EPAC: BLANCA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

01/0545 UTC 13.1N 103.5W T2.0/2.0 02E -- East Pacific

[Yellow Evan]

ATCF keeps this at 30 knts.

[Cyclenall]

Didn't look like much before that amazing burst, some poker cloud tops on this one. This could be an unique TC. I'm interested to see how explosive the intensification will get. The TCHP maps are amazing for late May, looking at previous years on the same or even later dates don't compare. There is a late July eddy hanging out down there .

What if somehow Andres and this both became Cat 5?

We're talking Atlantic 2005 levels of craziness here, absolutely beyond nuts.

910 mb!!!
*Image Cut*

What...

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
400 AM CDT MON JUN 01 2015

The tropical depression is producing a large area of deep convection
with very cold cloud tops, however, the convection does not appear
to have become significantly better organized overnight. Satellite
intensity estimates are T2.0 on the Dvorak scale and the initial
intensity is held at 30 kt. The strong northwesterly shear that is
currently affecting the tropical cyclone is forecast to decrease
significantly during the next 12 to 24 hours. This should allow
the depression to strengthen into a tropical storm later today.
By Tuesday, the cyclone is expected to be within a low shear
environment and over very warm waters. These conditions favor a
faster rate of intensification and the NHC forecast follows the
SHIPS guidance, which calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane
in about 48 hours, and obtain major hurricane status in 3 to 4
days. The intensity forecast is also supported by the global
model guidance, which significantly deepen the cyclone in 2 to 3
days.

The center has been extremely difficult to locate overnight,
so the initial motion of 305/5 is much more uncertain than normal.
Overall, little motion is forecast during the next few days
while the cyclone remains in an area of weak steering flow. After
72 hours, a mid-level ridge is forecast to strengthen over northern
Mexico. This should cause the cyclone to begin moving northwestward
at a faster forward speed. The NHC forecast is close to the
multi-model consensus and the GFS ensemble mean.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 13.3N 104.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 13.7N 104.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 13.7N 104.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 13.6N 105.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 13.4N 105.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 13.1N 105.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 14.5N 106.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 17.5N 109.5W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ27 KNES 011210
TCSENP

A. 02E (NONAME)

B. 01/1145Z

C. 12.8N

D. 103.3W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT OF 2.0 BASED ON .35 BANDING. MET IS 2.0 BASED ON
DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PT IS 2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

[cycloneye]

Hello Blanca!

EP, 02, 2015060112, , BEST, 0, 135N, 1041W, 35, 1004, TS

[euro6208]

Can it become the 7th cat 5 worldwide and the 4th cat 5 outside the WPAC and 1st for the EPAC?

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* TWO EP022015 06/01/15 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 51 58 71 83 94 104 110 111 99 87
V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 51 58 71 83 94 104 110 111 99 87
V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 45 48 56 66 78 90 101 108 104 89
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 20 13 9 7 4 1 3 5 8 15 20 21 19
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -5 -1 0 0 1 -1 -2 3 5 5 10
SHEAR DIR 300 299 296 306 342 299 215 197 140 81 91 83 96
SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.0 29.6 28.6 27.0
POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 164 163 163 163 163 162 164 164 161 150 134
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.1 -52.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.0 -51.6 -51.1 -51.8
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 7 7 6
700-500 MB RH 88 87 86 84 84 83 82 76 72 70 70 72 66
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 11 13 15 18 23 29 36 40 40 35 32
850 MB ENV VOR -32 -24 -22 -18 -13 10 30 41 59 75 52 38 45
200 MB DIV 112 100 127 124 101 117 104 110 135 111 84 81 14
700-850 TADV 2 1 0 -1 0 1 4 1 0 -1 -4 -3 0
LAND (KM) 519 516 515 524 533 552 592 606 606 577 521 486 512
LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.7 13.6 13.5 13.2 13.1 13.2 13.9 15.2 16.7 18.2
LONG(DEG W) 104.1 104.4 104.6 104.7 104.8 105.0 105.2 105.3 105.5 106.2 107.3 108.6 110.0
STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 1 1 1 1 0 3 7 9 10 10
HEAT CONTENT 85 87 87 87 87 86 86 84 82 64 29 15 15

