Texas Spring-2015

[Texas Snowman]

@WeatherNation: 10:58pm CDT: Emergency manager reports "very large tornado" on the ground on Wise-Denton County line along Highway 380. #txwx

[Texas Snowman]

Just as The Professor noted earlier!

@USTornadoes: Today's 29+ preliminary tornado reports is a reminder that Mother Nature doesn't care about what the forecast is. http://t.co/tyM6L7Nz0m

[Texas Snowman]

@CBS11Larry: #BREAKING: New TORNADO WARNING for western Denton County until 11:45pm. Possible tornado near Krum moving east http://t.co/hwzWEsub2R

[Texas Snowman]

@DFWscanner: Lowering from wall cloud with power flashes observed north of FM 156 & January Lane northwest of Ponder. Seek shelter! #txwx #dfwwx

[Texas Snowman]

@NWSFortWorth: 1158PM: Developing tornado north of Hwy 380, west of Krum by 5 mi. Storm moving East-northeast. Take cover if in path of this storm! #dfwwx

[Texas Snowman]

Ryan Maue is showing some HRRR runs with INSANE rain totals along the Red River.

Like 10-16 inches.

If that happens, Texoma might go over its spillway very soon. Less than five feet away right now.

[Texas Snowman]

KXII TV says already 2-6" of rain in Texoma's watershed tonight.

And then there's this: @NWSNorman: 2 inches of rain in 30 minutes in Wichita Falls at 1230 am. Life threatening flooding possible. Stay away from flood waters. #txwx #flood

Think it's a done deal that Texoma is going over the spillway for only the fourth time in it's history.

[Texas Snowman]

@spotternetwork: Spotr 4 miles N of SANGER, TX @ 06:05AM UTC Rotating Wall Cloud>-Bowl shaped lowering to my North. Power flashes. About 2 miles north.

[Ntxw]

KXII TV says already 2-6" of rain in Texoma's watershed tonight.

And then there's this: @NWSNorman: 2 inches of rain in 30 minutes in Wichita Falls at 1230 am. Life threatening flooding possible. Stay away from flood waters. #txwx #flood

Think it's a done deal that Texoma is going over the spillway for only the fourth time in it's history.

Its not just going over, its going to go over by feet like in 1957 and 1990. Unfortunately downstream of the dam the River is also experiencing flooding so its not as simple as opening the gates and releasing water at this lake.

[texas1836]

This morning in McKinney I had 1.14" of rain measured at the DWC. Just south, over night, nothing. Very defined storms.

I'll be driving up to Texoma on Saturday, I hope to see it for the 3rd time, 2007 or 2008 wasn't very impressive.

I'm hearing Lake Ray Roberts is about to flow over.

[gboudx]

What lake(s) does Texoma release into? Lavon has stopped releases. I'm guessing the Army Corp of Engineers wants Ray Hubbard to drop some before filling it with more water. A staggered, stair-step maneuver possibly.

Anyway, update from jeff:

Our break in excessive rainfall events appears to be ending with the threat returning Thursday and Friday and then potentially a much more serious threat over the weekend.

Weak frontal boundary over N TX this morning resulting in training convection along the Red River. The front itself and associated convective outflow boundaries should gradually push southward into SE TX late this afternoon and overnight. Weak upper level ridging has developed a weak cap over the region since late yesterday afternoon and expect this feature to hold much of today limiting rain chances. Cap erodes this evening with approach of the front and thunderstorm activity from the north.

Frontal boundary nears I-10 on Thursday and stalls with the air mass becoming increasingly unstable. Expect numerous slow moving thunderstorms with heavy rainfall along this boundary and the flash flood potential will be increasing on Thursday. Front remains stalled over the region into Friday with more thunderstorms expected…some containing heavy rainfall.

Weekend:
Main focus is shifting toward a potential excessive rainfall and flash flood event over the upcoming holiday weekend. A strong upper level storm system will move into the SW US while a surge of deep tropical moisture with PWS approaching 2.0 inches starting late Saturday. Numerous disturbances will begin to cross the area by early Sunday and expect rain chances to gradually increase. Upper level become increasingly vented with upper level divergence and this aspect has been strongly coupled with the recent flash flood events over the region. Potential is there for slow moving thunderstorm complexes with very heavy rainfall Sunday-early next week with both flash flooding and river flooding.

Hydro:

Area rivers still passing flood flows from the recent heavy rainfall.

Trinity River:
Overbanks flooding in progress above Lake Livingston and from above Liberty to below Moss Bluff. River will remain overbanks into the weekend.

Brazos River:
Flood wave from Monday’s heavy rainfall is progressing toward Richmond this morning. River is expected to crest below flood stage at Richmond, but may rise to near or above flood stage at Rosharon late this week.

Colorado River:
Upstream flood wave is cresting near Wharton this morning and will move downstream to Bay City later this week. River remains within banks with no significant impacts expected.

Guadalupe River:
River is overbanks from below Gonzales, TX to below Bloomington TX. Near moderate flood levels are forecasted near Victoria, TX through Saturday morning.

Additional rainfall Thursday and Friday and again this week on already swollen rivers will only worsen ongoing flooding. New rises can be expected pushing some rivers above flood stage.

Residents are urged to pay close attention to the weather forecast this weekend especially across central TX where flash flooding of normally dry creeks and rivers will be possible.

