EPAC: BLANCA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

EP, 02, 2015060100, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1031W, 30, 1006, TD

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* TWO EP022015 06/01/15 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 42 54 68 80 90 99 107 109 100
V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 42 54 68 80 90 99 107 109 100
V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 33 34 35 40 51 64 77 88 95 95
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 31 25 16 12 11 2 4 1 2 3 13 17 21
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 -3 -8 -2 -3 1 1 6 3 8 6
SHEAR DIR 305 309 307 301 299 19 83 357 333 134 61 85 104
SST (C) 30.6 30.5 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.2 29.7 28.9
POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 166 164 163 163 166 166 165 166 166 162 154
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.4 -53.2 -52.5 -53.0 -51.8 -52.0 -51.4 -51.8 -51.3
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8
700-500 MB RH 85 86 87 85 85 83 83 81 77 77 76 76 74
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 10 10 11 14 18 22 28 34 37 39 36
850 MB ENV VOR -50 -50 -44 -33 -31 -21 12 36 48 56 57 43 29
200 MB DIV 113 111 110 96 130 84 100 94 132 128 101 104 66
700-850 TADV 3 3 2 0 -1 2 3 3 1 0 -2 -8 -1
LAND (KM) 599 582 561 546 532 560 630 675 691 683 651 599 537
LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.3 12.6 12.1 11.9 12.1 12.7 13.9 15.4
LONG(DEG W) 103.1 103.6 104.1 104.3 104.5 104.7 104.6 104.3 104.2 104.6 105.4 106.6 107.9
STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 3 2 2 3 2 0 4 7 9 10
HEAT CONTENT 89 87 86 87 88 88 88 89 89 87 82 54 24

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 32. 35. 37. 39.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. -2. -3. -1. 1. 2.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 21. 30. 38. 43. 45. 41.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 9. 8. 9. 9. 8. 4.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 24. 38. 50. 60. 69. 77. 79. 70.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022015 TWO 06/01/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 87.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 2.9 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 TWO 06/01/15 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ##

[cycloneye]

Yikes! SHIP goes to cat 3.

[Yellow Evan]

Holy crap.

[cycloneye]

Yellow Evan,do you see this one breaking records as Andres is doing? In other words I ask you,do you believe in Blanca the same as Andres?

[Yellow Evan]

Yellow Evan,do you see this one breaking records as Andres is doing? In other words I ask you,do you believe in Blanca the same as Andres?

Yes.

Wind shear and warm waters should be very low for some point in time in a few days.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
1000 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

The cloud pattern of the depression has not changed much during the
past few hours. The center, a tight swirl of low clouds, has
disappeared underneath new convective growth and a veil of cirrus
clouds. Deep convection is primarily confined to the southeastern
semicircle of the depression's circulation, indicative of strong
northwesterly shear associated with strong outflow of Hurricane
Andres. Satellite intensity estimates are T2.0 and T1.5 from TAFB
and SAB, respectively, so the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 300/04. A mid-level
ridge over Central America should give the depression a push toward
the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. An erratic motion with
a turn toward the south or south-southeast is expected between 24
and 72 hours, when the depression reaches a col area and then is
caught up in the weak flow around a mid-level anticyclone to its
west. After this time, global models show a trough arriving along
the U.S. West Coast, which causes a ridge over Baja California to
shift eastward into northern Mexico. This change in the steering
flow should result in a northwestward motion at a faster forward
speed toward the end of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast
has not changed much over the first 72 hours but is adjusted to the
right after 96 hours to be in better agreement with the multi-model
consensus (TVCE).

Moderate to strong northwesterly shear over the depression should
continue during the next 24 hours, but the shear appears to be
confined to the upper troposphere and not over a deep enough layer
to prevent slow intensification. Model guidance is unanimous in
showing the the shear diminishing to very low values by 36 to 48
hours. The more conducive upper-level winds, combined with very warm
sea surface temperatures of around 30 deg C as well as a very moist
and unstable environment, favor a substantial intensification after
48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is increased to nearly match
the SHIPS model output, at the upper end of the intensity guidance,
and shows the cyclone reaching major hurricane status in 4 days.
Some increase in easterly shear late in the period is possible, and
the intensity forecast is therefore leveled off after 96 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 12.7N 103.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 13.1N 103.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 13.4N 104.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 13.2N 104.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 12.6N 104.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 12.2N 104.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 13.5N 105.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 16.2N 107.7W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[Yellow Evan]

Also worth pointing out that this could set the record for earliest 2nd major, breaking 2014's record.

[cycloneye]

Anything is fair game on the 2015 season and what Maue says is very possible to achieve.

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue · 37m37 minutes ago
TD 02E forecast to become major hurricane Blanca by 96-hours. No reason to discount Category 5 max intensity.

[Yellow Evan]

What if somehow Andres and this both became Cat 5?

[cycloneye]

Kudos to ECMWF for being the model that showed this for the first time and then the GFS and other ones followed.

[Ntxw]

What if somehow Andres and this both became Cat 5?

May/June is the new September/Oct. At this rate we're so spoiled we'll be expecting this every year early (powerful canes) or it'll be a disappointment .

[Yellow Evan]

Kudos to ECMWF for being the model that showed this for the first time and then the GFS and other ones followed.

GFS first showed this about 2 weeks ago, before dropping it.

[TheStormExpert]

You know this potential hurricane could be at least as strong as Andres when the NHC forecast 105kts(120mph) on the 2nd advisory.

[cycloneye]

Kudos to ECMWF for being the model that showed this for the first time and then the GFS and other ones followed.

GFS first showed this about 2 weeks ago, before dropping it.

Yeah I now remember. But Euro never dropped it at all.

[Yellow Evan]

What if somehow Andres and this both became Cat 5?

May/June is the new September/Oct. At this rate we're so spoiled we'll be expecting this every year early (powerful canes) or it'll be a disappointment .

EPAC seasons seem to be getting busier earlier.

[TheStormExpert]

What if somehow Andres and this both became Cat 5?

May/June is the new September/Oct. At this rate we're so spoiled we'll be expecting this every year early (powerful canes) or it'll be a disappointment .

EPAC seasons seem to be getting busier earlier.

Makes me very curious yet concerned about what September/October could be like?

Looks like it'll be a LONG season folks!

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS so far very bullish.

[talkon]

910 mb!!!

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 JUN 2015 Time : 041500 UTC
Lat : 12:46:13 N Lon : 103:23:23 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.1 /1010.0mb/ 31.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.1 2.2 3.5

Center Temp : -85.4C Cloud Region Temp : -83.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 36.0 degrees