"Simulated" Storm Satellite Images

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Super Typhoon Choi-wan (Ramon) of November 2015 striking Central Visayas. Inspired by Gilbert, Wilma, Hagupit and Haiyan. Deadliest Philippine storm on record (>22,000 deaths), and costliest worldwide in terms of damages ($166.2 billion)

Strongest storm in recorded history, lowest recorded land SLP and strongest wind gust.

http://hypotheticalhurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Typhoon_Choi-wan_(2015,_Xtyphooncyclonex)

[tatertawt24]

1938 would be an interesting one to photoshop. Not sure how it would look, since the strength would suggest a well-organized storm, but the winds were likely so strong because of the forward speed. And I've honestly never seen a New England hurricane even look halfway decent lol, so there's really no good example to go off of.

[HurricaneEdouard]

Super Typhoon Choi-wan (Ramon) of November 2015 striking Central Visayas. Inspired by Gilbert, Wilma, Hagupit and Haiyan. Deadliest Philippine storm on record (>22,000 deaths), and costliest worldwide in terms of damages ($166.2 billion)

Strongest storm in recorded history, lowest recorded land SLP and strongest wind gust.

http://hypotheticalhurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Typhoon_Choi-wan_(2015,_Xtyphooncyclonex)

796 mb... Don't you think that's a little excessive

1938 would be an interesting one to photoshop. Not sure how it would look, since the strength would suggest a well-organized storm, but the winds were likely so strong because of the forward speed. And I've honestly never seen a New England hurricane even look halfway decent lol, so there's really no good example to go off of.

Okay, definitely needs work, since the size of the system and the eye in particular don't quite match wind radii data. But, combining Hurricane Bob at Category 2 intensity, Hurricane Floyd at Category 4 strength and Hurricane Wilma racing north of the Bahamas as a Category 3, here's my first attempt at the Long Island Express:



What do you think?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

At landfall (in the image I posted) Choi-wan weakened to 155 kts (1-min) and a pressure of 879 mb But would still be exceptionally dangerous and devastating. It was given 155 kts in the image since it still had a warm pinhole eye temp of 21.1C and cloud tops of -90C and less. However at peak, the eye temperature exceeded that of STY Nora (+32C, Nora was +30C) with eyewall cloud tops of -120C! SSTs at the time were at 31°C. I fixed the peak to 865 mb for JMA's estimate, winds are also 145 kts for them, 1-min means 175 kts for JTWC. Still insanely powerful.

[CrazyC83]

I doubt 1938 looked that great on satellite (if it existed) - probably looked a lot larger and more lopsided for its intensity. It became extratropical less than 4 hours after landfall, so it probably didn't have a very well-defined eye and was already asymmetrical.

[Hurricaneman]

I doubt 1938 looked that great on satellite (if it existed) - probably looked a lot larger and more lopsided for its intensity. It became extratropical less than 4 hours after landfall, so it probably didn't have a very well-defined eye and was already asymmetrical.

I would thin some of the clouds south of the eye and make the eye less defined and that is probably closer to reality

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

@ HurricaneEdouard good try for the Great New England Hurricane of 1938. I think you are pretty close actually; although it should be bigger and have a tad less convective clouds on the south side of the circulation.

[HurricaneEdouard]

Thank you for the feedback, CrazyC83, Hurricaneman and Hybridstorm! Always appreciated.

:uarrow: At landfall (in the image I posted) Choi-wan weakened to 155 kts (1-min) and a pressure of 879 mb But would still be exceptionally dangerous and devastating. It was given 155 kts in the image since it still had a warm pinhole eye temp of 21.1C and cloud tops of -90C and less. However at peak, the eye temperature exceeded that of STY Nora (+32C, Nora was +30C) with eyewall cloud tops of -120C! SSTs at the time were at 31°C. I fixed the peak to 865 mb for JMA's estimate, winds are also 145 kts for them, 1-min means 175 kts for JTWC. Still insanely powerful.

It'd be both incredible and horrific to track such a storm if it happened IRL. Thanks for linking me to the Wiki though; definitely will add my doomsday storms. I think, based on in situ tornado measurements, the lowest surface pressures plausible in our current Earth would be around 860 mb, so 865 mb would conceivably be the lowest a tropical cyclone could go. If it was a Tracy-sized micromonster, I shudder to think of how insane the winds would be, or how high the surge would be if it was a Tip-sized storm!

