Global model runs discussion

[northjaxpro]

As I mentioned yesterday, hopefully this potential system stays far enough off shore to not have any direct impacts here in Jax and along the SE US coastline, aside from rip currents and increased surf along the coast. Should that happen, we will get hot, dry air on the subsident side of the system.

[Ivanhater]

Interesting Gator with both the GFS and Euro very similar. Very well could be Ana in a few days and an early start to the season.

[emeraldislenc]

very interesting to see how this plays out!!

[Alyono]

and the 12Z MU drops the system

[Ivanhater]

and the 12Z MU drops the system

System is still present but sheared out and OTS. With high model support, will be interesting to see the evolution of this system.

[chaser1]

very interesting to see how this plays out!!

I dont think its going to play out. This due to all the angry fans spewing "hot air" in "the upper deck" (200mb wind shear, LOL).

I just noticed that the 12Z GFS significantly backed off on development, and the beginning of that trend seemed to appear around 130 hours where precip. suddenly seemed to be pulling off to the Northeast (evident of wind shear). So, considering that there has been good support from the Euro.... I decided to check out the prior 2 GFS runs' 200mb flow, just to see how the model was now differently forecasting upper air conditions. Rather than my being surprised at how much more volatile upper air conditions were now being forecast, (verses the prior 6hr. and 12hr. forecasts) I really did NOT see any increased upper air shear conditions. What did surprise me, was "how" or why all the global models were ever trying to spin up a tropical system in the first place?! Being "pre-season" I don't typically over analyze all upper and mid levels of the tropics in anticipation of development. Seeing a potential Tropical Depression being forecast by the Global's didn't altogether surprise me either given the El Nino pattern and sense that there may well be early season development anyway. But then seeing how the GFS this morning really backed off on development, I figured "lets just see how much worse upper conditions were now suddently being forecasted". The point is, it simply seems that upper conditions suck.... currently - LOL, and I"m just not even sure how the models (especially the Euro) were ever particularly bullish on development East of Florida. I have to assume the Euro will practically drop this developing low at its 12Z run today as well.

[Ivanhater]

12Z Canadian still on board

[SFLcane]

and the 12Z MU drops the system

Lol... Frankly with the GFS i don't buy into anything it shows past 80-120hrs.

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro still has it

[chaser1]

12z Euro still has it

Yes it does, and I just don't buy it. At least not without seeing a 200mb upper air forecast (or current) map to possibly support an anticyclone or overall difluent upper conditions. I just don't see upper winds being anything but essentially shearing and not conducive to tropical development.

We've all seen "marginal" upper conditions in the BOC or S. Caribbean where westerly shear is prevalent, but forecast maps indicate a hint of ridging beginning to build from the south over a supposed area of generated convection (thus aiding in the building of a possible transitional upper high). Even still, if significant bursting cannot temporarily offset any strong wind shear, than cyclongenesis would be a uphill battle. Present conditions over and to the east of Florida just do not appear (to me) to be conducive for tropical development, and as far as I can tell the GFS forecast maps (which are in question as it is) don't do anything to suggest near to mid term upper level conditions should be expected to change.

One other note, the EURO run from last night (0Z) began advertising a 1013 low just east of Stuart, Fl. at 168 hr., while todays 12Z run first establishes a 1012 low at the same 168 hr point, and now well East of Jacksonville.

[chaser1]

Hey.... then again, thats what makes trying to figure out the "how's" and "why's" fun, and why so many aspects of the science remain somewhat of a mystery.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z GFS is back on with development. 12z ECMWF and 12z CMC continue to support this scenario.

[gatorcane]

The UKMET on the 12Z run is showing a weak low now at 144 hours, near the Bahamas:

[floridasun78]

let what happen we expect rain here miami monday from area

[TheStormExpert]

From The Weather Channel on Twitter.

The Weather Channel
‏@weatherchannel 4:30 PM - 30 Apr 2015

Could the Atlantic #Hurricane Season Start Early? Models Hinting at Weak Low off SE Coast: http://wxch.nl/1dy3ftG

It is very possible that we could get something next week IMO since on average every 3 years we get a early season named storm in the Atlantic in the month of May. Last time was three years ago (2012), where we had two (both Alberto, and Beryl).

A perfect analog storm if this forecast setup materializes may be Subtropical Storm Andrea from 2007. Which caused MAJOR Beach Erosion all along East Coast beaches of Florida. The Jupiter Inlet was the hardest hit in Palm Beach County where I remember seeing on the Jupiter Webcam where they had lost a recreational building at the Jupiter Beach Park due to the surge produced by the rough surf and swells.

Subtropical Storm Andrea (2007)

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS keeps development from the Caribbean at 252hrs and ejects it through Cuba and out to sea from there but it hasn't moved up in timetable from the previous run so it may be phantom based on that

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[OuterBanker]

Latest kicks and giggles from GFS 384 is through Fl panhandle and then a Ga to NC coast hugger.

Wait long enough and there will be something for everyone.

[OuterBanker]

My bad, looks like Tampa to Ga and Carolina coasts. Anyway, too early in the season to amount to anything. Same scenario from mid July on would be a different story.

[gatorcane]

The GFS has been trying to close off some kind of low from an area which looks to originate from the Eastern Caribbean. The low forms around 186 hours just north of the Caribbean and moves NW into the Bahamas. GEM showing it now too but further east and slower. Graphics below.

[Rgv20]

Several 12zECMWF Ensembles trying to develop something in the Gulf by Day 12 June 6th..

Ensemble 9--998mb Low to Houston
Ensemble 12--1006mb Low to Florida Panhandle
Ensemble 37--1004mb Low to Corpus Christi