Giddings, TX Tornado:

A weak tornado rated EF-0 with 80mph winds impacted the town of Giddings, TX yesterday around midday (1225pm) injuring 1 person. The tornado developed from an ill define thunderstorm which would not be expected to produce a tornado. Visible satellite images early yesterday morning revealed a low level outflow boundary in place from Austin to Giddings from thunderstorm over N TX. As the thunderstorms developed south of this boundary during the late morning hours and then crossed the boundary while moving north it produced the tornado. This is a good example of backed low level winds from the ENE north of the boundary and southerly winds ahead of the boundary producing a gradient of low level shear and horizontal rotation in the atmosphere that was then stretched by the thunderstorm. Tornado production would not have been likely without this boundary in place. Such tornadoes tend to be very weak EF-0 or EF-1 and produce mainly vegetation damage or minor structural damage.

I'm really curious about the Sunday rain/storms here in the Metroplex. I'm participating in the Carry The Load relay walk on Sunday; walking 9 miles from Royse City to Rockwall. I'll have my rain gear, but don't want to deal with lightning and hail.

[Ntxw]

What lake(s) does Texoma release into? Lavon has stopped releases. I'm guessing the Army Corp of Engineers wants Ray Hubbard to drop some before filling it with more water. A staggered, stair-step maneuver possibly.

Texoma releases down to the Red River, there are no other flood control lakes (to my knowledge) down stream of Texoma. it is the only man made lake on the River itself. However there are numerous cities and towns that can get flooded if the river is already in flood stage on both the Texas and Oklahoma side. Thus releases from the lake is usually reserved for the hydro electric plant it produces. I guess that's why it needs such a vast spillway.

[wxman57]

Definitely time for some dry air across Texas. I'm not saying 2011 dry, just 3-4 days per week when we're not being flooded...

[Tireman4]

KXII TV says already 2-6" of rain in Texoma's watershed tonight.

And then there's this: @NWSNorman: 2 inches of rain in 30 minutes in Wichita Falls at 1230 am. Life threatening flooding possible. Stay away from flood waters. #txwx #flood

Think it's a done deal that Texoma is going over the spillway for only the fourth time in it's history.

Its not just going over, its going to go over by feet like in 1957 and 1990. Unfortunately downstream of the dam the River is also experiencing flooding so its not as simple as opening the gates and releasing water at this lake.

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrogra ... gage=dsnt2

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Definitely time for some dry air across Texas. I'm not saying 2011 dry, just 3-4 days per week when we're not being flooded...

Extended range is looking better. After this weekends deluge. I see big flooding coming again this weekend. Going to Austin this wekeend and they are looking very wet at the moment. To be honest, they need it. Hopefully travis gets lots of it

[texas1836]

How long can this El Nino last? I thought it was supposed to be a minor one, but seems it's blown out of control. In the past, El Nino's tended to last a much shorter time and droughts lasting much longer.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Currently this one is trending on the strong side, but how long it last etc is up in the air.


This brings up a question from me though, was there ever a time at this time of year where the pacific was so warm? Leading to such a crazy amount of rain.

[gboudx]

How long can this El Nino last? I thought it was supposed to be a minor one, but seems it's blown out of control. In the past, El Nino's tended to last a much shorter time and droughts lasting much longer.

Here's jeff's update on the El Nino:

While much focus has been on the recent flooding rainfall and related hydrology issues across the region a pretty impressive El Nino event is unfolding and forecasted to unfold in the Pacific Ocean.

Current ENSO forecast from the ECMWF model suggest a strong El Nino event will be developing this summer into next fall and winter. While global El Nino forecast have been poor in the past, there is decent evidence to support the current strong El Nino trends including warning sea surfaces in the Nino regions of the Pacific and better coupling of the atmosphere and sea surface.

It is interesting how wet Texas has turned in the last 8 weeks once sea surfaces in the Pacific crossed over the El Nino threshold. While individual rainfall events would be hard to track to El Nino…the constant repeat pattern of a SW US trough reloading with storm systems again and again is what one would expect in an El Nino event.

The overall effects of El Nino should gradually subside during the northern hemisphere summer, but should the below models verify the potential for well above normal rainfall would return to TX by fall 2015 and likely continue into early 2016. This may also offer some hope after the summer to a devastated California from years of long term drought.

If one wants to break/end the long term drought across Texas ongoing since the mid 2000’s this is certainly one option do accomplish that.

[WeatherNewbie]

Sky looks like it is ready to bust open in Plano. Dark dark clouds.

[Texas Snowman]

What lake(s) does Texoma release into? Lavon has stopped releases. I'm guessing the Army Corp of Engineers wants Ray Hubbard to drop some before filling it with more water. A staggered, stair-step maneuver possibly.

Texoma releases down to the Red River, there are no other flood control lakes (to my knowledge) down stream of Texoma. it is the only man made lake on the River itself. However there are numerous cities and towns that can get flooded if the river is already in flood stage on both the Texas and Oklahoma side. Thus releases from the lake is usually reserved for the hydro electric plant it produces. I guess that's why it needs such a vast spillway.

DeKalb, Texas in northeast Texas is one city that is always in question with downstream flooding.

Also, the Shreveport/Bossier City area in Louisiana is also subject to flooding from the Red River. While not a series of actual reservoirs behind a dam (like at Texoma), the Red River in Louisiana has several locks in place that boats have to go through.