EPAC: ANDRES - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

To me it seems to be ADT is estimating +6.2C because its final ADT position is not stacked truly in the center.

[Yellow Evan]

To me it seems to be ADT is estimating +6.2C because its final ADT position is not stacked truly in the center.

Yea. I'd guess the eye is around 8.5C.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

0330z microwave pass:

[Yellow Evan]

Is that dry air?

[Yellow Evan]

For comparisons sake, here is Marie.

For now, Marie > Andres.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS deepens this to 934 mbar, but under-initialized since at 0z, it didn't look anything like it does now.

[cycloneye]

It will be a very interesting post season analysis that for sure will have some changes to the best track.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 JUN 2015 Time : 033000 UTC
Lat : 15:15:41 N Lon : 119:11:27 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 936.6mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : +4.2C Cloud Region Temp : -69.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 102km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.5 degrees

ADT, stop choking. Man up.

[talkon]

04:00Z images.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like a tad of dry air is getting in.

[Yellow Evan]

Center fix still off, but eye is re-warming

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 JUN 2015 Time : 040000 UTC
Lat : 15:16:33 N Lon : 119:14:08 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 936.6mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : +6.2C Cloud Region Temp : -69.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Yellow Evan]

New frame in. Dry air seems to have mixed out, and if I had to guess, the eye is warming.

[Kingarabian]

New frame in. Dry air seems to have mixed out, and if I had to guess, the eye is warming.

[img][/img]

Could be it.

[Yellow Evan]

New frame in. Dry air seems to have mixed out, and if I had to guess, the eye is warming.

[img][/img]

Could be it.

Using the Dvorak Technique, I'd get either a 6.0 or 6.5. But 2 slight tweaks, and we're at 7.0

Will Andres pull a rabbit out of its hat?

[Yellow Evan]

SST's may be increasing along it's track in a few hours for a bit, back over 28C water.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 JUN 2015 Time : 043000 UTC
Lat : 15:17:34 N Lon : 119:16:57 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 936.5mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22 km

Center Temp : +7.7C Cloud Region Temp : -69.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[talkon]

The eye is now WMG.

[Yellow Evan]

Now .5 eye get together.

[Yellow Evan]

New frame looks better.

Eye now 9.3C.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 JUN 2015 Time : 053000 UTC
Lat : 15:14:01 N Lon : 119:22:56 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 936.6mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.6 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 23 km

Center Temp : +10.9C Cloud Region Temp : -70.6C

Scene Type : EYE