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 744 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 33.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -7. -5. -4. -3.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 12. 19. 29. 38. 43. 46. 38. 32.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 9. 7. 8. 8. 6. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 16. 23. 36. 48. 59. 69. 75. 76. 64. 53.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022015 TWO 06/01/15 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 86.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 88% is 6.7 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 74% is 8.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 60% is 10.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 58% is 13.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 TWO 06/01/15 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 JUN 2015 Time : 114500 UTC
Lat : 13:27:30 N Lon : 104:11:53 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1003.0mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.0 4.4

Center Temp : -81.0C Cloud Region Temp : -81.0C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

[Ntxw]

Should be fun to track Blanca, ets hope it steers away from Mexico. This little area south of the Mexican coast is notorious for big EPAC storms.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 01 2015

The convective pattern of the cyclone features a developing central
dense overcast and an expansive convective band to the east and
southeast of the center. Based on the latest Dvorak classification
of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB, the cyclone is upgraded to Tropical Storm
Blanca on this advisory. The SHIPS model and satellite analysis
from UW-CIMSS show about 20 kt of shear currently affecting Blanca.
However, the models show the shear quickly relaxing during the next
12 to 24 hours, which should allow Blanca to take advantage of an
otherwise favorable environment. As a result, steady if not rapid
intensification is expected to begin soon. In fact, the SHIPS RI
index shows a 74hance of a 30-kt increase in the next 24 hours.
The official forecast follows this trend and shows a quicker rate of
intensification than the previous one through 48 hours. Additional
strengthening is expected later in the forecast period. The new NHC
forecast is close to the more aggressive SHIPS model and is well
above the IVCN intensity consensus.

Microwave imagery from AMSR2 on GCOM-W1 at 0743Z and from the GPM
satellite at 1031Z were helpful in establishing the initial
position, which is just a little to the right of the previous
advisory. The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged. A slow
northwestward or west-northwestward motion is expected today,
followed by a slow erratic motion through 72 hours as the steering
flow weakens. Late in the period, a ridge will amplify over
northern Mexico which should result in a steadier motion toward the
northwest at days 4 and 5. The new NHC track is a little to the
right of the previous one after an adjustment toward the latest TVCE
multi-model consensus.

Blanca is expected to remain well offshore of the southwestern coast
of Mexico through the forecast period. However, some rainbands on
the outer periphery of the circulation could affect portions of the
coast during the next couple of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 13.5N 104.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 13.8N 104.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 13.8N 104.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 13.6N 105.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 13.4N 105.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 13.4N 105.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 15.5N 107.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 18.5N 110.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[Hurricane Jed]

Looks like they are going with a peak of 125mph for now.....

[Yellow Evan]

At this point, I'd be surprised if it doesn't reach at least 130 knots.

[cycloneye]

But different from Andres that had ample open waters to do what he did,Blanca doesn't have that kind of window,unless it does a great RI like a Ivan or Wilma type.

[Yellow Evan]

But different from Andres that had ample open waters to do what he did,Blanca doesn't have that kind of window,unless it does a great RI like a Ivan or Wilma type.

It does IMO since it is far from land.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Having a hard time believing Blanca is still a low-end tropical storm.

[cycloneye]

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue · 11m11 minutes ago
GFS 12z deepens #Blanca by 75 mb in 48-hours down to 918 mb (Cat 5 likely) off Mexican coast in East Pacific

[Yellow Evan]

48 hours!!!!! Wow.

[Yellow Evan]

ADT is at 3.6 and raw is 4.3.

[galaxy401]

Very cold cloud tops there. Will not be surprised to see RI from this system especially after Andres moves away.