ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[gigabite]

The Purpose of this Power Point is to show possible celestial relationships that could influence sea surface temperatures that are cyclical. The first is the range of the mid-summer New Moon. The mid-summer New Moon is the peak of the range for that year. The closer that latitude is to the equator the warmer the equatorial waters are. The second slide shows the relationship of the Earth/Sun distance to el Nino anomaly. That is as the sum of aphelion and perihelion decreases sea surface temperature increases. The third is a longer term event that seems to cause the lower limit of the SOI to approach zero. I suspect that to be the result of the elongation of the Jovian orbit.

[dexterlabio]

looks like the worst of this El Nino has yet to be seen in SE Asia. The last quarter of this year going to the early months of 2016 will be tough. The worst effect of the previous El Nino that pestered the region was felt during those months. And the way this is going we could see the worst drought since 1997.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Gigabite,

I remember you said something about the correlation if the New Moon and El Niño last year, that it will make a net positive SOI and correlation with its latitude. However we never got to see a positive SOI and has been consistently negative since June (Or Feb/March positive blip) You also said that we would see four more years of neutral, but we are currently having a multiyear or double El Niño event which proves your theory has poor verification, plus almost none of us understand that theory.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Too excited, but I'm seeing 1.2C or above next week as this week is 1.1.

[CaliforniaResident]

When do you think we'll hit 2.0 C?
If we hit 3.0 C or higher, when do you think we'll hit that?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

When do you think we'll hit 2.0 C?
If we hit 3.0 C or higher, when do you think we'll hit that?

IMO we may hit 2C for Niño 3.4 by ASO but I don't think it will ever reach 3C, CFSv2 only shows 2.8C which is still strong for the peak on November then gradually start winding down afterwards

[xtyphooncyclonex]

El Niño strengthens
Issued on 26 May 2015 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00

The El Niño in the tropical Pacific continues to strengthen. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate sea surface temperatures will remain well above El Niño thresholds at least into the southern hemisphere spring.

Oceanic and atmospheric indictors show a clear El Niño signal. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have exceeded El Niño thresholds for nearly two months, supported by warmer-than-average waters below the surface. Trade winds have remained consistently weaker than average since the start of the year, cloudiness at the Date Line has increased, and the 90-day average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is now below −10.

El Niño is often associated with below-average winter and spring rainfall over eastern Australia, and above-average daytime temperatures over the southern half of the country. However, the strength of El Niño doesn't directly relate to the strength of its effects on Australia's climate.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral, with the majority of the Indian Ocean being warmer that average. Of the five international models that monitor the IOD, three suggest a positive IOD event is likely later in 2015. A positive IOD is typically associated with reduced winter and spring rainfall over parts of southern and central Australia.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Eight provinces in the Philippines under state of calamity

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-26/e ... ty/6497096

The Philippines has placed eight provinces under a state of calamity due to a drought caused by the El Nino weather phenomenon.

The central Philippines province of Cebu is the latest addition to the list of areas which have been severely impacted by El Nino.

A state of emergency allows its officials to use five per cent of more than $US2 million in local emergency funds to compensate for the losses of farmers.

Meteorologists say more than 50 provinces were beginning to suffer from the effects of the El Nino phenomenon.

They said the onset of the rainy season next month may not alleviate the impact of the drought.

Scientists at Australia's weather bureau this month officially declared a major El Nino event due to an increase in sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

It is likely to bring hotter temperatures and lower rainfall to much of eastern Australia.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Wow.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

We have had hailstorms damage from one storm downunder cost more.

The thing is the damage is high for one starting event, now watch it crank to $500 million or mor

So you're saying 2 Billion pesos is little for crop damage?

[dexterlabio]

I hope California will feel the positive effect of this El Nino. Last time we went there they're suffering from severe drought. It's interesting that CA and portions of southern USA down to South America are having wet and cooler weather when everywhere else in the world is getting warmer and drier during El Nino.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I hope California will feel the positive effect of this El Nino. Last time we went there they're suffering from severe drought. It's interesting that CA and portions of southern USA down to South America are having wet and cooler weather when everywhere else in the world is getting warmer and drier during El Nino.

