ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

you're right holds steady at 1C. Show's not to trust the daily's, only as a guide

[cycloneye]

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach · 12m12 minutes ago
Oct Nino 3.4 fcst from 8 models. Fcst. avg for Nino 3.4 is 2.4C. Record Oct Nino 3.4 since 1950 is 2.35 set in 1997

[cycloneye]

Text of CPC weekly update that has Nino 3.4 at +1.0C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[NDG]

What if they take out the usual warm biased models during this time of the year out of the equation, it would probable be around 2.0C

[cycloneye]

Eric Blake @EricBlake12 · 1h 1 hour ago
A 4 standard-deviation-strength low-level westerly wind anomaly in C/Epac late week-- wow. #ElNino

[Dean_175]

Ntxw- with very warm subsurface temperatures and favorable winds, why has nino3.4 not warmed at all in a month?

[Kingarabian]

Ntxw- with very warm subsurface temperatures and favorable winds, why has nino3.4 not warmed at all in a month?

I don't think the winds were very favorable for warming, they just seemed to be neutral to not allow any decent cooling like last year and to maintain temperatures. (least how it looked like in those wind anomalies graphic)

Not sure where that May WWB is currently, but once it gets to the Nino regions I think warming will continue.

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[Hurricaneman]

The subsurface in the ENSO seems to be losing some of those +6 anomalies and the +5s seem to be shrinking also so who knows will the +anomalies stop shrinking or at least reform farther west or are we near the peak of this El Nino

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Yellow Evan]

The subsurface in the ENSO seems to be losing some of those +6 anomalies and the +5s seem to be shrinking also so who knows will the +anomalies stop shrinking or at least reform farther east or are we near the peak of this El Nino

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

The sub-surface starts to shrink at this time of year. That's normal.

And we are IMO far from the peak of this El Nino.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

There's a new warm pool emerging from the west of the dateline, you probably didn't notice that. You also should pay attention to the CFSv2 forecasts too. They indeed are shrinking. On the other hand, Yellow Evan sounds so defensive in favor of El Niño, yet it is true that this Niño had not yet peaked.

[Hurricaneman]

I could see something like the ENSO 3-4 goes down to like a +.8 in the next month or 2 then as we head into the fall and early winter an increase to strong El Nino as that is when these tend to peak usually around the December time frame and there does indeed seem to be a start of a possible warm pool around the dateline but thats what makes weather fun

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Yellow Evan]

I could see something like the ENSO 3-4 goes down to like a +.8 in the next month or 2 then as we head into the fall and early winter an increase to strong El Nino as that is when these tend to peak usually around the December time frame and there does indeed seem to be a start of a possible warm pool around the dateline but thats what makes weather fun

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

This sounds right on the money. Sometimes you get this in El Ninos. But I'd still expect some short-term warming, with all the WWB's coming and MJO about to come around.

[Hammy]

Local climate question, with a strengthening Nino during summer, what sort of weather can be expected for summer/fall in northern Georgia?

[cycloneye]

It has been a while that the 30 day SOI hasn't been this low at El Nino threshold.The line of that is -8.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Do multiple CAT 5's in the Pacific effect the SST much? There should be plenty of big typhoons this year. I think this season will peak early and around Dec, Nino 1+2 will be only slightly warm while the 3.4 section sees most of the heat. Just my thoughts. Nino is off to such a strong start.

[Yellow Evan]

Do multiple CAT 5's in the Pacific effect the SST much? There should be plenty of big typhoons this year. I think this season will peak early and around Dec, Nino 1+2 will be only slightly warm while the 3.4 section sees most of the heat. Just my thoughts. Nino is off to such a strong start.

WPAC Cat 5's generate WWB's which strengthen the El Niño.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12
2nd downwelling KW shows up in TAO array at depth bw 180-170w, prob helped by western Pacific typhoon parade. #ElNino

[Dean_175]

How accurate are the nino 3.4 dailies? Daily values went from over 1.2C to below 0.9C in two days.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Maybe a brief round of slight cooling or changes then we'd get substantial warming by June, thanks to the new downwelling Kelvin Wave assisted by the explosion of super typhoons over the West Pacific. New warm pool growing very close to the dateline which will later grow and fuel the warming of the subsurface and surface waters.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

You think its possible that the Nino peaks early? Say Oct? The mean of those models runs is very very impressive.

No, provided a new sub-surface pool emerges this fall.

But a new sub-surface pool has to form. Do they form every year?