ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[gigabite]

Gigabite,

I remember you said something about the correlation if the New Moon and El Niño last year, that it will make a net positive SOI and correlation with its latitude. However we never got to see a positive SOI and has been consistently negative since June (Or Feb/March positive blip) You also said that we would see four more years of neutral, but we are currently having a multiyear or double El Niño event which proves your theory has poor verification, plus almost none of us understand that theory.

My hypothesis has some correlations to the el Nino in the 0.6 to 0.8 range depending on how I pick the points. Short segments of any curve don't always project well, even CPC's forcases have extremes. If you remember 6 years ago my long range forecast was for a 1997 like el Nino in this time frame. I had not considered the fact that Jupiter was in opposition then and is in conjunction now. This difference makes the sum of aphelion and perihelion larger now, meaning that the Earth is further from the Sun now then it was in 1997. I don't expect to see a -35 SOI. My point about the ENSO being more neutral longer is a geologic reference to the long cycle and the approach of a cusp of sort that will occur in about 4 years or so when more gravitational energy plays into the system.

No I don't since I was here 2 years ago. I still do not you the theory but I started closely following ENSO since 2014. I like your idea of the correlation but I wouldn't buy that forecast and theory just yet. I really think you should know most of us do not know of the connection and all those terms actually since this is an ocean climate thread not astroscience. I do not know any of these connections and not always certain since the connections have differences with the SOI values and SST anomalies. Plus SOI values only are the difference between the pressures of Darwin and Tahiti not solely in connection with the aphelion.

Yes I get your point with the latitude, but since that hypothesis you said about the geologic reference resulting to a longer neutral period of time became bunk, we're seeing a double El Niño. So the conclusion? It is not always certain whether ENSO totally correlates in the latitude and moon phases. See this year

I think my null hypothesis would be more accurately stated as: “ the period between 2012 to 2017 will experience neutral to weak el Nino conditions”

[asd123]

Indeed impressive to see westerlies along and east of 120W. Raw values are not like what you see out west but even in big ninos you dont see them that far east. Rare event we havent seen in awhile.

What significant effect does westerly wind bursts that are farther east than usual have on El Nino? I understand that if the westerly wind bursts are further west, then it pushes the warm water and the water levels east. But when the wwb are further east, then what happens?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I think my null hypothesis would be more accurately stated as: “ the period between 2012 to 2017 will experience neutral to weak el Nino conditions”

To add to the statement, we're now approaching moderate to strong conditions and looks nothing like a weak Niño

[Ntxw]

Indeed impressive to see westerlies along and east of 120W. Raw values are not like what you see out west but even in big ninos you dont see them that far east. Rare event we havent seen in awhile.

What significant effect does westerly wind bursts that are farther east than usual have on El Nino? I understand that if the westerly wind bursts are further west, then it pushes the warm water and the water levels east. But when the wwb are further east, then what happens?

Easier to warm the waters of the eastern basins. Really you only need to weaken the easterlies relative to average to warm it but westerlies just helps more as the subsurface comes up. Also it helps provide convection over the eastern equatorial Pacific, weakening the walker cell. So in short what it is showing is that the atmosphere is reacting strongly to the ocean.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Read more here http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... imics-1997

El Nino Data Mimic Record 1997-98 Event as IMF Warns on Food

The El Nino taking hold across the Pacific strengthened, according to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, citing indexes of sea-surfaces temperatures that showed the same trend for the first time since the event in 1997-1998.

All five NINO indexes, averaged over the past four weeks, exceeded plus 1 degree Celsius, the bureau said in its fortnightly update on Tuesday. That’s the first time this has occurred since the 1997-1998 El Nino, the bureau said.

Australia this month joined the U.S. and Japan in declaring that the first El Nino since 2010 had begun. The 1997-1998 event was the strongest on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The weather patterns can bake parts of Asia, hurting crops from rice to palm oil, while crimping the hurricane season in the Atlantic and bringing more rain across the southern U.S.

“The area of warm anomalies in the tropical Pacific now more resembles a classical El Nino pattern,” the bureau said. “Sea-surface temperatures will remain well above El Nino thresholds at least into the southern hemisphere spring.”

[Hurricaneman]

It seems as though some of the Met offices are even going for a Super El Nino so that is a Possibility but may be too bullish but as we all know we'll know more by September

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[xtyphooncyclonex]

El Niño well establishing itself. When I first saw this, I thought this was 1997.



