ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[gigabite]

This is a plot of the SOI for the 2014 el Nino,
the last strong el Nino was in 2009,
and the 1997 el Nino.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

May SOI should be in the -teens given the extraordinary warm (negative) values we saw. 2015 got more negative

[xtyphooncyclonex]

ENSO 3-4 is warming to like 1.3 above normal while ENSO 1-2 seem to be cooling from near 3* above normal to like 1.6 above normal, although its not likely wouldn't it be funny if this becomes a strong El Nino but transitions to a madoki at the same time similar to the 1991 El Nino or 1965 El Nino if so there could be interesting analog storms to that idea

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1991 started a Modoki and turned traditional IIRC. As I've said, a Modoki is highly unlikely, given the extreme westerlies over the EPAC.

Models show a hybrid type Strong to Super El Niño then later transitioning to a traditional Niño. Warmest temps would be over Niño 3, more like eastern hybrid. 1965 is a good analog, and this year (2015) maybe be mistaken for a modoki however given lower Niño 1+2 values

[Ntxw]

1991 started a Modoki and turned traditional IIRC. As I've said, a Modoki is highly unlikely, given the extreme westerlies over the EPAC.
Models show a hybrid type Strong to Super El Niño then later transitioning to a traditional Niño. Warmest temps would be over Niño 3, more like eastern hybrid. 1965 is a good analog, and this year (2015) maybe be mistaken for a modoki however given lower Niño 1+2 values

To get a true modoki you need to get Nino 1+2 cold. Having it lower than 3 and 3.4 doesn't really mean much if all the regions remains above Nino threshold. The idea of modoki is to get convection confined to the WPAC and west of the dateline. If convection keeps going east then it's no use. True modoki in a sense that we like to think of (2004) usually is left for the very weakest of Nino's that don't have enough westerlies/atmospheric response to warm 1+2 thus limiting convection in the eastern equatorial Pacific.

[Cyclenall]

I haven't followed ENSO for a long time and I have two questions as a result:

1. When did the idea that a strong El Nino is on the way arise (instead of weak-moderate and/or Modoki)?

2. Based on this page, it sounds like Modoki is very unlikely, when did the consensus figure it was not going to be that type?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I haven't followed ENSO for a long time and I have two questions as a result:

1. When did the idea that a strong El Nino is on the way arise (instead of weak-moderate and/or Modoki)?

2. Based on this page, it sounds like Modoki is very unlikely, when did the consensus figure it was not going to be that type?

1. That idea started last Feb perhaps when models started picking up on the current weak Modoki Niño we had at the time. EL NIÑO was actually declared March 5 given the ONI exceeded 0.5 for at least 3 trimonthlies. Instead of getting more conservative as the spring barrier ends, the models increased their peaks and thus IRI dynamic model consensus clearly shows a strong peak of 1.6C for 4 trimonthlies, yet the Pacific is warming faster ahead of 1997 and we're having WWBs stronger than 1997 this time of year. We're also currently having a downwelling KW and 1.5C anomalies surfacing. We're not seeing the bust last year since we're having another round of favorability (warming SSTs, strengthening WWB and KW) and in case you did not know, we have had 3 super typhoons already over the WPAC in response to the WWB which we never saw last year, not even 1997 nor other EL NIÑO event. All ECMWF ensemble models show a peak of above (>1.6C) and lesser spread. We're getting more atmo response to this. WPAC ACE is now at 109, much above the norm to date of 26 which we normally get during late August not early May. We're having a moderate El Niño currently, and over 2 weeks ago both JMA and BOM declared the onset of El Niño conditions

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Paci ... oon_season

2. Significant warm anomalies began surfacing (+4C at least) over the eastern Pacific, and no need to explain further

Just look at this map for the answers



30-day SOI is very negative



High warm anomalies are surfacing

[gigabite]

1

Historically anomalies that start later in the year are shorter in duration. The el Nino is a
measure of a seasonal anomaly " three-month average of sea surface temperature
departures from normal " 2 as the season changes the three month average changes.

1 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml
2 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/climate/STIP/ElNinoDef.htm

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Almost every year (in the ePac) that starts with the name Andres ends up being at least a warm neutral year since 1991 (1991, 1997, 2003, 2009 & 2015)

[Kingarabian]

As soon as those WWB's started happening and they continue to happen.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

As soon as those WWB's started happening and they continue to happen.

What do you mean?

[Kingarabian]

As soon as those WWB's started happening and they continue to happen.

What do you mean?

Sorry, forgot to quote Cyclenall. T'was my reply to when did the talk of a strong Nino start.

