2015 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

Both GFS and ECMWF have landfall at Cabo San Lucas.Before that they go bonkers as a major.

[cycloneye]

Up to 30% in five days.

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred
miles south of the coast of Mexico during the next few days.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development of the system after mid-week while it moves
west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Yellow Evan]

WOW

[gatorcane]

The 00Z ECMWF:

[gatorcane]

06Z GFS goes bonkers, down to 947MB:

[cycloneye]

Both GFS and ECMWF are the same in terms of being strong but differ in two things and those are where it begins to form and what track it takes.It will be very important to see where it begins formation because the more apart from the Mexican coast it forms,the less chance of landfall from Puerto Vallarta to Acapulco area.Cabo San Lucas is different as both go there but by the time it gets there it weakens dues to less warm sst's and shear increases.

[Yellow Evan]

Honestly, who is surprised that models have this going bonkers? This isn't the Atlantic.

[Yellow Evan]

Both GFS and ECMWF are the same in terms of being strong but differ in two things and those are where it begins to form and what track it takes.It will be very important to see where it begins formation because the more apart from the Mexican coast it forms,the less chance of landfall from Puerto Vallarta to Acapulco area.Cabo San Lucas is different as both go there but by the time it gets there it weakens dues to less warm sst's and shear increases.

Right now, everything is trending towards CSL, and it probs won't be much when it gets there. SST's there still are only 23-25C.

[cycloneye]

Up to 0/50:

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred
miles south of the coast of Mexico during the next couple of days.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development of the system by mid-week while it moves
west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS of course has backed off.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF has landfall in Cabo San Lucas in a weakening trend but before that it peaks at 983mbs.By the way GFS blows up another one closer to CentralAmerica coast but is long range.

[Kingarabian]

12z ECMWF has landfall in Cabo San Lucas in a weakening trend but before that it peaks at 983mbs.By the way GFS blows up another one closer to CentralAmerica coast but is long range.

Yep.

Just like that, and the EPAC is alive. The impressive thing about this basin is its capability to fire up storms one after each other.

[Yellow Evan]

Medium range 12z GFs is back. Phew, I just don't wanna end up with 1 storm this outbreak.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF has landfall in Cabo San Lucas in a weakening trend but before that it peaks at 983mbs.By the way GFS blows up another one closer to CentralAmerica coast but is long range.

Yep.

Just like that, and the EPAC is alive. The impressive thing about this basin is its capability to fire up storms one after each other.

Probs. Even with 90E and 91E busting, it was only a week ago we were talking about a late start.

EPAC has just this knack to catch fire and turn into TC city for a week or two, much like the WPAC and the glory days of the ATL.

[cycloneye]

From the 22:05 UTC discussion:

LOOKING AHEAD TO MID
WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LOW PRES NEAR 12N105W THE DEVELOPING
SLOWLY AS IT DRIFTS NW...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME DISCORD
AMONG MODELS ON EXACT LOCATION AND STRENGTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

[cycloneye]

5 PM PDT TWO:

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico in a couple of days. Environmental
conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development of the
system by mid-week while it moves west-northwestward to
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFs weaker, OTS, no more storm #2, stronger storm #3.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS is much closer to the ECMWF on intensity and track. That 947MB MAJOR it showed earlier seemed a bit out of place for this time of year even for the East Pacific. Now it is showing something around 985MB.

[cycloneye]

I would not pay too much attention to what the models are showing in terms of intensity and track because until a low forms and organizes we have to see where it forms to then see down the road what track it takes and depending on the track how strong it may get.And also depending on where it forms,it can be important to see where landfall may occur if it happens.
(Puerto Vallarta to Acapulco area) (Cabo San Lucas)

[Yellow Evan]

18Z GFS is much closer to the ECMWF on intensity and track. That 947MB MAJOR it showed earlier seemed a bit out of place for this time of year even for the East Pacific. Now it is showing something around 985MB.

948 isn't much out of wack. We've had 4 majors in the last 15 years in the EPAC. Really would not surprise me if we got a major.