2015 EPAC Season

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cycloneye
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Re: 2015 EPAC Season

#361 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 30, 2015 3:02 pm

What I have seen from the operational and ensemble models is a landfall favored between Cabo San Lucas and Puerto Vallarta in a weakening phase.
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#362 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat May 30, 2015 3:02 pm

Kingarabian wrote:That GFS is crazy.


Don't be surprised if it verifies.
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Re: 2015 EPAC Season

#363 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 30, 2015 3:17 pm

Looks tiny but already has a good low pressure and the models bomb this.Should be Invest 93E very soon.

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Re: 2015 EPAC Season

#364 Postby Kingarabian » Sat May 30, 2015 3:25 pm

cycloneye wrote:Looks tiny but already has a good low pressure and the models bomb this.Should be Invest 93E very soon.

Image


:uarrow: That's why the GFS bombs it. Much smaller than Andres so it should consolidate rather quickly.

Cat. 5 watch is officially on.
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Re: Re:

#365 Postby gatorcane » Sat May 30, 2015 3:25 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:That GFS is crazy.


Don't be surprised if it verifies.


I think the GFS is too strong again. It showed Andres getting down into the upper 930s MB range I believe at one point that does not seem like it will verify.

The ECMWF solution for Andres seems to be verifying so far. The strongest I see that the ECMWF has this system is 987MB (low resolution). Strong but nothing like the GFS though it does show landfall in Mexico, unlike the GFS.

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#366 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat May 30, 2015 3:29 pm

The Euro also has an atypical track for this time of year. I see no limiting factors, with a CCKW looming.
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Re: 2015 EPAC Season

#367 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 30, 2015 4:20 pm

And just like that the small area 20/80 is now INVEST 93E.
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Re: 2015 EPAC Season

#368 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun May 31, 2015 2:43 pm

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Carlos on 12z GFS

ECMWF has it too.
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#369 Postby Ntxw » Sun May 31, 2015 10:21 pm

In case anyone missed it, we have a pretty spectacular nearly cat 5 looking Andres over in the active storms thread. My goodness this basin.
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Re: 2015 EPAC Season

#370 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jun 01, 2015 10:05 pm

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12z Euro has Carlos.
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#371 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jun 01, 2015 10:17 pm

Image

So does 18z GFS.
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Re: 2015 EPAC Season

#372 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 02, 2015 6:33 pm

Here comes Carlos and the 2015 season continues to have a very fast start.

A low pressure area could form over the weekend a few hundred miles
south of the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for subsequent slow
development of the system while it moves northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

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#373 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 02, 2015 8:06 pm

Latest GFS brought that into a hurricane near Central America.
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#374 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jun 02, 2015 8:19 pm

Another big CCKW will be in the vicinity for Carlos to be.
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Re: 2015 EPAC Season

#375 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 02, 2015 11:14 pm

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0z GFS rolling out.
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#376 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jun 03, 2015 8:14 am

A low pressure area could form over the weekend a few hundred miles
south of the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for subsequent slow
development of the system while it moves north or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
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Re: 2015 EPAC Season

#377 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 03, 2015 11:38 am

12z GFS more weaker on future Carlos.
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Re: 2015 EPAC Season

#378 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Jun 03, 2015 2:59 pm

cycloneye wrote:12z GFS more weaker on future Carlos.


The interesting about the possible future Carlos is that it may need to be watched in the BOC and GOM
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Re: 2015 EPAC Season

#379 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jun 03, 2015 3:33 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
cycloneye wrote:12z GFS more weaker on future Carlos.


The interesting about the possible future Carlos is that it may need to be watched in the BOC and GOM


12z Euro has a crossover, but that's far fetched. Models do not have the ability to detect mountains. That's why they struggle neasr Hawaii.
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#380 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jun 03, 2015 4:09 pm

After Carlos:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 3m3 minutes ago Hudson, NH

Strong conv. suppressed Kelvin wave to slice through an active E. Pacific #ElNino state next week. Quite down E.Pac?

I could use a bit of a break though.
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