Texas Spring-2015

[weatherdude1108]

More from jeff:

Ongoing flood flow continue to move down area rivers.

Excessive rainfall this morning will cause new rises especially on the Brazos River basin.

Trinity River:
River is above flood stage at Riverside, Liberty, and Moss Bluff and will remain above flood stage for the next several days as water from north Texas moves through the system. Subdivision around Liberty may become cut-off.

West Fork of the San Jacinto River:
River is overbanks at Porter and has rose overbanks at Humble again overnight due to the rainfall yesterday afternoon. River should continue a slow recession, although heavy rainfall across the headwaters this morning may alter the forecasted recession.

East Fork of the San Jacinto River:
River has fallen back within banks and will continue a slow fall. Additional rainfall over the basin yesterday and this morning may alter this recession forecast.

Brazos River:
River has begun a sharp rise at Hempstead after 8-9 inches of rainfall just north of that location this morning. Expect a new rise to begin along the entire lower Brazos basin in the next 24 hours..not sure how high the rise will be at Hempstead, Richmond and Rosharon, but it should remain below flood stage at least at Hempstead and Richmond.

Guadalupe River:
River will begin a steep rise at Victoria today and crest near moderate flood levels by the middle of the week.

Rainfall this morning and additional rainfall over the next few days will likely alter current river forecast and recessions. Residents are advised to remain alert to river conditions.

Regarding the Trinity here in DFW, it has spilled over it's banks and flooded parks and trails. And this is just one fork of the river flowing water down to SETX. Another fork including lakes Lavon and Ray Hubbard will continue rising as both lakes are releasing excess water.

Crazy! I think the last time Travis released excess water (minus any testing/maintenance of flood gates) was in Summer 2007. No idea of history of Buchanan flood gate operations.

[Tejas89]

Snippet at the end of the FWD discussion...

LOOKING AHEAD...A PATTERN CHANGE IS EVIDENT FOR THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...INCLUDING NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...FROM MID NEXT WEEK
ON. RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTERIOR WEST
AND WILL SHUNT WEST COAST UPPER LOWS MORE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AS WE FINISH OUT MAY AND MOVE INTO JUNE.

[TheProfessor]

If WPC's 7 day precipitation forecast were to verify this morning, the little drought that is left in Texas will probably disappear.

[Brent]

If WPC's 7 day precipitation forecast were to verify this morning, the little drought that is left in Texas will probably disappear.

Mindblown

[TheProfessor]

I think someone got a hold of my coloring books from when I was five, I was never good at coloring within the lines.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Intense. Going to Leakey to float the frio in a few weeks, need this pattern to chill out by then!

[gboudx]

Update from jeff:

Air mass is recovering over the area this afternoon with surface temperatures rising into the mid 80’s. Large outflow boundary from central Louisiana thunderstorm complex is making its way across the Sabine River and moving WSW to W toward SE TX. Recently thunderstorms have developed along and ahead of this feature. Another outflow boundary is laying across the City of Houston SW along US 59 and yet another boundary can be seen shifting westward across central TX.

I am very leery of what has transpired over the last 7 days (5 separate rainfall events of 6 inches or greater) and the general lack of model guidance to forecast much of this. Current high resolution guidance is not handling the storms over E TX very well and this morning’s activity fired along an old outflow boundary from yesterday when the low level jet increased lift along the feature. Even though no model guidance suggest storm formation overnight…with so many boundaries moving about…I would not rule out another flare up of early morning storms. The air mass remains very moist and capable of some really big short term rainfall rates…case in point the almost 10 inches over southern Grimes County this morning.

Upper level ridge will attempt to gain some ground over the region…especially along the coast…toward the Tuesday and Wednesday time frame, but this does not take our inland locations out of the risk for more heavy rainfall and it is this area that has been hit so hard over the last 7 days. Additional disturbances moving across in the SW flow aloft will likely trigger late afternoon and evening storms along the dry line over SW TX and some of this activity could grow into a thunderstorm complex and move into the area during the morning hours. Thursday is potentially a day for this to happen.

Another large upper level storm system drops into the SW US Friday and then moves toward TX next weekend. Moisture levels look to surge to near summer levels ahead of this storm system and lift looks sustained so the attention will be on the Saturday-Sunday time period for widespread excessive rainfall yet again. With grounds already soggy and rivers high additional rainfall will almost certainly cause flooding.

[Texas Snowman]

@breakingweather: High water rescues are underway in San Angelo. NWS employee measured 4.64" of rain in 90 minutes http://t.co/T2o7juSCSr

[Texas Snowman]

Wow!!!!!!

@NWSSanAngelo: Concho River in San Angelo is on a rapid climb tonight. #sjtwx #txwx http://t.co/WujSAa1hN7

[TheProfessor]

Man this latest map is insane!

[/quote]

[Tireman4]

Man this latest map is insane!

[/quote]

A few more rain events like this and Travis is back to normal...