Parts of East Asia, sub-saharan or Central Africa and Europe tend to have floods as a result of the El Niño

[NDG]

So when is the U.S. National Media start mentioning that the flooding & severe wx across the southern US is due to the current El Nino?

[gigabite]

Gigabite,

I remember you said something about the correlation if the New Moon and El Niño last year, that it will make a net positive SOI and correlation with its latitude. However we never got to see a positive SOI and has been consistently negative since June (Or Feb/March positive blip) You also said that we would see four more years of neutral, but we are currently having a multiyear or double El Niño event which proves your theory has poor verification, plus almost none of us understand that theory.

My hypothesis has some correlations to the el Nino in the 0.6 to 0.8 range depending on how I pick the points. Short segments of any curve don't always project well, even CPC's forcases have extremes. If you remember 6 years ago my long range forecast was for a 1997 like el Nino in this time frame. I had not considered the fact that Jupiter was in opposition then and is in conjunction now. This difference makes the sum of aphelion and perihelion larger now, meaning that the Earth is further from the Sun now then it was in 1997. I don't expect to see a -35 SOI. My point about the ENSO being more neutral longer is a geologic reference to the long cycle and the approach of a cusp of sort that will occur in about 4 years or so when more gravitational energy plays into the system.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Gigabite,

I remember you said something about the correlation if the New Moon and El Niño last year, that it will make a net positive SOI and correlation with its latitude. However we never got to see a positive SOI and has been consistently negative since June (Or Feb/March positive blip) You also said that we would see four more years of neutral, but we are currently having a multiyear or double El Niño event which proves your theory has poor verification, plus almost none of us understand that theory.

My hypothesis has some correlations to the el Nino in the 0.6 to 0.8 range depending on how I pick the points. Short segments of any curve don't always project well, even CPC's forcases have extremes. If you remember 6 years ago my long range forecast was for a 1997 like el Nino in this time frame. I had not considered the fact that Jupiter was in opposition then and is in conjunction now. This difference makes the sum of aphelion and perihelion larger now, meaning that the Earth is further from the Sun now then it was in 1997. I don't expect to see a -35 SOI. My point about the ENSO being more neutral longer is a geologic reference to the long cycle and the approach of a cusp of sort that will occur in about 4 years or so when more gravitational energy plays into the system.

No I don't since I was here 2 years ago. I still do not you the theory but I started closely following ENSO since 2014. I like your idea of the correlation but I wouldn't buy that forecast and theory just yet. I really think you should know most of us do not know of the connection and all those terms actually since this is an ocean climate thread not astroscience. I do not know any of these connections and not always certain since the connections have differences with the SOI values and SST anomalies. Plus SOI values only are the difference between the pressures of Darwin and Tahiti not solely in connection with the aphelion.

Yes I get your point with the latitude, but since that hypothesis you said about the geologic reference resulting to a longer neutral period of time became bunk, we're seeing a double El Niño. So the conclusion? It is not always certain whether ENSO totally correlates in the latitude and moon phases. See this year

[Ntxw]

So when is the U.S. National Media start mentioning that the flooding & severe wx across the southern US is due to the current El Nino?

They won't they will focus on California for now. The El Nino basically eliminated 8 years of drought in mere months for Texas and Oklahoma. So there's that for you Cal folks, it can change quickly.

CPC update is up and official

Niño 4: 1.1ºC
Niño 3.4: 1.1ºC
Niño 3: 1.2ºC
Niño 1+2: 2.6ºC

[cycloneye]

Text.The ONI is at +0.6C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 18m18 minutes ago
Recent WWB compares favorably to 1997, keeping 2015 ahead of that year. Another burst to come late week! #ElNino

[xtyphooncyclonex]

:uarrow: Text.The ONI is at +0.6C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

It's because the ONI is as of FMA. MAM for sure would be higher than that (0.7-1.0) and it's too early to tell that the ONI value is that. We should maybe post the ONI data 2 weeks from now or a few hours prior to BOM's update

[Ntxw]

Indeed impressive to see westerlies along and east of 120W. Raw values are not like what you see out west but even in big ninos you dont see them that far east. Rare event we havent seen in awhile.