Texas Spring-2015

[Texas Snowman]

The storm that moved through Grayson County is still tornadic, likely tornado on the ground 3 miles east of Atoka.

Homes were damaged near Blue, Okla. in Bryan County north of the river.

[opticsguy]

Dodged a bullet near Addison. 1/4" of rain in 5 minutes with wind, then just light rain after that. We'll be lucky to get half an inch our of this storm.

[ravyrn]

Devine teenager dies in floodwater over weekend

[HockeyTx82]

So for my own interest why with such a high threat (4 out of 5) of severe weather today has it been rather tame to other days when have been in a lower risk? I know that forecasting is not perfect but my concern is when such high risks are posted and it does not materialize the general public might a false sense for when things really start cranking. Did we not warm up as much as we thought? Have we had so much weather of late my expected level of severe is now higher? It seems things were more south this time. Hope everyone stays safe.

Having had a tornado/funnel cloud move directly over Sherman and Denison this afternoon, I'd say it was pretty good.

Keep in mind that the moderate risk is for severe weather, not just for tornadoes. The tornado threat was always from supercells that could get going in front of the MCS (which is what happened in central Texas and in Grayson County).

Spin-up tornadoes, hail, torrential rains and damaging straight line winds were the biggest threats with the MCS and I'd say that delivered as well.

I see what you are saying. I guess I misunderstood how the levels are set. I always thought that higher risk meant greater threat for supercells, large long track tornadoes and large hail. My misunderstanding. It has been a fairly active day all and all and our fellow Texans down south seem to be getting the worst of it.

[ravyrn]

So for my own interest why with such a high threat (4 out of 5) of severe weather today has it been rather tame to other days when have been in a lower risk? I know that forecasting is not perfect but my concern is when such high risks are posted and it does not materialize the general public might a false sense for when things really start cranking. Did we not warm up as much as we thought? Have we had so much weather of late my expected level of severe is now higher? It seems things were more south this time. Hope everyone stays safe.

There were at least two touchdowns in CTX and one along Red River. Maybe they're being cautious with some of the recent outbreaks we've had in slight and enhanced risk areas. It's still only 3:50pm. We had 7-8 warned cells simultaneously not long ago. I don't think they jumped the gun.

[Shoshana]

Although the tornado warning is over here at the house, we are going to hang out in the bathroom a bit longer. The lightning and rain has been amazing and there have been a few gusts that I could hear inside. Nothing like Saturday night though.

[ravyrn]

I see what you are saying. I guess I misunderstood how the levels are set. I always thought that higher risk meant greater threat for supercells, large long track tornadoes and large hail. My misunderstanding. It has been a fairly active day all and all and our fellow Texans down south seem to be getting the worst of it.

Ntxw also had this explanation for the moderate risk posted earlier today.

The moderate upgrade is likely for the potential high confidence Derecho/MCS that may form. High winds and maybe fast spin ups along the line

Here is the discussion from the SPC for our region on the moderate risk

...NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN OK...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A COMPACT...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST TX. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE RATHER
QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TX THIS MORNING...AND INTO
NORTH TX/SOUTHERN OK LATER TODAY. A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
HAS FORMED IN WEST TX...WITHIN THE ASCENT REGION AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE
AND INTENSIFY THIS MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING RAPIDLY DESTABILIZES
THE AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM OF THE STORMS. MOST OVERNIGHT CAM SOLUTIONS
ARE CONSISTENT IN ORGANIZING THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS INTO A BOWING
MCS /POSSIBLE DERECHO/ THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN
OK LATER TODAY. GIVEN THE FAST AND NEGATIVELY-TILTED NATURE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...THE STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS THAT ARE FORECAST TO PASS
ACROSS THE REGION...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND AMPLE
CAPE...HAVE UPGRADED THIS REGION TO A MODERATE RISK. VERY LARGE
HAIL AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
TORNADO PROBABILITIES HAVE ALSO BEEN RAISED FOR THE RISK OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS FORMING AHEAD OF THE MCS AROUND PEAK HEATING WHEN
INHIBITION WILL BE WEAKEST...AS WELL AS FOR THE RISK OF QLCS
SPIN-UPS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO AR AND NORTHERN LA DURING THE EVENING WITH A
CONTINUED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

[ravyrn]

New tornado warned cell near Teague/Fairfield, TX.

TORNADO WARNING
TXC161-252130-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0097.150525T2054Z-150525T2130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
354 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN FREESTONE COUNTY IN CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 353 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR TEAGUE...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHWESTERN FREESTONE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...STREETMAN AND KIRVIN.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 45 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 199 AND 212.

[HockeyTx82]

I see what you are saying. I guess I misunderstood how the levels are set. I always thought that higher risk meant greater threat for supercells, large long track tornadoes and large hail. My misunderstanding. It has been a fairly active day all and all and our fellow Texans down south seem to be getting the worst of it.

Ntxw also had this explanation for the moderate risk posted earlier today.

