Area of Disturbed Weather in the NW Caribbean

[floridasun78]

Thank you, Floridasun78.

you welcome i got more news for you i talk to forecast from Miami weather office their told me not sure we get 10 inch rain this week their waiting for models data coming in to see if we get high amount rain

[gatorcane]

The 18Z GFS Ensembles (GEFS) are showing a bit stronger of low forming than the 12Z run. Will be interested to see if the 00Z GFS operational trends that way too:

[Dean4Storms]

It's still too early to know for sure how developed this system gets. Systems moving in tandem with the direction of the shear can still develop depending on forward surface speed vs the shear. Will be a good one to watch!

[Hammy]

Interesting to note that the system has disappeared now from the Euro as we approach the 5-6 day time frame, as it seems to do so often.

[floridasun78]

best thing say now wait and see how week go

[NDG]

The GFS has been trending drier for at least eastern central FL, keeping the heaviest rains south and east of FL, for the next 7-10 days.

[ronjon]

Yeah NDG, but pattern will reverse with a SW wind developing in the mid-levels which will steer afternoon storms toward the east coast in the pm. Hang in there, east coasters, summer rains are coming.

[gatorcane]

Yeah the models seem to be trending towards keeping the low and associated moisture east of Florida though the ECMWF still keeps a lot of moisture over Florida.

By the way the GEM has suddenly become really bullish with development in the NW Caribbean. It's good to see the GEM on board though we all know it's usually way too bullish. Has hurricane approaching the Carolinas as it turns NW:

[boca]

It looks like the rain will miss South Florida and nail the Bahamas. The GFS makes a hard right with the Caribbean system.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Has to be one of the most useless models I have ever seen. Can't believe with technology in this day and age the Canadian still continues to blow up every tstorm cell into a hurricane.

Well guess on the bright side it doesn't hasn't shown new Orleans getting pounded by a cat 5 yet or am I thinking gfs? Doesn't really matter anyway

[tropicwatch]

Looking at increased moisture in the Bay of Campeche this morning. Looks like it is being pushed eastward by the front coming off of the Texas coast. This could be a player later this week if it can maintain the moisture.

[boca]

It's just a matter of time before NWS Miami drops are rain chances for the middle of next week I'm anticipating that to happen within the next day or so,it's too bad because we are dry as a bone here in SE Florida.

[WPBWeather]

Still too soon to say what's going to happen one way or another. Didn't someone-maybe even a Pro Met- say on this blog long ago that one model run is never really the final answer.

[NDG]

12z CMC/GEM continues to entertain us.

[NDG]

Looking at increased moisture in the Bay of Campeche this morning. Looks like it is being pushed eastward by the front coming off of the Texas coast. This could be a player later this week if it can maintain the moisture.

http://tropicwatch.info/avn-animated.gif

The way I see it is a combination of this shortwave trough pushing eastward along the lower MS River valley and a tropical wave/tropical moisture surge coming across the Caribbean that may trigger the formation of a weak surface low in the NW Caribbean/Bahamas area, perhaps that moisture you pointed out at the BOC may play a roll as well.

[floridasun78]

we see how Caribbean look by tue right now their no big storm area in nw Caribbean

[floridasun78]

here is lastest from miami weather office THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE US IS FORECAST TO BRING
NORTHWARD A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA
BY MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME. HOWEVER, AT THE MOMENT THE FORECAST
IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AFTER TUESDAY REGARDING THE EXACT LOCATION
OF THIS MOISTURE...WOULD THE MOISTURE STAY EAST OF FLORIDA OR
WOULD IT AFFECT US MORE DIRECTLY? THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IT HAS
BEEN OBSERVED IN THE PAST THAT A VERY WIDESPREAD INCREASE IN
MOISTURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA HAS DECREASED THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN FAVOR OF MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY. ALSO, THE ECMWF IS NOW
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE LATEST 12Z MODEL DATA SHOWS AN INCREASE
IN CONFIDENCE WITH THE LOCATION OF THE MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH LESS MEMBERS OF THE NAEFS FORECASTING EXTREME
VALUES.

[MiamiensisWx]

Regarding the models showing a weak system east of FL: interestingly, since 1950, only two tropical cyclones have formed NE of the Bahamas (within 200 n mi of 28N 74W) in June. Both of those storms--TS Andrew (1986) and a subtropical storm in 1997--both formed when the April-May and May-June Multivariate Niño Index (MEI) was over .300. (Positive MEI values are generally correlated with Niños and negatives with Niñas.) Both storms immediately preceded a moderate to strong Niño (1986-87 and 1997-98). Currently, the MEI for April-May 2015 is likely to end up as the most negative since 1997. Even if the value decreases, the May-June value is likely to be equal to or greater than .300. Even more interestingly, since 1851, Andrew 1986 and the subtropical storm in 1997 are the only systems to actually form within 200 n mi of 28N 74W and obtain TS or greater status. Given that we are likely to see a moderate or strong Niño later this year, the coincidence is a very interesting one. So if history is any guide, 1986 and 1997 might well be good analogs for this season. Indeed, not only did both seasons feature very similar tracks, but also an absence of development in the deep tropics. Storms obtained hurricane status outside the deep tropics, and--interestingly--the sole U.S. hurricane hits occurred on the northern Gulf Coast (Bonnie 1986, Danny 1997) or along the Outer Banks (Charley 1986).

[Hammy]

Regarding the models showing a weak system east of FL: interestingly, since 1950, only two tropical cyclones have formed NE of the Bahamas (within 200 n mi of 28N 74W) in June.]

Just pointing out there were three, Arthur in 1996 formed in the same area in June.

[Alyono]

Arthur last year also formed in the area, even though it officially become a depression at 0Z July 1