EPAC: ANDRES - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Based on that RapidSCAT, agreed with 50 kt for the initial intensity. Also the genesis time I could see being pushed back to 0000Z.

They upped the 12z from 35kts to 40kts.

EP, 01, 2015052812, , BEST, 0, 111N, 1110W, 40, 1002, TS

[Yellow Evan]

Based on that RapidSCAT, agreed with 50 kt for the initial intensity. Also the genesis time I could see being pushed back to 0000Z.

They upped the 12z from 35kts to 40kts.

EP, 01, 2015052812, , BEST, 0, 111N, 1110W, 40, 1002, TS

Seems fair.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

It's worth noting that model guidance has been shifting west over the past few runs. This might allow Andres to spend more time over warmer waters compared to if it tracked northwest.

[Yellow Evan]

SHIPS has moderate wind shear for 5 days, which it might be overdoing dice shear rarely stays moderate for that long. It did the same thing last year.

[CrazyC83]

A recent ASCAT pass showing several 40-45kt wind barbs and one 50kt barb is likely why NHC upped it:

Given the low bias and earlier data, I could even see a case for 60 kt right now.

[Kingarabian]

A recent ASCAT pass showing several 40-45kt wind barbs and one 50kt barb is likely why NHC upped it:

Given the low bias and earlier data, I could even see a case for 60 kt right now.

Yeah, raw ADT numbers are up to 4.2 right now.

The NHC usually goes higher than what ASCAT shows if the system is weak. Also, if the NHC is forecasting 105MPH, then I believe MH status is certainly not out of the question.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Kingarabian]

Warm spot.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015
300 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

The satellite presentation of Andres continues to improve, with a
band of convection now wrapping about three-quarters of the way
around the center. A recent ASCAT pass revealed maximum winds
of about 50 kt, so the initial intensity has been increased
accordingly. The scatterometer data also provided a better
estimate of the size of the tropical cyclone wind field, and the
tropical-storm-force wind radii have been adjusted outward.

The satellite data indicate that the center is located a bit
southwest of the previous estimate, but the overall initial motion
remains west-northwest or 295 degrees at 10 kt. The track forecast
reasoning is unchanged from before. Andres should move west-
northwestward to northwestward around the southwestern portion of a
mid-level ridge extending westward over the eastern Pacific from
central Mexico. The 1200 UTC global models show more ridging to the
north of Andres late in the period than previous runs, which has
resulted in a westward shift in the track guidance. The NHC
forecast has been adjusted westward, but it lies along the right
side of the guidance envelope.

Environmental conditions consisting of warm water and low shear
should allow for continued steady strengthening during the next
couple of days. Although the latest SHIPS RI index shows a lower
chance of rapid strengthening during the next 24 hours than this
morning, it would not be surprising if rapid intensification
occurred. The NHC forecast is near the upper end of the intensity
guidance and is closest to the SHIPS model. After 72 hours, Andres
should begin to weaken when it encounters slightly cooler sea
surface temperatures and a drier and more stable airmass.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 11.6N 112.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 12.3N 113.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 13.1N 114.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 13.9N 115.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 14.9N 116.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 16.5N 117.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 17.5N 120.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 18.0N 122.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 MAY 2015 Time : 200000 UTC
Lat : 11:31:45 N Lon : 112:22:04 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1003.7mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.3 4.2

Center Temp : -60.9C Cloud Region Temp : -66.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 57km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 29.5 degrees

[Kingarabian]

[Kingarabian]

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 MAY 2015 Time : 203000 UTC
Lat : 11:33:51 N Lon : 112:26:02 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 /1002.5mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.5 4.2

Center Temp : -58.7C Cloud Region Temp : -64.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 57km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 29.4 degrees

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

One thing that will need to be watched over the coming hours is dry air. Although shear is light, Andres is still in the process of building an inner core, and that core is not yet protected. If it manages to get in, we might see Andres stop intensifying for a brief period.

[Yellow Evan]

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm


Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 MAY 2015 Time : 210000 UTC
Lat : 11:36:00 N Lon : 112:30:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 /1001.2mb/ 49.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.5 4.2

Center Temp : -54.6C Cloud Region Temp : -63.3C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 57km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 29.4 degrees

[Kingarabian]

[Yellow Evan]

Is it me or is this developing a banding eye?

[Kingarabian]

Is it me or is this developing a banding eye?

Looks like it. That AMSU microwave image shows some sort of eyewall to support it.

[Yellow Evan]

Also worth pointing out that dry air appears to be getting in the core. Could slow RI for an hour or so.

[Kingarabian]

Also worth pointing out that dry air appears to be getting in the core. Could slow RI for an hour or so.

Certainly, but usually when we see dry air intrusion you would see a "crack" within the deep convection. This thing seems to be wrapping and becoming warmer; typically seen when an eye is trying to form.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

Also worth pointing out that dry air appears to be getting in the core. Could slow RI for an hour or so.

Certainly, but usually when we see dry air intrusion you would see a "crack" within the deep convection. This thing seems to be wrapping and becoming warmer; typically seen when an eye is trying to form.

Doesn't look like much I agree, but you can def see it on satellite imagery. Has that CATL look.