The moderate upgrade is likely for the potential high confidence Derecho/MCS that may form. High winds and maybe fast spin ups along the line

Here is the discussion from the SPC for our region on the moderate risk

...NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN OK...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A COMPACT...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST TX. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE RATHER
QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TX THIS MORNING...AND INTO
NORTH TX/SOUTHERN OK LATER TODAY. A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
HAS FORMED IN WEST TX...WITHIN THE ASCENT REGION AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE
AND INTENSIFY THIS MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING RAPIDLY DESTABILIZES
THE AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM OF THE STORMS. MOST OVERNIGHT CAM SOLUTIONS
ARE CONSISTENT IN ORGANIZING THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS INTO A BOWING
MCS /POSSIBLE DERECHO/ THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN
OK LATER TODAY. GIVEN THE FAST AND NEGATIVELY-TILTED NATURE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...THE STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS THAT ARE FORECAST TO PASS
ACROSS THE REGION...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND AMPLE
CAPE...HAVE UPGRADED THIS REGION TO A MODERATE RISK. VERY LARGE
HAIL AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
TORNADO PROBABILITIES HAVE ALSO BEEN RAISED FOR THE RISK OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS FORMING AHEAD OF THE MCS AROUND PEAK HEATING WHEN
INHIBITION WILL BE WEAKEST...AS WELL AS FOR THE RISK OF QLCS
SPIN-UPS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO AR AND NORTHERN LA DURING THE EVENING WITH A
CONTINUED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

Thank you for the responses. I must have overlooked that post. Need to pay better attention next time. Always happy to learn and have been very grateful for this site and all it has taught me.

[Annie Oakley]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
403 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

TXC331-252130-
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0098.000000T0000Z-150525T2130Z/
MILAM TX-
403 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
MILAM COUNTY...

AT 402 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED NEAR CAMERON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

[ravyrn]

Hopefully this rain moves through quickly. I traveled from Little Elm/Frisco down FM423 to 121 today and then from SE Dallas to Jacksonville on US175. Lake Lewisville was about 2 feet away from flooding FM423 at a few spots and Cedar Creek Reservoir was about 1-2 feet from flooding southbound US175 (Northbound lanes are a bit more elevated.

[ravyrn]

Hearing confirmed reports of tornado on the ground in Freestone County.

[ravyrn]

Tornado confirmed north of Cameron, TX

https://twitter.com/tornadotrackers/status/602945273204060160/photo/1

[ravyrn]

Lady Bird Lake in Austin

[Texas Snowman]

:uarrow: I saw some images (though not sure of sources reliability) but damage resembles high end EF3 or EF4. Not certain of building codes in Mexico however to justify.

Death toll in Ciudad Acuna now at 13 with a good number of injuries.

[Rgv20]

Most of the RGV has better than 5000 surface cape..

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
249 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...SOME HAVE TERMED THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY THE `LAND OF WASTED CAPE`...AND THE CURRENT BIG
PICTURE `PUZZLE PIECES` ARE MAKING THE ARGUMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHLY ENERGETIC SHORT WAVE IS CREATING MESSY WEATHER FROM NEAR
AUSTIN INTO OKLAHOMA...AND EVEN PRODUCED A DEADLY TORNADO ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE FROM DEL RIO EARLIER THIS MORNING. WITH THE WAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST...ANY SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE CONVECTIVE WILL FAVOR
EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LEAVE DEEP S. TEXAS OUT OF THE ACTION.
VERY DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM 700-400 MB DOESN`T HELP THE CAUSE FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH ALL THE TRIGGERS WELL REMOVED FROM THE
TIP OF TEXAS.

THE GFS AND NAM BOTH PICK UP ON THE GENERAL ATMOSPHERIC DRYING AND
LACK OF FORCING...WITH RAW DATA AND GUIDANCE BARELY REGISTERING AND
RAINFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP A
VERY SMALL AREA OF 70% MEAN RH ALONG THE TAIL OF WHAT`S LEFT OF THE
EAST TEXAS CONVECTION BETWEEN SUNSET AND 10 PM JUST SOUTHWEST OF
STARR COUNTY BEFORE DISSIPATING IT IN MEXICO...AND THE 18Z HRRR
WANTS TO DO SOMETHING SIMILAR BUT MUCH EARLIER...AS I WRITE THIS A
LITTLE AFTER 230 PM...WHICH HAD NOT HAPPENED AND LOOKS SPURIOUS.

BOTTOM LINE? HAVE TRIMMED BACK RAIN CHANCES AND LOCATIONS EVEN
MORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND KILLED OFF
ALTOGETHER THIS EVENING (OUTSIDE OF A 10 PERCENT SILENT CHANCE).

[ravyrn]

New tornado warned cell SE of Austin:

TORNADO WARNING
TXC021-453-252145-
/O.NEW.KEWX.TO.W.0029.150525T2121Z-150525T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
421 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN TRAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
CENTRAL BASTROP COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 421 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CEDAR CREEK...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INT AP...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELGIN...BASTROP...CEDAR CREEK...CAMP SWIFT...WYLDWOOD...CIRCLE D-KC
ESTATES...WEBBERVILLE...MCDADE...PHELAN...CEDAR HILLS AND BUTLER.

[ravyrn]

^ Aaron Jayjack is trying to intercept that storm.

[ravyrn]

Double Horn Creek near Spicewood, TX

[Cyclenall]

Tornado footage near Pidcoke, TX -- Warning expletive language.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vYaM7ESytiQ

Yet another tornado video where the footage ends for no apparent reason (the tornado was not coming right at them, it was moving parallel or just about), this is oh just the 14th billionth video to cut in the middle of the twister...