Texas Spring-2015

[Ntxw]

HRRR has continually showed the storm weakening rapidly as they approach I-35 from the west. What is causing this weakening?

Hrrr has been trying to outrun the southern MCS cutting off moisture to the northern end. Hasn't been the case so far on radar, nothern line holding well

[Brent]

HRRR is also way too slow with the line... the rain is gonna be over by 1am yet it has the line just arriving lol. I can buy it weakening some but it's still gonna be a rain mass at the least.

Time to nowcast

[TheProfessor]

Looks like par of the line might be beginning to train. It will probably be over before 1, but it might last a little longer.

[Ntxw]

It's quickly putting down 2-3 inches of rain. Will DFW get the 1.36" needed to beat 1982 and propel to the top spot? 1957 will get beat that's almost sure with 0.34" for that at #2.

[TexasF6]

WHERE IS PORTASTORM??? How did we have TORNADOES in ROUND ROCK today??? And NO WARNING!!!???????????? Fix it Porta!!!!!!! WxMan57???!!!! Aggiecutter?!!! Help!! Kxan reported this today!!! I was watching radar.....at the time....heard tremendous thunder and lightening? Heavy rain? But a twister????? Parameters were not on point for a twister (or so I thought) today?!!! This is dangerous folks.

[TheProfessor]

There was a small chance for a Tornado, the only parameter really missing was vertical shear, but an outflow boundary could have replaced the shear.

[aggiecutter]

Here is a picture from this afternoon of the flood waters of the Red River just north of Texarkana. The river is expected to rise 2 more feet before cresting on Sunday just north of town.

[aggiecutter]

WHERE IS PORTASTORM??? How did we have TORNADOES in ROUND ROCK today??? And NO WARNING!!!???????????? Fix it Porta!!!!!!! WxMan57???!!!! Aggiecutter?!!! Help!! Kxan reported this today!!! I was watching radar.....at the time....heard tremendous thunder and lightening? Heavy rain? But a twister????? Parameters were not on point for a twister (or so I thought) today?!!! This is dangerous folks.

Actually, I talked to Portastorm at a Texarkana eating establishment a couple weeks ago. He told me that he was no longer a weather enthusiast(no snow in Austin for 10 years). He went onto to say that hunting for Bigfoot was his new calling in life, and he was on his way to Fouke, Arkansas(which is 15 miles SE of Texarkana) to find the Fouke Monster(The Legend of Boggy Creek).

[Smurfwicked]

Is this going to hold together and make it down here to southeast Texas with more torrential rains like last weekend?

[Ntxw]

It is a big state to cover

[ravyrn]

Drove to New Braunfels/San Marcos yesterday and back today to move my stepdad's brother into a new assisted living facility. Every river between Jacksonville and there was flooded except for the Blanco and Guadelupe (though evidence of the extreme flooding of the Blanco was present along TX21 and TX80). Once we neared TX80, we saw tons of carpet out on the curb. I was surprised to see most businesses in the flooded area on the west side of the Blanco around the Walmart open and doing business as usual, though you could tell some were sorting through the mess.

I'll post some pictures I took of the rivers on my iPhone as well as some of the 2011 Bastrop forest fire area when I get a chance later tonight or tomorrow. I also have a video of me crossing the Trinity on US 79 west of Palestine. It's a mile wide.

[ravyrn]

Here's the video of us crossing the Trinity River just west of Palestine.

I've got a ton of photos I took (quality not great, I forgot the camera so I had to use my iPhone). I'm finishing a contract tonight, but will try to organize them into an album either later tonight or tomorrow.

[ravyrn]

Any specific word on that cell near Pumpville? That thing looks intense!

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1035 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

TXC137-271-385-463-465-290430-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0178.000000T0000Z-150529T0430Z/
REAL TX-EDWARDS TX-KINNEY TX-UVALDE TX-VAL VERDE TX-
1035 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM CDT
FOR REAL...SOUTHWESTERN EDWARDS...NORTHERN KINNEY...NORTHWESTERN
UVALDE AND VAL VERDE COUNTIES...

