2015 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

Up to 20/80.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico are associated with a trough of low
pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form after mid-week while the
system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[Yellow Evan]

CFS very bullish on an active June, including a MX hurricane.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS rolling out.

So far so weak.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS only slightly weaker than the 0z

[Yellow Evan]

http://imageshack.com/a/img908/6008/zaMRNc.png[
GFS is a TD on the 28th then explodes with RI.


http://imageshack.com/a/img673/5332/wH1VzH.png

OUCH another Odile hotel smasher?

GFS actually stalls it offshore. SST's this time of year are near 25C anyhow.

[cycloneye]

00z Euro was lame.

[Yellow Evan]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico are associated with a trough of low
pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form after mid-week while the
system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[cycloneye]

5 AM PDT.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico are associated with a trough of low
pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this week while
the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS has Blanca by day 16

[img]http://i58.tinypic.com/9h41zo.png/img]

Wtf at 0z ECMWf



6z GFS a little stronger than 0z.

[tolakram]

Man, the euro had a really really bad run. I've never seen it get that confused.

[Yellow Evan]

I think the one on the right is 20/80, but the one on the left is between 91E and he 20/80 that some GFS members and the CMC show.

[tolakram]

:uarrow: I think the one on the right is 20/80, but the one on the left is between 91E and he 20/80 that some GFS members and the CMC show.

Previous run that was a single storm so I'm not so sure. This afternoons run will be interesting.

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: I think the one on the right is 20/80, but the one on the left is between 91E and he 20/80 that some GFS members and the CMC show.

Previous run that was a single storm so I'm not so sure. This afternoons run will be interesting.

Not sure either, just guessing. Agree that 12z run will be key.

[gatorcane]

Strange ECMWF run and has really backed off and now showing a storm above 1000MB. Need to see 12Z run.

[Yellow Evan]

Strange ECMWF run and has really backed off and now showing a storm above 1000MB. Need to see 12Z run.

Believe it is the 991 mbar system and the 1000 near system is between 91E and the 20/80. Won't be surprised if the run was intilized wrong.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS has pressure down to 972mbs.

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico are associated with a trough of low
pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this week while
the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[Kingarabian]

They're saying another WWB is on its way as well. We should see more storms forming soon.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF has two systems at 96 hours.

[tolakram]

Well,

I guess now we see if the updated Euro has really picked out 2 storms or if we are seeing some kind of bug in the algorithm.