2015 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

Here comes Kujira passing south of Guam and peak...

[euro6208]

EURO also hinting on Kujira

[euro6208]

CMC on a small midget Kujira south of Guam



EURO



GFS bringing Kujira on a similiar track as Dolphin and WOW, 3rd major in a row?

[euro6208]

1997 57.2475
2003 70.51
1971 73.7725
2015 76.855
2004 80.095
1976 94.7

WOW...

2015 is now at 76.855, making this year the 3rd most active season on record ACE wise. With Noul still active, Dolphin still intensifying and bottoming out sub 900 and potential Kujira, 2015 could be the most active season on record ACE wise through May 31!

[Extratropical94]

Another mind-blowing comparison:

The most active typhoon season, 1964, didn't have its 7th storm (Typhoon Doris) until July 11.

1964 ended up spawning 39 named storms and 26 typhoons., a record that has been lasting for more than 50 years now.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

2nd highest ACE on record YTD


However it is extremely likely that it would exceed 100-115 units because of future TY/STY Dolphin, meaning it would smash all records and looking forward to a hyperactive season!

2015 vs El Niño years
2015 80.4525 (so far)

STRONG
1997 57.2475
1991 51.035
1987 8.6725
1982 43.6925
1972 11.5875

MODERATE
2009 19.765
2002 49.495
1994 19.18
1986 39.59

WEAK
2014 11.5425
2006 27.515
2004 80.095
1976 94.7
1977 1.47

[euro6208]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=76&t=117225&p=2448554#p2448554

WOW...

New invest up...

Maybe Kujira?

[euro6208]

The MJO and KW responsible for the twins and possible triplets have come and gone but it looks like another KW is emerging from the eastern Indian Ocean and making it's way to the WPAC...

As for the MJO, some models bring it back last week of this month...

[euro6208]

The next name on the list is Kujira and it kinda scares me...

It was used 2 times since 2000. Both cat 4's in 2003 and 2009 killing 31 with rampage in Micronesia, Taiwan, and Japan.

Models don't develop anything in the near future with the suppressed phrase of the KW over the basin and the dry phrase of the MJO rolling through the basin. However, models predict the MJO might return next month.

Everyone, we have time to recovery and prepare before the onslaught...

[1900hurricane]

In my period of study (1975 to present day, so keep in mind the domain is a little restricted), this is the first May to feature an intensity estimate of T7.0 for two separate typhoons. 2008 was next closest with JMA T7.0 Rammasun (105 kt) and JMA/JTWC T6.5 Nakri (100 kt/125 kt, respectively).

[euro6208]

As of May 18...

Typhoon Mekkhala - 70 knots - 3.2125

Typhoon Higos - 105 knots - 7.945

Tropical Storm Bavi - 50 knots - 4.1125

Super Typhoon Maysak - 140 knots - 32.1

Tropical Storm Haishen - 45 knots - 1.21

Super Typhoon Noul - 140 knots - 28.5925

Super Typhoon Dolphin - 140 knots - 28.4925 CURRENTLY ACTIVE

[1900hurricane]

Classic El Nino clustering in terms of the locations of storm development.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

2015 ACE thru May 19 (107.677) has surpassed 1997's ACE thru June (104.998) making 2015 third highest so far thru June, even if it is not yet June

http://weather.graphics/wpac_ace_thru_June30

[xtyphooncyclonex]

An unusual number of Category 5 storms so far in 2015
May 16 is exceptionally early to be getting our third Category 5 storm of the year in the Northwest Pacific. The global record for Category 5 storms is held by the El Niño year of 1997, which had twelve Category 5 storms--ten of them in the Northwest Pacific. The third Cat 5 of 1997 in the Northwest Pacific occurred on July 22, so we are more than two months ahead of that year's record pace. Dolphin is also the earliest-appearing 7th named storm of the Northwest Pacific's typhoon season; the previous record was on May 19, 1971. Super Typhoon Dolphin is already Earth's fifth Category Five storm this year, which is an unusually large number of these high-end tropical cyclones for so early in the year. Earth averaged just 4.6 Category 5 storms per year between 1990 - 2014, so we've already exceeded our average for an entire year; 2015 already has the 6th most Category 5 storms for any year in the past 26 years (reliable satellite records of Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones extend back to 1990, so we only have about a 26-year period of decent records for global Category 5 tropical cyclones.) The majority of these storms occur during the July - November peak of the Northern Hemisphere's tropical cyclone season, with 59% of all Cat 5s occurring in the Northwest Pacific, so it is likely we will see several more Cat 5s this year. The early and violent start to 2015 typhoon season is due, in part, to exceptionally warm ocean temperatures in the typhoon breeding region between 5 - 10°N near the Date Line. These temperatures have been over 2°C (3.6°F) above average in recent months, due to a strengthening El Niño event.

From this article
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2992

[euro6208]

A strong suppressed convective phrase of the KW is moving through the basin with signs of the enhanced phrase coming last week of May...Dry MJO is over the area thus models keep the area very quiet for the next 1-2 weeks...

