6.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
16/0032Z 15.13N 142.13E MMHS
LONG
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Re: WPAC: DOLPHIN - Typhoon
Now a Super Typhoon!
07W DOLPHIN 150516 0600 15.8N 141.5E WPAC 130 926
WDPN32 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 39//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 07W DOLPHIN LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 234 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL 25 NM
EYE AS SUPER DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS IS BASED ON
AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD
AND REFLECTS THE SYSTEMS RAPID INTENSIFICATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE RIDGE AXIS AND REMAINS IN A
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AREA. ADDITIONALLY, EXCELLENT DUAL
OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AFTERWARDS, IT WILL ROUND
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND CROSS INTO THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE
RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. CONTINUED FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) AND INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONCURRENT WITH THE SYSTEMS
INITIAL EXPOSURE TO THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, WILL FUEL
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 145 KNOTS BETWEEN TAU 24-36.
AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE
SYSTEM. BY TAU 72, STY 07W WILL COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) AS IT GETS EMBEDDED IN THE COLD BAROCLINIC AIR MASS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, STY DOLPHIN WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AND DEEPER INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. HIGH VWS, COOLING
SSTS, AND INFLUX OF COLD DRY AIR WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST, THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE ETT AND TRANSFORM
INTO A STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
07W DOLPHIN 150516 0600 15.8N 141.5E WPAC 130 926
WDPN32 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 39//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 07W DOLPHIN LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 234 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL 25 NM
EYE AS SUPER DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS IS BASED ON
AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD
AND REFLECTS THE SYSTEMS RAPID INTENSIFICATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE RIDGE AXIS AND REMAINS IN A
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AREA. ADDITIONALLY, EXCELLENT DUAL
OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AFTERWARDS, IT WILL ROUND
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND CROSS INTO THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE
RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. CONTINUED FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) AND INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONCURRENT WITH THE SYSTEMS
INITIAL EXPOSURE TO THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, WILL FUEL
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 145 KNOTS BETWEEN TAU 24-36.
AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE
SYSTEM. BY TAU 72, STY 07W WILL COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) AS IT GETS EMBEDDED IN THE COLD BAROCLINIC AIR MASS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, STY DOLPHIN WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AND DEEPER INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. HIGH VWS, COOLING
SSTS, AND INFLUX OF COLD DRY AIR WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST, THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE ETT AND TRANSFORM
INTO A STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: DOLPHIN - Typhoon
I will sound like a broken record describing how active the WPAC basin has always been. But I think it's worth to note that having a third Category 5 before the end of May is a great feat even in this part of the world...
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: DOLPHIN - Typhoon
Wow.Look at those mesovortices inside the eye of SuperTyphoon Dolphin.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp ... s_anim.gif
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp ... s_anim.gif
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- cycloneye
- Admin
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Re: WPAC: DOLPHIN - Typhoon
07W DOLPHIN 150516 1200 16.5N 140.6E WPAC 135 922
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- cycloneye
- Admin
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Re: WPAC: DOLPHIN - Typhoon
JTWC warning at 15:00 UTC intensity is up to 135kts and peak is up to 145kts.With the 135kt data,the ACE units for the West Pacific 2015 Typhoon season is now up to 96.1725 and that is #1 before May 31rst.It just surpassed the 1976 94.7 units to reach the first position.
http://weather.graphics/wpac_ace_thru_May31
http://weather.graphics/wpac_ace_thru_May31
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- TheAustinMan
- Category 5
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Re: WPAC: DOLPHIN - Typhoon
TheAustinMan wrote:It appears that an eyewall replacement cycle is underway for Typhoon Dolphin. 85GHz below is from 10:14 UTC 05/16.
(image)
Well, there go the chances for C5.
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Re: WPAC: DOLPHIN - Typhoon
Dolphin is a borderline category 5 typhoon and it will continue to get stronger. With the core eye and perfect outflow, this typhoon looks perfectly organized. And the warmer waters and low wind shear will allow for some more strengthening before a weakening trend starts int the next 48 hours. However, right now, the core eye is weakening. It may appear that it is going through a replacement cycle now.
Synopsis on Dolphin and others: http://goo.gl/UU9V96
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Synopsis on Dolphin and others: http://goo.gl/UU9V96
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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