I doubt 1938 looked that great on satellite (if it existed) - probably looked a lot larger and more lopsided for its intensity. It became extratropical less than 4 hours after landfall, so it probably didn't have a very well-defined eye and was already asymmetrical.

Wilma's satellite presentation was impressive (and characteristic of a major hurricane with significant baroclinic interaction I'd say) only eight hours before extratropical transition, and I recall Noel in '07 undergoing a very rapid transition as well. The 105 kt wind speed, even if partially imparted by high forward velocity, make me think the Long Island Express's pressure gradient wasn't too spread out, and was thus fairly tropical in nature, shortly before landfall, then undergoing a very rapid extratropical transition that would have dramatically altered the structure and satellite presentation (if there were satellites). That would account for the rapid weakening to sub-65kt winds four hours after landfall, as the pressure gradient weakened.

Alright, here's two alternative improved interpretations of the 1938 hurricane, taking into account all the feedback. I actually think it now looks much more terrifying, even if less organised or conventionally impressive. However, I also think I might have overdone it a little.



I'm tempted to do the 1780 Great Hurricane next. From reports of extensive tree debarking and the storm surge (particularly considering the topography), it seems to me this storm may have been comparable to Typhoon Haiyan or the Labor Day Hurricane in strength, which is incredibly fascinating to me, given the fact it achieved such intensity over the Atlantic rather than the West Caribbean or GoM - and as a Cape Verde hurricane in mid-October to boot!

[tatertawt24]

Really awesome work. While I like the first better, the second one is probably much more realistic. Bob was pretty impressive wind-wise, and look how ugly he was at landfall:



Yuck. ;-; I get the feeling that the only hurricane that looked decent at landfall in New England was Carol.

Anyway, are there any sources for the tree debarking in the 1780 storm? Not that it's dubious, but I'd be interested in reading about it. I've read three mentions of tree debarking in a hurricane: 1780, 1935, and Typhoon Karen in 1962. I wonder if there are any reports of this in Hurricane Andrew or Hurricane Janet. Might be a good indicator of cat 5 intensity.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It would be most devastating for Cebu province since it's the most populated in the Philippines (since Manila is not part of any) and that Cebu is sooooo densely populated and the coastal areas are packed with people. I'd list myself as injured, then. Anyway HurricaneEdouard I love your work!

[Hurricaneman]

Actually the new simulated 1938 hurricane photos from 3 post prior to mine are how I would think it would have looked as opposed to the first set

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[tatertawt24]

Ooh, I've got a good one! King (1950). Made landfall in Miami, where the eye had contracted to five miles in diameter, and there was heavy lightning in the eyewall. One of the best examples of a storm to make landfall while rapidly intensifying.

1926 would be interesting too.

[Bocadude85]

1947 Ft.Lauderdale/Boca Raton hurricane would be interesting also

[MiamiensisWx]

Ooh, I've got a good one! King (1950). Made landfall in Miami, where the eye had contracted to five miles in diameter, and there was heavy lightning in the eyewall. One of the best examples of a storm to make landfall while rapidly intensifying.

1926 would be interesting too.

Speaking of the 1926 "Great Miami" hurricane, I recently had a conversation with someone on Wikipedia in which I shared my knowledge/research about that storm. Here are the relevant excerpts, and they are indeed quite interesting--and sobering:

