EPAC: ANDRES - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

31/0000 UTC 15.1N 116.6W T5.5/5.5 ANDRES -- East Pacific

Cat 3.

TXPZ26 KNES 310022
TCSENP

A. 01E (ANDRES)

B. 31/0000Z

C. 15.1N

D. 116.6W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T5.5/5.5/d1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMI

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS A WEAK EYE THAT IS JUST MEDIUM GRAY AND EMBEDDED
AND SURROUNDED BY BLACK FOR A DT=5.5. MET=5.0 BUT PAT=5.5. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

30/2215Z 15.0N 116.6W SSMI


...SWANSON

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Ugliest major hurricane I've ever seen (assuming 100kt remains to advisory time).

EP, 01, 2015053100, , BEST, 0, 150N, 1166W, 100, 962, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 25, 15, 20, 1008, 200, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ANDRES, D,

[Yellow Evan]

SAB is at T5.5.

[Yellow Evan]

Ugliest major hurricane I've ever seen (assuming 100kt remains to advisory time).

EP, 01, 2015053100, , BEST, 0, 150N, 1166W, 100, 962, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 25, 15, 20, 1008, 200, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ANDRES, D,

It's the Bertha of the EPAC.

[Kingarabian]

Ugliest major hurricane I've ever seen (assuming 100kt remains to advisory time).

EP, 01, 2015053100, , BEST, 0, 150N, 1166W, 100, 962, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 25, 15, 20, 1008, 200, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ANDRES, D,

Sometimes it's not what on the inside that counts (infrared), it's the outside (visible)

[Kingarabian]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 MAY 2015 Time : 000000 UTC
Lat : 15:00:33 N Lon : 116:37:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 954.9mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 5.8 5.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -52.7C Cloud Region Temp : -70.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 107km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 27.5 degrees

****************************************************

[Yellow Evan]

IMO this is 105, not 100 knots.

[Yellow Evan]

Really Andres is lucky the storm managed to get the black above width needed for a PT is 5.5 just in time. This has no business being a T5.5.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 MAY 2015 Time : 010000 UTC
Lat : 15:04:37 N Lon : 116:41:18 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 954.9mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 5.5 5.5

Center Temp : -54.3C Cloud Region Temp : -69.0C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 107km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 27.5 degrees

Really case for not going 100 is getting stronger tbh.

[Kingarabian]

Really Andres is lucky the storm managed to get the black above width needed for a PT is 5.5 just in time. This has no business being a T5.5.

Just need to be patient with it while it churns out all that dry air.



Super cold tops firing near that eye.

I'm thinking it could push for Cat. 4 later on before weakening begins.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

Really Andres is lucky the storm managed to get the black above width needed for a PT is 5.5 just in time. This has no business being a T5.5.

Just need to be patient with it while it churns out all that dry air.

http://i.imgur.com/1ochnpq.gif

Super cold tops firing near that eye.

I'm thinking it could push for Cat. 4 later on before it weakening begins.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm not saying it won't reach cat 4 or stay a major for a long time, but right now, it doesn't look like one. It has a chnace to get upgraded anyhow.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 MAY 2015 Time : 013000 UTC
Lat : 15:06:50 N Lon : 116:44:01 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 954.8mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 5.6 5.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -48.7C Cloud Region Temp : -68.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 107km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 27.5 degrees

[Kingarabian]

[CrazyC83]

Not sure I agree with the upgrade, unless all data is unanimous.

[Yellow Evan]

Not sure I agree with the upgrade, unless all data is unanimous.

Pretty sure it is. I'd go anywhere form 95-105 on a second thought.

[Kingarabian]

NHC must be pondering since the discussion is not 30 minutes early!

[Yellow Evan]

NHC must be pondering since the discussion is not 30 minutes early!

Can't blame them really for wondering.

[cycloneye]

No major

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.

[Yellow Evan]

Seems most reasonable case.

ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015
0300 UTC SUN MAY 31 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 116.8W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......140NE 140SE 70SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 116.8W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 116.6W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 15.6N 117.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.1N 119.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.5N 120.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 17.0N 122.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.4N 125.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 19.3N 128.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 19.3N 130.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 116.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[Yellow Evan]

01E ANDRES 150531 0000 15.0N 116.6W EPAC 100 962

Shows that ATCF data can change.