[euro6208]

Lower pressures in the eastern part of the WPAC and with el nino means more long tracking more intense storms affecting the islands as their cyclone genesis is displaced more east to the dateline...

[euro6208]

INCREDIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SEASON RECORDS UP TO DATE!

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=117052

Typhoon Mekkhala

*Mekkhala is the first January typhoon to actually develop in January since 2005's Typhoon Kulap...
*Besides Kulap in 2005, the only other typhoon to actually develop in January goes way back to 1992's Typhoon Axel and 1990's Koryn both peaking at 70 and 75 knots...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=117092

Typhoon Higos

*Higos of 2015 is the 22nd typhoon to occur within January and February since 1945!
*Higos is just the 6th typhoon to occur in February since records began in 1945!
*Higos is the strongest February typhoon since Typhoon Nancy in 1970 which peaked at 120 knots Category 4. Category 5 Mitag in 2002 also was a February storm but peaked in March.
*Second strongest typhoon within February and only the 3rd major typhoon in February since records began...
*Higos holds the record for the most eastern february typhoon at peak on record by more than 500 miles...
*Strongest TC in the northern hemisphere for so early in the season in any basin...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=117131

Tropical Storm Bavi

Found none so far...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=117156

Super Typhoon Maysak

*Maysak is the fourth named storm so far in 2015 in the Western Pacific, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) database shows only one other year since 1945 with more named storms that formed during the first three months of the year--1965, when there were five named storms. Maysak is already the third typhoon of the year, setting a record for the most typhoons so early in the year. The previous record for early season typhoons (during January, February, and March) was two, set in 2005, 1979, and 1955. Major typhoons of Category 3 or stronger intensity are rare before April, and only fifteen such storms have been observed between 1945 - 2014. We already have had one major typhoon in 2015--Typhoon Higos, which topped out as a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds in February.

*Peaking at 140 knots along with Higos, it's the first time two major typhoons have been observed in the Western Pacific during the first three months of the year. Tied with Higos for the strongest early season typhoon and prior to them, there have been only two Category 5 super typhoons in the Western Pacific prior to the month of April. Super Typhoon Ophelia of January 1958 had 160 mph winds, and Super Typhoon Mitag of March 2002 also had 160 mph winds.

*Strongest Pre-April typhoon in recorded history beating out STY Mitag of 2002 pressure wise (905 mb )

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=117168

Tropical Storm Haishen

Found non so far

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=117201

Super Typhoon Noul

*Noul's formation date of May 3 marks the second earliest appearance on record for the Northwest Pacific's sixth named storm of the year. The record is held by 1971, when the sixth named storm of the year (Babe) formed on May 3, six hours earlier than Noul's formation time. The average is 1.8 storms before May 8.

* Noul's central pressure of 915 mb makes it the third strongest typhoon on record for so early in the year. The only stronger ones were Super Typhoon Amy of 1971, which deepened to 890 mb on May 2, and Super Typhoon Iris of 1951, which hit 909 mb on May 3.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=117206

Super Typhoon Dolphin

*Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Dolphin in Micronesia on May 9, breaking the record set on May 19, 1971 for the earliest formation of the Northwest Pacific's seventh named storm of the year. The Seventh storm of the year typically doesn't form until the third week of July

*First ever typhoon to hit Guam in the February to June period since records began in 1945.

* The third Cat 5 of 1997 in the Northwest Pacific occurred on July 22, so we are more than two months ahead of that year's record pace.

*Earth averaged just 4.6 Category 5 storms per year between 1990 - 2014, so we've already exceeded our average for an entire year; 2015 already has the 6th most Category 5 storms for any year in the past 26 years


ACE

*Through May 11 (78.1), just ahead of the old record of 77.7 in 1957.

*Current ACE of 109.168 makes 2015 the most active year on record through May 31 since 1970 surpassing the old record of 94.7 in 1976.

*Another record to chase. Highest ACE on record through June 30 since 1970. 2015 is already the third most active ace wise even beating 1997's ACE by the end of June! Can it beat 1976 and 2004?

1997 104.998
2015 109.168
1976 123.652
2004 162.575

http://weather.graphics/wpac_ace_thru_June30

[ManilaTC]

A strong suppressed convective phrase of the KW is moving through the basin with signs of the enhanced phrase coming last week of May...Dry MJO is over the area thus models keep the area very quiet for the next 1-2 weeks...

Can I ask for them links? thanks

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Actually, Higos is stronger than Typhoon Nancy of 1970. Nancy 1970 had a pressure of 950 mb and Higos had it at 940 mb from JMA or 937 mb from JTWC

The strongest Jan typhoons are Ophelia 1950 and Typhoon Roy 1988, which means Jan typhoons are more common than Feb ones..

[euro6208]

A strong suppressed convective phrase of the KW is moving through the basin with signs of the enhanced phrase coming last week of May...Dry MJO is over the area thus models keep the area very quiet for the next 1-2 weeks...

Can I ask for them links? thanks

From the MJO page at CPC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml

and the KW page at Dr Maue's website

http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/cckwmjo.html