[weatherdude1108]

Today's WPC forecast seems to be in our area's favor for lake level boosts. Can we say, EL NINO?

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussion ... isc=qpfpfd

...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOCUSED ON A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
ACROSS CENTRAL TX COULD RESULT IN HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DURING DAY 2. A SHORT WAVE EJECTED FROM A CLOSED LOW SETTLING OVER
SOUTHERN CA ON DAY 3 WILL ATTEMPT TO FOCUS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR HEAVY TO POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM CENTRAL
TX THROUGH EASTERN NM NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THERE WAS A
DECENT SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL TX DURING DAY 2...AND
THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS/UKMET...EACH
OF WHICH SHOWED THE SIGNAL. THE THREAT FOR DAY 3 IS A BIT MORE
NEBULOUS...AS THERE IS MORE MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THE LOCATION
OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN. FOR DAY 3...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED PRIMARILY
ON THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF.

A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL TX ON DAY 2 BECOMES
THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES (WHICH IS
ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) ON THE NOSE OF A
SOUTHEAST 20 TO 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...MAINLY AFTER 21/00Z. THE
BEST INSTABILITY OCCURS BETWEEN 20/00Z AND 20/06Z...COINCIDENT
WITH THE BEST MOISTURE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED SOME DRY AIR IN THE
MID LEVEL INITIALLY...WHICH BECOMES INCREASINGLY MOIST WITH TIME.
THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF 1.00 TO 1.25
INCHES OF QPF ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TX...WHICH HAS SEEN HEAVY
RAIN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES
IN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIRMASS...PAST HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING 2+ INCH QPF AMOUNTS SUGGEST THAT A
SLIGHT RISK AREA IS NECESSARY.

FOR DAY 3...A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CROSSES SOUTHERN CA. AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW...SHORT WAVES ARE EJECTED...WHICH COULD AFFECT THE
REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVES...A SURFACE
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX THROUGH EASTERN NM IN
SOUTHERN CO BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW PUMPS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.50 INCHES
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS IN EASTERN NM. THE LOW
LEVEL INFLOW THEN BECOMES ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TX
LATE IN THE PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY INITIALLY...WHICH BACKS OFF TOWARD 22/12Z. THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD PRODUCE A BROAD
AREA OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS EASTERN NM...AS WELL AS
MUCH OF WEST AND CENTRAL TX.

THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD CONCERNING THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS...AS INDIVIDUAL MODELS LATCH ON TO DIFFERENT
FORCING TO PRODUCE THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS. THE WPC QPF IS BELOW
THE THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH 2+ INCHES OF QPF ACROSS WEST AND
CENTRAL TX. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE LOCATION OF THE
HEAVIEST RAIN...NO SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN ASSIGNED FOR NOW. IF
THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH RESPECT TO HEAVY
RAIN PLACEMENT...A SLIGHT RISK AREA COULD BE ISSUED IN THE FUTURE
FOR THIS AREA.


ORAVEC/HAYES

[SeGaBob]

It's good that y'all are finally getting some drought busting rain... but over here in this "El Nino" pattern it's been hot and dry the last 2 weeks with virtually no chance of rain for the next 7 days. Will we eventually get in on some too?

[Ntxw]

you guys along the Atlantic coast are feeling the effects of higher pressures via the Atlantic pattern. Maybe in the fall it will change, as a more canonical Nino favors the southwest US over the southeast with rain.

[SeGaBob]

Thanks for the info.

[Brent]

Man this latest map is insane!

Just to add to the insanity:

[weatherdude1108]

Did anyone notice the 12Z GFS showing a tropical system approaching the coast of Mexico around the June 2nd time frame?

It showed resultant moisture streaming into west/northwest Texas from that. It is a ways out, but probably worth watching given the water temperatures down there.

[Texas Snowman]

TORNADO WARNING
TXC139-192045-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0070.150519T2009Z-150519T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
309 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN ELLIS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 309 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PALMER...OR NEAR WAXAHACHIE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
PALMER AROUND 325 PM CDT.
FERRIS AROUND 340 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE PECAN
HILL AND GARRETT.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...
INTERSTATE 35E BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 397 AND 398.
INTERSTATE 45 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 251 AND 266.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3225 9671 3236 9688 3255 9675 3255 9653
3253 9652 3253 9651 3251 9650 3251 9651
3248 9651 3244 9648
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 217DEG 20KT 3237 9674

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

AJS

[Texas Snowman]

Tornadic storm south of OKC near Purcell, tornado watch in SW Oklahoma. Some storms firing to the SW of the City down along the Red River near Wichita Falls.

Could be an interesting afternoon/evening around OKC.

[TheProfessor]

Did anyone notice the 12Z GFS showing a tropical system approaching the coast of Mexico around the June 2nd time frame?

It showed resultant moisture streaming into west/northwest Texas from that. It is a ways out, but probably worth watching given the water temperatures down there.

Add that with an active pacific jet and we could see some crazy rain totals if that verified.