Few people realize just how large and intense the 1926 hurricane was. According to historical sources I've read, hurricane-force winds occurred from Key Largo to Stuart, a distance of more than 100 miles. An anemometer, probably elevated, recorded sustained winds of 132 mph at Hillsboro Lighthouse (in northern Broward County), which, accounting for elevation, probably converts to about 90 mph at 10 meters, the standard elevation of observation. That means near-Category 2 winds occurred well to the north of the eye wall. (The actual eye of the hurricane made landfall near Perrine, about 10–15 miles south of Miami.) Accounts tell of people shoveling a foot of sand from the second and third stories of buildings on Hollywood beach. The storm tide in Bahia Mar, on the coast near Fort Lauderdale, approached 13 feet. Numerous gauges on the New River reported a storm tide of about 7 feet. The tide carried boats into downtown Fort Lauderdale. Newspapers reported hundreds of buildings destroyed in Hollywood and Fort Lauderdale alone—two cities that were ''outside'' the eye wall. More than 50 people probably died in Broward County. The entire beach between Miami Beach and Delray Beach was washed out to sea; waves rose more than 30 feet to the top of the barrier island in Boca Raton; 25 feet of sand vanished from the foundation of the Hillsboro Lighthouse. Only a steep cliff remained where Florida State Road A1A once stood. Cities as far north as West Palm Beach reported roofs torn from buildings, warehouses destroyed, and trees snapped.
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Now, bear in mind that the 1926 storm made landfall with winds of 145 mph—a very strong Category 4 hurricane, almost as strong as Andrew in 1992. Yet it was two to three times the size of Andrew. It also spent several days as a strong Category 4 hurricane over the Bahamas. Based on everything that I have read, the storm was likely undergoing the initial stages of an eyewall replacement cycle as it made landfall in South Florida. The angle of approach, the intensity over a long period of time, the radius of gale-force winds, and the landfall point also worked to enhance not only the wave heights, but also the storm tide—that is, the storm tide away from Biscayne Bay. All these factors explain the large storm tide in an area (Fort Lauderdale) normally protected from such an event. They also explain survivors' accounts that the wind in Fort Lauderdale briefly lulled a bit, but did not calm, as the hurricane made landfall near Miami. Such an occurrence would hint at an outer eyewall structure. In short, the 1926 hurricane was close to a worst-case scenario for South Florida. Rarely does a hurricane of such large size ''and'' extreme strength hit the United States. Most of the strongest impacts—1935, Andrew, Charley—have been small, rapidly intensifying cyclones, not large, steady-state ones. Most of the large cyclones to hit the United States in recent decades were much weaker than the 1926 storm and were often weakening before landfall. The 1926 hurricane was more like Carla in 1961 than other large cyclones, like Katrina in 2005, that weakened before landfall at the same time they expanded. Carla was a very large storm, yet it made landfall as a high-end Category 4 hurricane.
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In addition to the rarity of the 1926 event, there are quite a few questions about its impact. In particular, there are some glaring gaps in the official records: the official death toll of 372, based on Red Cross records, is commonly accepted for the entirety of the storm, when in fact, based on my research, it ''only'' includes deaths on land in the United States; many deaths in the Bahamas and at sea apparently went unrecorded. Besides the official deaths, hundreds of missing transients, especially migrant workers, in South Florida may have died, though several of these probably survived and went elsewhere. Many workers lived in frail tenements during the land boom; when the storm destroyed these structures, many may have died due to injuries from flying debris. They lacked close relatives to look after them, and so their identities and whereabouts went unknown. Finally, while black migrant deaths comprised most of the casualties in 1928 (and were tragically ignored, then and now, in large part due to racial attitudes), probably few other disasters killed as many white, well-off farmers—making historical ignorance of the storm all more glaring. Most intriguingly, the 1926 storm devastated the Seminole and Miccosukee tribes in the Everglades; I have managed to uncover an account or two from a Miccosukee in the Everglades, but it is too brief for my taste, so I am looking for more information.

Now imagine something like this hitting South Florida again. While the area is much better prepared these days, there are some glaring caveats--notably the ill-repaired Lake Okeechobee dike and the proliferation of beachfront development that is vulnerable to erosion and sea-level rise. Needless to say, I still wouldn't like to see the consequences should another 1926 (or 1928) hurricane strike.

[tatertawt24]

Is there any information available on the eye diameter? I've always wondered if, due to the large size, and what seems like resistance to dry air from the coast (especially if it was a slow mover), and what apparently was a steady category 4 state around the Bahamas, if it had annular characteristics. I know that's an annoying buzzword, and I doubt it was really a full-fledged Isabel-like storm, but if maybe the ERC was a sign that it was entering or exiting annular.... mode? idk what to call it. I forget what conditions are needed for that, so I'm most likely wrong -- and it's not like a hurricane can't be a large, major hurricane without the magic 'Annular' category.

I'd imagine that, maybe, there were mesovortices in the eye which added on to the not completely calm conditions. Ivan had these too, though, (in the GOM at least -- I have no idea about landfall) and Ivan definitely wasn't annular. I wish there were better satellite photos of Carla's structure in the gulf, because that could be a big clue as to how 1926 would have looked.

