EPAC: ANDRES - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Up to 70kts:

EP, 01, 2015053000, , BEST, 0, 131N, 1149W, 70, 986, HU

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ANDRES EP012015 05/30/15 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 77 79 81 77 73 64 57 49 39 32 27
V (KT) LAND 70 74 77 79 81 77 73 64 57 49 39 32 27
V (KT) LGE mod 70 74 77 78 76 71 64 57 50 44 39 34 31
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 14 18 23 12 11 6 5 10 8 11 7 6 1
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -4 2 3 0 4 3 2 0 1 0 2
SHEAR DIR 350 344 341 322 298 235 249 265 276 266 272 308 257
SST (C) 29.0 28.6 28.1 27.7 27.4 26.8 26.3 26.0 25.6 25.3 24.7 24.1 24.0
POT. INT. (KT) 153 149 144 140 137 131 125 122 118 116 109 102 100
200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -50.9 -51.5 -50.4 -51.2 -50.8 -51.5 -51.4 -52.0 -52.2
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 3 3 3
700-500 MB RH 72 68 66 68 68 66 60 60 59 56 50 47 42
MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 30 32 34 33 35 34 34 34 31 28 25
850 MB ENV VOR 43 43 32 47 56 57 73 85 102 84 80 70 60
200 MB DIV 109 70 77 64 73 74 66 20 45 -10 -34 -19 -9
700-850 TADV -2 -1 1 4 7 2 5 5 8 8 7 4 1
LAND (KM) 1205 1175 1149 1128 1112 1143 1183 1243 1310 1413 1526 1646 1744
LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.7 14.2 14.8 15.3 16.1 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.3 18.8 18.9 18.8
LONG(DEG W) 114.9 115.4 115.9 116.4 116.9 118.2 119.7 121.1 122.4 124.2 126.3 127.9 129.0
STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 8 10 9 7 5
HEAT CONTENT 21 12 8 5 3 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 7. 7. 10. 10. 10. 10. 5. 2. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 11. 7. 3. -6. -13. -21. -31. -38. -43.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 05/30/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 05/30/15 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ26 KNES 300017
TCSENP

A. 01E (ANDRES)

B. 30/0000Z

C. 13.2N

D. 114.9W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AND DT=4.0 BASED ON 12/10
BANDING. MET AND PAT ALSO 4.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SWANSON

[Yellow Evan]

Dry air getting into its core again. It's hit the stratocomunlus area.

[Yellow Evan]

Not all hope is lost. Shear is lowering.

[gatorcane]

There is definitely some dry air around especially off to the northwest looking at wv imagery.

[Yellow Evan]

There is definitely some dry air around especially off to the northwest looking at wv imagery.

Agreed. Seems to be mixing it out very well, and I'm impressed with Andres.

[cycloneye]

Up to 75kts.

HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015
800 PM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

Andres is gradually intensifying. The cyclone is maintaining a
symmetric central dense overcast, consisting of plenty of
cold-topped deep convection. A 2256 UTC GPM microwave pass showed
numerous, well organized convective bands and a closed low-level
ring of convection; in addition, a warm spot has recently become
evident in infrared satellite imagery. Satellite intensity
estimates at 0000 UTC were 4.0/65 kt and 4.5/75 kt from SAB and
TAFB, respectively, and the latest ADT value from UW-CIMSS is 4.3/72
kt. Since that time, Andres' cloud pattern has increased further in
organization, and the initial intensity is raised to 75 kt.

Andres' motion has shifted toward the right or northwest, 320/06, in
response to a weakness in the subtropical ridge along 115w caused
by a shortwave trough near the Baja California peninsula. After
this feature moves eastward tomorrow, the ridge is forecast to
rebuild which should result in the track's bending toward the west-
northwest and west by 36 to 48 hours. For this forecast cycle,
there has been a notable shift in the guidance to the left through
48 hours, and the track has generally been shifted in that direction
but not as far left as the ECMWF and GFS solutions. After 48 hours,
the spread in the guidance increases, with the GFS depicting a
stronger cyclone on the northern end of the guidance envelope and
the ECMWF a weaker one on the southern edge. The official NHC
forecast track lies nearly between the two extremes, close to the
multi-model consensus (TVCE).

The intensity forecast is challenging. Despite moderate northerly
shear, the cyclone has slowly strengthened during the past 24
hours. Although this shear is forecast to persist through
tomorrow, the cyclone's inner-core structure suggests that further
intensification should occur. The official forecast exceeds the
statistical-dynamical guidance through 36 hours on the basis of
current trends and the hurricane's well organized inner core.
Although the shear should lessen in a day or two, weakening should
commence as thermodynamics in the near-storm environment gradually
become less conducive for intensification. The official NHC
intensity forecast shows steady weakening after 36 hours, very
similar to the multi-model consensus (ICON).


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 13.4N 115.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 14.2N 116.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 15.1N 117.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 15.7N 118.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 16.2N 119.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 17.4N 122.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 18.6N 125.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 19.1N 128.8W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 MAY 2015 Time : 020000 UTC
Lat : 13:21:08 N Lon : 115:03:06 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 982.9mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.5 4.5

Center Temp : -74.6C Cloud Region Temp : -78.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 72km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 27.9 degrees

[Yellow Evan]

Gotta credit Kimberlain for doing a great advisory on such a difficult case. Experience is key in storm's like these.

[Yellow Evan]

I feel like I'm talking to myself tonight, lol.

But anyhow, Andres is starting to really ramp up. Nice rings of very could cloud tops, and it's doing a very good keeping out the dry air.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

As YE alluded to, core convection continues to expand and deepen. Assuming dry air doesn't impinge on the cyclone, Andres is well on its way to Category 2 intensity.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Andres continues to intensify regardless of dry air surrounding it. It is doing very well handling this.



Synopsis on Andres and other systems: http://goo.gl/0LEZHS

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

The next step in the hurricane's development would be clearing out an eye. If/when that happens, Andres will all of a sudden have a chance to become a major hurricane after all.

[TheStormExpert]

Once again the East Pacific (A.K.A. the Hurricane Pumphouse) never fails to live up to it's name.

[Yellow Evan]

Once again the East Pacific (A.K.A. the Hurricane Pumphouse) never fails to live up to it's name.

Sometimes I feel like the EPAC it's magical and inhuman. Due to all the open water, it's like RI city.

[Yellow Evan]

ADT's on the rise.


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 MAY 2015 Time : 033000 UTC
Lat : 13:29:52 N Lon : 115:05:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 981.2mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.7 4.7

Center Temp : -73.6C Cloud Region Temp : -77.2C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 72km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 27.9 degrees

[Yellow Evan]

lol i know that feeling very well.


21:00z image

'

It's worse in the SHEM tbh. But even though the EPAc has gotten more attention than ever, lots of the normal regulares on EPAC threads seems to be busy or not on tonight.

Back on topic, Andres should be a few hours way from clearing out an eye.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Every year since 1991 with the EPac name list starting with Andres ends up being at least a warm neutral year or El Niño (1991, 1997, 2003, 2009 & 2015)

[Yellow Evan]

Every year since 1991 with the EPac name list starting with Andres ends up being at least a warm neutral year or El Niño (1991, 1997, 2003, 2009 & 2015)

1979 was also warm neutral, and 1985 was cool neutral, but El Nino-esque in some ways, and was the 3rd most active year on record.