AT 1035 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF LOST MAPLES STATE PARK TO NEAR
VANCE TO 20 MILES NORTH OF ALAMO VILLAGE TO 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CARTA VALLEY TO NEAR COMSTOCK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DEL RIO...BRACKETTVILLE...LEAKEY...LANGTRY...LOMA ALTA...COMSTOCK...
JUNO...CAMP WOOD...LAGUNA...MONTELL...ALAMO VILLAGE...CONCAN...
STANDART...LAKE VIEW...AMANDA...PUMPVILLE...VAL VERDE PARK...SEMINOLE
CANYON STATE PARK...BOX CANYON-AMISTAD AND OSMAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3028 10176 3029 10128 2993 10073 2994 9992
3000 9969 2991 9969 2990 9960 2955 9958
2947 9971 2931 10035 2931 10091 2946 10106
2953 10126 2962 10125 2963 10126 2958 10129
2957 10129 2977 10140 2981 10154 2978 10176
TIME...MOT...LOC 0335Z 321DEG 34KT 2997 9969 2980 10005 2970 10046
2966 10082 2966 10112

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH

[ravyrn]

As of today, all of DFW's supplying reservoirs are 100% full. Bridgeport was the last standout as of last week but has since topped. I'd say watering restrictions will be lowered, but really do we need to? It rains every day or every other...

When was the last time all reservoirs were @ 100%?

[ravyrn]

Is this going to hold together and make it down here to southeast Texas with more torrential rains like last weekend?

Link to the HRRR. Click the latest run and loop all for its forecast. I'd say you can expect, at the very least, some moderate rain tomorrow morning. I'm no pro or even a seasoned amateur though, so hopefully one of our greats can give you a more detailed and precise answer. But I wouldn't describe the rain you receive in the morning as torrential rains. Though at this point, any rain we get in the state of Texas could cause problems due to how saturated the ground is everywhere.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[vbhoutex]

Is this going to hold together and make it down here to southeast Texas with more torrential rains like last weekend?

Currently models are holding the line together till it gets to SE TX/Houston. However, if they are correct it will not be like early this week. Could pick up an inch or so tomorrow morning from the line moving through. Obviously this could change but that was as of 10 pm tonight.
Saturday night to Sunday may be the real deal we need to watch for as some models are showing enough rain to really cause more problems, like up to 3" in some places which NO ONE IN TEXAS needs at this time with most of our rivers above flood stage.

[Texas Snowman]

Flash flood warnings everywhere to the west of Lake Texoma in the Red River Valley tonight.

The Great Lake Texoma Flood of 2015 continues with no end in sight.

And the lake's flood level record of 644.76 feet above sea level (set in 1990) will be surpassed sometime within the next 12 hours. The big reservoir is currently sitting at 644.39 feet...and rising.

Texoma probably goes past the record sometime before sunrise.

Amazing, just amazing.

[ravyrn]

Flash flood warnings everywhere to the west of Lake Texoma in the Red River Valley tonight.

The Great Lake Texoma Flood of 2015 continues with no end in sight.

And the lake's flood level record of 644.76 feet above sea level (set in 1990) will be surpassed sometime within the next 12 hours. The big reservoir is currently sitting at 644.39 feet...and rising.

Texoma probably goes past the record sometime before sunrise.

Amazing, just amazing.

Is there still a live feed cam on the spillway? I know someone linked it but trying to wrap up a contract and wrap up my busy week and enjoy a 3 day weekend. If it's still up and someone has it bookmarked, please link so I can check it out in the morning. Thanks!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

We had a friend suffer damage yesterday and already my friends are freaking out about this line of storms even though its so far away. Trying to explain meteorology to them is quite difficult though lol

[Brent]

omg this line is moving so slowwwww. Stilll hasn't reached me yet