Meanwhile here's 2014, at this time falling apart in the comparison

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Do the flooding in Texas/Oklahoma and heat wave/drought over South and SE Asia have something to do with El Niño?

[Ntxw]

Do the flooding in Texas/Oklahoma and heat wave/drought over South and SE Asia have something to do with El Niño?

The Texas/Oklahoma flooding does, I don't understand SE Asia's weather patterns to say for sure there. Throughout April and May OLR anomalies stretched from across the Pacific towards those states. It is a direct result.

[curtadams]

Do the flooding in Texas/Oklahoma and heat wave/drought over South and SE Asia have something to do with El Niño?

Yes, El Ninos raise the frequency of droughts in India: http://drought.unl.edu/DroughtBasics/EN ... sting.aspx

[Kingarabian]

[Ntxw]

This is no longer your slow moving El Nino, it is on it's way into a major one. The thermocline has tipped and the eastern Pacific below is gradually becoming what the Western Pacific typically is. At the surface is doing the same, as 1.5C or greater is now overspreading and expanding through Nino 3.4. We very well might have a strong event by late summer and you'd definitely be thinking about 2C if this continues. The progression in May has this the strongest event (for this month) even beating out 1997 overall. Doesn't mean we will beat 1997 later on, but on it's own this is no slouch of an event.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

30-day SOI fell to -18.8

Anyway for SSTs and winds here is the comparison



Depth Anoms, 2015 anoms are weakening but are getting larger and increasing in depth (props go to CFSv2)

[MiamiensisWx]

Is it normal to see such a strong fluctuation in the SOI with a developing strong Niño? The latest daily value shows a dramatic positive surge to +17.6 with a steady rise in the 30- and 90-day values over the past several days.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

[Ntxw]

Is it normal to see such a strong fluctuation in the SOI with a developing strong Niño? The latest daily value shows a dramatic positive surge to +17.6 with a steady rise in the 30- and 90-day values over the past several days.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

It's normal, the daily SOI had been so negative for so long it had to end eventually. As long as the 30 day and 90 day remain below 8 it's not too much more than noise, if the next negatives outweighs the positive then it would only be a blip. What would be different is if we started seeing +30s.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Is it normal to see such a strong fluctuation in the SOI with a developing strong Niño? The latest daily value shows a dramatic positive surge to +17.6 with a steady rise in the 30- and 90-day values over the past several days.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

Yes. Generally the trend is big negatives going down over the 30 day values

See the graphs

[xtyphooncyclonex]

IMO we could see a >1.2°C reading for Niño 3.4 by Monday, since big warming happening over the east central Pacific which means we're ahead of every El Niño since 1950 excluding the weakening ones. Warm anomalies are spreading and growing larger over the equator and surrounding areas.

[Hurricaneman]

ENSO 3-4 is warming to like 1.3 above normal while ENSO 1-2 seem to be cooling from near 3* above normal to like 1.6 above normal, although its not likely wouldn't it be funny if this becomes a strong El Nino but transitions to a madoki at the same time similar to the 1991 El Nino or 1965 El Nino if so there could be interesting analog storms to that idea

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Ntxw]

ENSO 3-4 is warming to like 1.3 above normal while ENSO 1-2 seem to be cooling from near 3* above normal to like 1.6 above normal, although its not likely wouldn't it be funny if this becomes a strong El Nino but transitions to a madoki at the same time similar to the 1991 El Nino or 1965 El Nino if so there could be interesting analog storms to that idea

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

For this to happen you will need easterlies to kick up in the eastern equatorial Pacific and forcing to occur in the west Pacific. There is no such forecast as anomalous westerlies is stronger east of the dateline. In fact easterlies are cooling the western Pacific even further lessening the likeliness of a modoki.

[Yellow Evan]

ENSO 3-4 is warming to like 1.3 above normal while ENSO 1-2 seem to be cooling from near 3* above normal to like 1.6 above normal, although its not likely wouldn't it be funny if this becomes a strong El Nino but transitions to a madoki at the same time similar to the 1991 El Nino or 1965 El Nino if so there could be interesting analog storms to that idea

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

1991 started a Modoki and turned traditional IIRC. As I've said, a Modoki is highly unlikely, given the extreme westerlies over the EPAC.