2015 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

The 00z ECMWF.

[cycloneye]

Here we go.

An area of low pressure may form early next week several hundred
miles south of the coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for subsequent slow development of the
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Yellow Evan]

The 00z ECMWF.

http://i.imgur.com/HM04uwk.png

Also later brings it into Baja.

[cycloneye]

This future area has the potential to be the first hurricane of the season. (Maybe first major?)

[Yellow Evan]

This future area has the potential to be the first hurricane of the season. (Maybe first major?)

Possibly, but the 0z GFS has backed off on this slightly, but also shows another system interacting with it.

[cycloneye]

Bathtube sst's that will help greatly.

[Ntxw]

Strong CCKW in the area, it will move a little further east next week. It will take some time but eventually something will take advantage, which will it be? Maybe the cluster of thunderstorms over Central America?

[Yellow Evan]

Strong CCKW in the area, it will move a little further east next week. It will take some time but eventually something will take advantage, which will it be? Maybe the cluster of thunderstorms over Central America?

If 90E can get its act together which it appears to be doing, we could see 2-3 systems this month.

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS showing either Andres or Blanca, Blanca or Carlos, Carlos or Delores.

[Ntxw]

If 90E can get its act together which it appears to be doing, we could see 2-3 systems this month.

Definitely. I'm trying to see which area the ECMWF is trying to develop into a big hurricane. CCKW will be closer to the Mexican coast by midweek so the invests now may get named but not fully take advantage yet. Whatever cluster is off the Mexican coast/gulf of tehuantepec by mid week needs to be monitored closely as the atmosphere is very favorable for that potential system. Kind of like what Marie did last year, but not that extreme due to time of year.

[Yellow Evan]

If 90E can get its act together which it appears to be doing, we could see 2-3 systems this month.

Definitely. I'm trying to see which area the ECMWF is trying to develop into a big hurricane. CCKW will be closer to the Mexican coast by midweek so the invests now may get named but not fully take advantage yet. Whatever cluster is off the Mexican coast/gulf of tehuantepec by mid week needs to be monitored closely as the atmosphere is very favorable for that potential system. Kind of like what Marie did last year, but not that extreme due to time of year.

GFS seems to show 2 system interacting with each other. I believe the 0/20 is what the GFS/ECMWF/CMC/NOGAPS all blow up and take close to the MX coast, and I don't think the other GFS system is on the TWO yet.

[cycloneye]

Yes,0/20 is the model consensus.

[cycloneye]

Maybe it begins from this?

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 90W FROM THE EL SALVADOR S TO
NEAR 03N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NEAR THE AXIS IN THE
AREA S OF 06N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALSO TRAILS THE WAVE FROM 05N TO 08N
BETWEEN 81W AND 87W NEAR THE COAST OF WESTERN PANAMA. THIS WAVE
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W AROUND 10-15 KT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[Yellow Evan]

Appears that even after the 0/20, the GFS has the interacting storm surviving and becoming a solid system.



ECMWF shows it too



GFS then shows a system near Central America that it also been shown in the Caribbean at the end of the period.

[Yellow Evan]

Maybe it begins from this?

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 90W FROM THE EL SALVADOR S TO
NEAR 03N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NEAR THE AXIS IN THE
AREA S OF 06N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALSO TRAILS THE WAVE FROM 05N TO 08N
BETWEEN 81W AND 87W NEAR THE COAST OF WESTERN PANAMA. THIS WAVE
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W AROUND 10-15 KT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

I think so. It looks decent already.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS appears more strong than 06z and there is another one to the southeast.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS appears more strong than 06z and there is another one to the southeast.

Yea, I posted that on the first post of the page.

Last 2 GFS runs bring it onshore as a hurricane. Something like what we saw from Alma/Boris/Cristina 96 from tail end of the last active era may be on board after 90/1E get out of the way.

[Yellow Evan]

Up to 192 hours, 973 mbar. Then, a system to its SE (looks diffrent from past runs, hmm).

[Ntxw]

http://i59.tinypic.com/nld2r7.png

Up to 192 hours, 973 mbar. Then, a system to its SE (looks diffrent from past runs, hmm).

I think the system 192-216 hours is legit off MEX. The stuff around it may be CCKW steroids on the model (though I wouldn't be surprised if something does turn out there).

[Yellow Evan]

http://i59.tinypic.com/nld2r7.png

Up to 192 hours, 973 mbar. Then, a system to its SE (looks diffrent from past runs, hmm).

I think the system 192-216 hours is legit off MEX. The stuff around it may be CCKW steroids on the model (though I wouldn't be surprised if something does turn out there).

You talking about the 0/20 system for the 192-216 hour system or not?

I think the 2nd MX systems shown in the 6z and 0z GFS is legit, as it has lots of model support. Not sure about the 3rd at day 13-16ish. Keep in mind though we also have MJO.