Area of Disturbed Weather in the NW Caribbean

[gatorcane]

The GFS and the GEFS (ensembles) continue to show development at least into some kind of subtropical system perhaps once the area gets into the Bahamas just east of Florida while moving the system off to the NE. The GEM is stronger and more to the left.

So the GEM and GFS are on board with development. The NW Caribbean should continue to increase in convection over the next 24-48 hours as a trough of low pressure begins to form there. The entire area looks to be moistening as a tropical wave heads towards that area of the Caribbean and a trough moves into the Western Gulf of Mexico towards the NW Caribbean.

Saved water vapor loop:


Also the 12Z FIM-9 model (based on NCEP data, same as GFS), has a pretty decent system cranking up and moving north paralleling the eastern seaboard of the United States, 168 hour position below:

[TheStormExpert]

gatorcane, you talking a potential named storm?

[floridasun78]

:uarrow: gatorcane, you talking a potential named storm?

my think too early to say we need wait see what model show on mon and tue what setup we have nw Caribbean and Bahamas area

[mobilebay]

Hi everyone. Have not been on in a while. This area will be fun to watch over the next few days

[HURRICANELONNY]

ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON IS HERE! WOW TIME FLIES!

[gatorcane]

:uarrow: gatorcane, you talking a potential named storm?

my think too early to say we need wait see what model show on mon and tue what setup we have nw Caribbean and Bahamas area

I think there is a decent chance of a named storm out of this as it lifts out NE from the Bahamas and away from Florida, possibly by this weekend.

I am actually a little surprised the NHC has not mentioned it in their 5-day outlook but development looks to start right around day 5 looking at the models so we are on the edge.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS has a tropical storm in the Bahamas by day 5 moving NE away from Florida. Development is looking more and more like a possibility once the area gets into the Bahamas.

Down to 1001MB by hour 138.

[Kohlecane]

The CMC/Gem goes a little crazy with this thing .. has a well defined Low at about 100 hours out and then a monster Hurricane 140 hrs out and brings it along the Carolinas and off OBX...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=137

[psyclone]

over time it seems as if the potential for this disturbed weather to impact florida with much needed rain is decreasing.

[boca]

I agree and we can't seem to get much needed rain here on the east coast its way too dry.

[gatorcane]

Latest saved loop with convection increasing over the NW Caribbean (it's hard not to look at the size of Blanca in the EPAC ):

[wxman57]

I notice that over the past 2-3 runs, the GFS has stopped developing the 1st low that moves out of the NW Caribbean on Thursday and is now developing a second low that moves out of the NW Caribbean on Saturday. The 12Z Euro has the same weak low moving out of the NW Caribbean on Thursday but it never gets beyond a very weak and disorganized area of low pressure. No second low indicated in the 12z Euro.

Definitely an area to watch, and I think there may be a good chance of a TD forming NE of the Bahamas late this week. Probably no significant U.S. threat.

[OuterBanker]

Gatorcane, I assume it's the latest blob traversing the Yucatan channel that you are referring to. GFS doesn't do much with it before taking it OTS, Euro doesn't see it still. The Canadian is to be used for entertainment purposes only, but it is interesting.

[gatorcane]

Outerbanker, the GFS develops into a storm by this weekend over the Bahamas and sends it NE away from the United States, 126 hours below. GEM and NAVGEM show development also so there is pretty good model support.

This may be a case where the ECMWF is just missing the system, as good as that model is as we can see a big ramp-up of convection underway in the NW Caribbean today, like the GFS and GEM have predicted.

Do note the ECMWF is not really that good with forecasting genesis in the first place.

[Hammy]

Usually if something develops, the Euro will show it at the 10 day point, then show it weaker, and then as it gets to the 3-4 day mark (which we're now nearing) it shows it again. In this case it's showing literally nothing, and until it shows some form of lowered pressures there I'm going to remain skeptical of development.

[sunnyday]

And just a few days ago, So Fla was in for a possible 3 to 10 inches of rain. This happens every year. Why do I fall for it? lol

[Hammy]

And just a few days ago, So Fla was in for a possible 3 to 10 inches of rain. This happens every year. Why do I fall for it? lol

One year it'll happen, but watch the models show nothing until a day or two beforehand when it does.

[boca]

South Florida must have a shield over it to deflect any type of rain that we might get.I say they might lower the rain chances to 20 percent by wed/thurs time frame.This is just an opinion.

[jlauderdal]

And just a few days ago, So Fla was in for a possible 3 to 10 inches of rain. This happens every year. Why do I fall for it? lol

watch the euro, stay away from the gfs outside 72H...gfs needs a tropical win before it is to be taken seriously

[TheStormExpert]

And just a few days ago, So Fla was in for a possible 3 to 10 inches of rain. This happens every year. Why do I fall for it? lol

watch the euro, stay away from the gfs outside 72H...gfs needs a tropical win before it is to be taken seriously

It got Ana right about 2 weeks out, but that is FAR from enough for it to earn it's full trust back it once had.