
EPAC: ANDRES - Post-Tropical
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: Re:
Kingarabian wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:I guess it's legit. Wonder if this gets thrown out or not.
01/0600 UTC 15.4N 119.5W T6.0/6.0 ANDRES -- East Pacific
Even if they were not sure about the convection, microwave imagery showed a completed strong eyewall earlier.
Based on appearance, it's probs 135 knots.
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 JUN 2015 Time : 060000 UTC
Lat : 15:21:26 N Lon : 119:26:05 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 936.5mb/127.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.6 6.6
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km
Center Temp : +11.3C Cloud Region Temp : -70.8C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 102km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb
Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.4 degrees
****************************************************
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 JUN 2015 Time : 060000 UTC
Lat : 15:21:26 N Lon : 119:26:05 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 936.5mb/127.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.6 6.6
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km
Center Temp : +11.3C Cloud Region Temp : -70.8C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 102km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb
Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.4 degrees
****************************************************
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- Yellow Evan
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Re:
Yellow Evan wrote:NHC taking their time on the ATCF.
Wonder if they're debating on whether to toss out SAB.
TAFB isn't out as well.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: Re:
Kingarabian wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:NHC taking their time on the ATCF.
Wonder if they're debating on whether to toss out SAB.
TAFB isn't out as well.
That could be why.
This whole thing is messed up.
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Re: Re:
Yellow Evan wrote:Kingarabian wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:NHC taking their time on the ATCF.
Wonder if they're debating on whether to toss out SAB.
TAFB isn't out as well.
That could be why.
This whole thing is messed up.
The MINIMUM has to be 135kts. Higher than both ADT and SAB.
This is Celia 2010

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Re: Re:
Kingarabian wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:Kingarabian wrote:
TAFB isn't out as well.
That could be why.
This whole thing is messed up.
The MINIMUM has to be 135kts. Higher than both ADT and SAB.
Appearance and what the data supports do not go hand and hand always.
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Re:
Yellow Evan wrote:Regarding Celia, the white band ring is much larger than Andres.
But that's because Celia was a different, annular cane'. Each storm is different with different wind spans/radii. Compact storms usually have consolidated, smaller convection fields yet strong output nonetheless.

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Re: Re:
Kingarabian wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:Regarding Celia, the white band ring is much larger than Andres.
But that's because Celia was a different, annular cane'. Each storm is different with different wind spans/radii. Compact storms usually have consolidated, smaller convection fields yet strong output nonetheless.
I agree with you, but Dvorak does not work that way.
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Re: Re:
Kingarabian wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:Regarding Celia, the white band ring is much larger than Andres.
But that's because Celia was a different, annular cane'. Each storm is different with different wind spans/radii. Compact storms usually have consolidated, smaller convection fields yet strong output nonetheless.
Celia wasn't even close to annular lol
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Re: Re:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Kingarabian wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:Regarding Celia, the white band ring is much larger than Andres.
But that's because Celia was a different, annular cane'. Each storm is different with different wind spans/radii. Compact storms usually have consolidated, smaller convection fields yet strong output nonetheless.
[img][/img]
Celia wasn't even close to annular lol

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- Kingarabian
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Re:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote::uarrow: Actually annular storms not only have lack of banding and excellent symmetry, but you would also need a "donut tire" look in the eye
They can have clear eyes.
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