[Bocadude85]

Is there any information available on the eye diameter? I've always wondered if, due to the large size, and what seems like resistance to dry air from the coast (especially if it was a slow mover), and what apparently was a steady category 4 state around the Bahamas, if it had annular characteristics. I know that's an annoying buzzword, and I doubt it was really a full-fledged Isabel-like storm, but if maybe the ERC was a sign that it was entering or exiting annular.... mode? idk what to call it. I forget what conditions are needed for that, so I'm most likely wrong -- and it's not like a hurricane can't be a large, major hurricane without the magic 'Annular' category.

I'd imagine that, maybe, there were mesovortices in the eye which added on to the not completely calm conditions. Ivan had these too, though, (in the GOM at least -- I have no idea about landfall) and Ivan definitely wasn't annular. I wish there were better satellite photos of Carla's structure in the gulf, because that could be a big clue as to how 1926 would have looked.

Generally landfalling hurricanes in the southern part of Florida do not have issues with dry air. There is plenty of moisture from the everglades and gulf that they can tap into as they make landfall.

[HurricaneEdouard]

So I got to thinking... What would a 50/50 blend of Hurricane Wilma and Hurricane Patrica look like? Aside from being the most intense Atlantic and Pacific hurricanes, respectively, both had tiny radii of maximum winds, pinhole eyes, and explosively deepened at unprecedented rates (in pressure and windspeed, respectively). So, here it is (positioned, to-scale, next to Florida so you can get a sense of Wilma and Patricia's sizes at peak intensity, although this is a plausible position in light of the 1935 Florida Keys Hurricane, another explosively deepening hurricane with potentially 200mph+ winds and a tiny RMW).

[Category5Kaiju]

So I got to thinking... What would a 50/50 blend of Hurricane Wilma and Hurricane Patrica look like? Aside from being the most intense Atlantic and Pacific hurricanes, respectively, both had tiny radii of maximum winds, pinhole eyes, and explosively deepened at unprecedented rates (in pressure and windspeed, respectively). So, here it is (positioned, to-scale, next to Florida so you can get a sense of Wilma and Patricia's sizes at peak intensity, although this is a plausible position in light of the 1935 Florida Keys Hurricane, another explosively deepening hurricane with potentially 200mph+ winds and a tiny RMW).

https://i.imgur.com/9x578Nz.jpg

Hurricane Patrilma about to make the West Coast of Florida say bye bye to existing on this planet....but wow, that does look like one killer storm! Nice edit!

[InfernoFlameCat]

So I got to thinking... What would a 50/50 blend of Hurricane Wilma and Hurricane Patrica look like? Aside from being the most intense Atlantic and Pacific hurricanes, respectively, both had tiny radii of maximum winds, pinhole eyes, and explosively deepened at unprecedented rates (in pressure and windspeed, respectively). So, here it is (positioned, to-scale, next to Florida so you can get a sense of Wilma and Patricia's sizes at peak intensity, although this is a plausible position in light of the 1935 Florida Keys Hurricane, another explosively deepening hurricane with potentially 200mph+ winds and a tiny RMW).

https://i.imgur.com/9x578Nz.jpg

If I saw a storm IRL that intense next to Florida, I would think it looked too intense to be that far north.

[aspen]

So I got to thinking... What would a 50/50 blend of Hurricane Wilma and Hurricane Patrica look like? Aside from being the most intense Atlantic and Pacific hurricanes, respectively, both had tiny radii of maximum winds, pinhole eyes, and explosively deepened at unprecedented rates (in pressure and windspeed, respectively). So, here it is (positioned, to-scale, next to Florida so you can get a sense of Wilma and Patricia's sizes at peak intensity, although this is a plausible position in light of the 1935 Florida Keys Hurricane, another explosively deepening hurricane with potentially 200mph+ winds and a tiny RMW).

https://i.imgur.com/9x578Nz.jpg

If I saw a storm IRL that intense next to Florida, I would think it looked too intense to be that far north.

Seeing how SSTs skyrocketed to 31-32C on the Gulf coast of Florida and the Bahamas early last August, it’s not impossible for such an intensity. However, it would be unbelievably rare — there would need to be a perfect combination of peak SSTs, a storm actually being in that area, and a favorable shear pattern and UL environment. Those crazy high SSTs went back to normal by the time Laura and Marco were named.