2015 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS develops the left 0/30 on day 4, and brings it to 999 mbar on day 5, while the above system starts forming off of MX.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS shows the 0/30 system forming in a few days and still has a hurricane hitting Colima by day 9.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A tropical wave located about 1200 miles south-southwest of
the southern tip of Baja California is producing a large area of
disorganized cloudiness and showers. This system has changed little
in organization since yesterday, and environmental conditions are
currently not conducive for development. However, they are expected
to become conducive for some slow development over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

An area of low pressure has developed about 2000 miles southwest of
the southern tip of Baja California. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development of the system
during the next several days while the low moves slowly
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Yellow Evan]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A tropical wave located about 1250 miles southwest of the southern
tip of Baja California continues to produce a large area of
disorganized cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions
are expected to become conducive for slow development of this
system during the next several days while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

A broad area of low pressure is located about 2000 miles southwest
of the southern tip of Baja California. Some development of this
system is possible during the next several days while the low moves
slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[HurricaneTracker2031]

The two systems are trying to get better organized but wind shear is keeping it in check for now.



Synopsis on EPAC: http://goo.gl/mNHAKL

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS continues to show a strong hurricane hitting MX next weekend.

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF has it down to 971MB by day 10 but looks to keep it offshore:

[Yellow Evan]

Insane for the Euro.

Just 3 hours we were talking about a slow start. Now we're talking about a record May.

[Yellow Evan]

UKMET develops both within 48 hours.

[Yellow Evan]

FIM also has a strong hurricane near MX by day 10.



And then another system at the end of the period.

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms
associated with a tropical wave is located about 1250 miles
southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Environmental
conditions are expected to become conducive for slow development of
this system during the next several days while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

A broad area of low pressure is located about 2000 miles southwest
of the southern tip of Baja California. Some development of this
system is possible during the next several days while the low
moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms
associated with a tropical wave is located about 1350 miles
southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Environmental
conditions are becoming more conducive for development of
this system during the next several days while it moves west-
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure
located about 2000 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja
California has become more concentrated this morning. Some
development of this system is possible during the next couple of
days while the low moves slowly northwestward. After that time,
development is less likely due to the proximity of the disturbance
to its northeast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

Invest 90E is up

[Yellow Evan]

GFS still showing a landfalling Mexico TS/Hurricane, but the 6z run has another system behind it.



Euro weaker and more west.

[cycloneye]

A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a
tropical wave located about 1300 miles southwest of the southern
tip of Baja California has become a little better organized this
morning. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development of this system during the next three to four days while
it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS and ECMWF have been dead set on the same situation for a few days, though both models are gradually trending east.

[cycloneye]

Invest 91E is up

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS most bullish run on possible Andres/Blanca/Carlos yet.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS shows two systems after 90E and 91E now.

[talkon]

GEM shows two hurricanes landfalling on Mexico.