[CaliforniaResident]

There are still some models who say it could go as high as 4.0 C at peak:
https://a.disquscdn.com/uploads/mediaem ... iginal.gif

[xtyphooncyclonex]

There are still some models who say it could go as high as 4.0 C at peak:
https://a.disquscdn.com/uploads/mediaem ... iginal.gif

Hey, you are mistaken for that. The model line is 2.6C and is composed of ENSEMBLE MEMBERS which are very warm biased. There are no MODELS which show a peak that strong at 4.0 and stop harping for a super Niño please

[talkon]

I've noticed Nino 1+2 region is cooling down a lot. Is it a data error?

[Kingarabian]

I've noticed Nino 1+2 region is cooling down a lot. Is it a data error?

People on WU are saying because there's a WWB over Nino 3.4, easterlies are pushed over Nino 1+ 2.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It is a data error please see the OSPO and UNISYS data they show Niño 1+2 warming

[LarryWx]

I've noticed Nino 1+2 region is cooling down a lot. Is it a data error?

I see that the Cowan Niño 1 + 2 has fallen from +2.3 to +0.9 in a mere six days and it is still falling fast! This could easily fall to near +0.5 based on its still steep drop. However, I do wonder about its accuracy. Compared to NCEP's +2.6 of last week, Cowan's graph was about 0.8C too cool since it suggested only about +1.8 per the graph. For tomorrow's 1 + 2, it is actually projecting about +1.9 or slightly warmer than the prior week based on the same graph. Let's see what tomorrow's NCEP release will show. Also, let's see how Cowan's graph looks about a week from now. With this region's inherent relatively high volatility (especially just after the sudden strong move being suggested), it could easily then show a lot warmer than it currently shows.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino12.png

[Ntxw]

I've noticed Nino 1+2 region is cooling down a lot. Is it a data error?

I see that the Cowan Niño 1 + 2 has fallen from +2.3 to +0.9 in a mere six days and it is still falling fast! This could easily fall to near +0.5 based on its still steep drop. However, I do wonder about its accuracy. Compared to NCEP's +2.6 of last week, Cowan's graph was about 0.8C too cool since it suggested only about +1.8 per the graph. For tomorrow's 1 + 2, it is actually projecting about +1.9 or slightly warmer than the prior week based on the same graph. Let's see what tomorrow's NCEP release will show. Also, let's see how Cowan's graph looks about a week from now. With this region's inherent relatively high volatility (especially just after the sudden strong move being suggested), it could easily then show a lot warmer than it currently shows.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino12.png

Larry I was checking some other sources such as reynold's SST and it doesn't show that kind of sig cooling. I have been awry at these daily depictions from tropicaltidbits for whatever reason they haven't been stellar with actual updates from the CPC.

[Kingarabian]

I've noticed Nino 1+2 region is cooling down a lot. Is it a data error?

I see that the Cowan Niño 1 + 2 has fallen from +2.3 to +0.9 in a mere six days and it is still falling fast! This could easily fall to near +0.5 based on its still steep drop. However, I do wonder about its accuracy. Compared to NCEP's +2.6 of last week, Cowan's graph was about 0.8C too cool since it suggested only about +1.8 per the graph. For tomorrow's 1 + 2, it is actually projecting about +1.9 or slightly warmer than the prior week based on the same graph. Let's see what tomorrow's NCEP release will show. Also, let's see how Cowan's graph looks about a week from now. With this region's inherent relatively high volatility (especially just after the sudden strong move being suggested), it could easily then show a lot warmer than it currently shows.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino12.png

Larry I was checking some other sources such as reynold's SST and it doesn't show that kind of sig cooling. I have been awry at these daily depictions from tropicaltidbits for whatever reason they haven't been stellar with actual updates from the CPC.

Third year in a row where we see abrupt (false) changes.

[LarryWx]

I've noticed Nino 1+2 region is cooling down a lot. Is it a data error?

I see that the Cowan Niño 1 + 2 has fallen from +2.3 to +0.9 in a mere six days and it is still falling fast! This could easily fall to near +0.5 based on its still steep drop. However, I do wonder about its accuracy. Compared to NCEP's +2.6 of last week, Cowan's graph was about 0.8C too cool since it suggested only about +1.8 per the graph. For tomorrow's 1 + 2, it is actually projecting about +1.9 or slightly warmer than the prior week based on the same graph. Let's see what tomorrow's NCEP release will show. Also, let's see how Cowan's graph looks about a week from now. With this region's inherent relatively high volatility (especially just after the sudden strong move being suggested), it could easily then show a lot warmer than it currently shows.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino12.png

Larry I was checking some other sources such as reynold's SST and it doesn't show that kind of sig cooling. I have been awry at these daily depictions from tropicaltidbits for whatever reason they haven't been stellar with actual updates from the CPC.

Ntxw,
Could false cooling possibly be due to persistent cloudiness in Nino 1+2 being that Cowan's SST's are satellite based? I don't know as I haven't been following clouds in that area. Do you know how persistent widespread cloudiness is taken into account with satellite based SST's in general?