EPAC: ANDRES - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Wow!

[Yellow Evan]

And there were doubts by others this system would not reach Category 2.

I never really stopped believing in this system though, and look what happened.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Andres made a big surprise when it sustained itself and intensified more. It should hold on for a few more days before it starts to weaken. It looks great now.



Synopsis on Andres and other systems: http://goo.gl/qDDxw6

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[Ntxw]

And there were doubts by others this system would not reach Category 2.

I never really stopped believing in this system though, and look what happened.

When things are favorable, it cannot be stopped period. The EPAC has been on fire and continues. A worthy first storm predecessor to 2014's Amanda.

[Yellow Evan]

And there were doubts by others this system would not reach Category 2.

I never really stopped believing in this system though, and look what happened.

When things are favorable, it cannot be stopped period. The EPAC has been on fire and continues. A worthy first storm predecessor to 2014's Amanda.

Yep, the EPAC does it AGAIN.

2015 picking up right where it left off.

[Kingarabian]

Remarkable hurricane.

Wow!

Cat. 5 looks like it's on it's way when you see that and you see that white (super cold tops) almost fully wrapping around the eye:

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Remarkable hurricane.

Wow!

Cat. 5 looks like it's on it's way when you see that and you see that white (super cold tops) almost fully wrapping around the eye:

White is "only" -70C. A general rule of thumb is a ring of -80C convection for Category 5.

[Kingarabian]

Horrifying and breathtaking:

[Kingarabian]

White is "only" -70C. A general rule of thumb is a ring of -80C convection for Category 5.

Thanks, I'm getting ahead of myself. Just comparing hurricane rick of 2009:



and Andres:



It'll be a remarkable feat if that ring closes up and -80C shoot up.

[Yellow Evan]

We need the W to truly wrap around in order for 140 to be possible.

Will it happen? Who knows.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

White is "only" -70C. A general rule of thumb is a ring of -80C convection for Category 5.

Thanks, I'm getting ahead of myself. Just comparing hurricane rick of 2009:

It'll be a remarkable feat if that ring closes up and -80C shoot up.

Actually, you were right here. I was actually thinking of the West Pacific and not the Atlantic/East Pacific. It's been a while since the last Category 5, so don't blame me.

A ring of -70C will do in the West Hemisphere if the eye is well-rounded and at least 10C (general statement here). For reference, Marie's eye peaked at 18C while it was a Category 5, whereas Amanda's peaked at 10C while it was a 135kt Category 4.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 JUN 2015 Time : 013000 UTC
Lat : 15:14:02 N Lon : 119:06:01 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 938.8mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.5 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : +6.9C Cloud Region Temp : -70.3C

[Yellow Evan]

White is "only" -70C. A general rule of thumb is a ring of -80C convection for Category 5.

Thanks, I'm getting ahead of myself. Just comparing hurricane rick of 2009:

It'll be a remarkable feat if that ring closes up and -80C shoot up.

Actually, you were right here. I was actually thinking of the West Pacific and not the Atlantic/East Pacific. It's been a while since the last Category 5, so don't blame me.

A ring of -70C will do in the West Hemisphere if the eye is well-rounded and at least 10C (general statement here). For reference, Marie's eye peaked at 18C while it was a Category 5, whereas Amanda's peaked at 10C while it was a 135kt Category 4.

Eye is 7C right now, so it's not too far off from 10C+

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015
800 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015

The rather unexpected intensification noted earlier today has
continued into this evening. Andres has a classic presentation on
satellite images, with a well-defined 15 n mi diameter eye embedded
within a symmetric mass of very deep convection. The current
intensity estimate is set at 120 kt, which is a blend of the latest
subjective and objective Dvorak analyses.

Andres continues to move slowly westward, or 270/5 kt, in a weak
steering current. Within 36 hours, the global models show a
mid-tropospheric anticyclone building in the vicinity of the Baja
California peninsula. This should cause Andres to turn toward the
west-northwest and northwest at a slightly faster forward speed.
After 72 hours, a mid-tropospheric trough is predicted to dig near
the longitude of the cyclone. Andres should be rapidly weakening by
that time, however, and will likely not respond much to the flow at
that level. Therefore the official track forecast shows only a
northeastward drift at 96-120 hours. This is similar to the
previous forecast and leans toward the ECMWF model track

Even though Andres has intensified significantly today, the
numerical intensity guidance insists on a weakening trend beginning
soon. The hurricane is likely to encounter a more stable and drier
environment in the next day or two, and sea surface temperatures
will be gradually cooling. The official intensity forecast is
close to the model consensus through 72 hours, and below it
afterwards since the cyclone is likely to be reduced to a remnant
low over quite cool waters by that time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 15.3N 119.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 15.8N 120.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 16.7N 121.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 17.7N 123.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 18.7N 124.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 20.0N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 20.5N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/0000Z 21.0N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Yellow Evan]

OH MY GOD!!!!!!!

Is this really happening?

[Kingarabian]

White is "only" -70C. A general rule of thumb is a ring of -80C convection for Category 5.

Thanks, I'm getting ahead of myself. Just comparing hurricane rick of 2009:

It'll be a remarkable feat if that ring closes up and -80C shoot up.

Actually, you were right here. I was actually thinking of the West Pacific and not the Atlantic/East Pacific. It's been a while since the last Category 5, so don't blame me.

A ring of -70C will do in the West Hemisphere if the eye is well-rounded and at least 10C (general statement here). For reference, Marie's eye peaked at 18C while it was a Category 5, whereas Amanda's peaked at 10C while it was a 135kt Category 4.

It's alright!

Rick was @ nearly 150kts without a full ring of -80C cloud tops.

[Kingarabian]

OH MY GOD!!!!!!!

Is this really happening?

LOL!!!!!!

[Hurricane Jed]

Yes, yes it is.

[Yellow Evan]

OH MY GOD!!!!!!!

Is this really happening?

LOL!!!!!!

Looks on the cusp of a 7.0.

[Kingarabian]

NHC might have to do a special advisory soon.