2015 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[Patrick99]

la nina and we have an east coast trof. el nino and we have an east coast trof. el neutral and we have an east coast trof. sick to death of it.

I can remember quite a few times during the peak of hurricane season over the last decade, when we had east coast ridges. Thing is, rarely were there any storms under those ridges moving westward. I don't know that the *pattern* of ridging has been all that rare, but rather, the lack of actual storms at the times that pattern has been in place.

[ninel conde]

la nina and we have an east coast trof. el nino and we have an east coast trof. el neutral and we have an east coast trof. sick to death of it.

I can remember quite a few times during the peak of hurricane season over the last decade, when we had east coast ridges. Thing is, rarely were there any storms under those ridges moving westward. I don't know that the *pattern* of ridging has been all that rare, but rather, the lack of actual storms at the times that pattern has been in place.

no, it is well established that the pattern the last 10 years is east coast trof. what you are referring to is weak transient highs between fronts.

[NDG]

Perhaps the last 4-5 years have been east coast troughs, 2007 & 2008 were nothing close to the last few years.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Not sure about 10 years ago, my memory doesn't go back that far related to weather patterns but like ndg said last five have been east coast troughs for sure.

Anyway won't matter much for this season cause all we will have to watch is 6-7 sheared weak tropical systems

[WPBWeather]

Not sure about 10 years ago, my memory doesn't go back that far related to weather patterns but like ndg said last five have been east coast troughs for sure.

Anyway won't matter much for this season cause all we will have to watch is 6-7 sheared weak tropical systems

The tropical Atlantic is not through, my friend. No one saw 2004/05 coming--no one. With these storms in the Pacific, one dip in the jet stream and then who knows what happens in the Atlantic. Certainly no one on this blog.

[ninel conde]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=180hr

same pattern as last 10 years. low pressure locked and loaded over new england and nw atlantic. NOTHING will threaten the US with this pattern.

[TheStormExpert]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2015060618&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=180hr

same pattern as last 10 years. low pressure locked and loaded over new england and nw atlantic. NOTHING will threaten the US with this pattern.

Yep. No surprise here, figured that East Coast ridging would only last a month. I swear Global Warming has a big role in this persistently stubborn pattern we've been in for SO LONG.

[ninel conde]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2015060618&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=180hr

same pattern as last 10 years. low pressure locked and loaded over new england and nw atlantic. NOTHING will threaten the US with this pattern.

Yep. No surprise here, figured that East Coast ridging would only last a month. I swear Global Warming has a big role in this persistently stubborn pattern we've been in for SO LONG.

im beginning to wonder if this pattern will be permanent. IM also wondering if the bermuda high is just a myth from ancient times. unless this changes people talking about drought relief in CA this winter can forget it. we may need to find a new weather hobby soon, instead of hurricanes. Perhaps, we can have a bermuda LOW, club, lol

[WPBWeather]

Well, if there are truly going to be no more Atl hurricanes to bother about, that would be quite a story!

[Alyono]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2015060618&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=180hr

same pattern as last 10 years. low pressure locked and loaded over new england and nw atlantic. NOTHING will threaten the US with this pattern.

Yep. No surprise here, figured that East Coast ridging would only last a month. I swear Global Warming has a big role in this persistently stubborn pattern we've been in for SO LONG.

im beginning to wonder if this pattern will be permanent. IM also wondering if the bermuda high is just a myth from ancient times. unless this changes people talking about drought relief in CA this winter can forget it. we may need to find a new weather hobby soon, instead of hurricanes. Perhaps, we can have a bermuda LOW, club, lol

complaining after we have a tropical storm strike the East Coast already...

[Andrew92]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2015060618&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=180hr

same pattern as last 10 years. low pressure locked and loaded over new england and nw atlantic. NOTHING will threaten the US with this pattern.

Yep. No surprise here, figured that East Coast ridging would only last a month. I swear Global Warming has a big role in this persistently stubborn pattern we've been in for SO LONG.

im beginning to wonder if this pattern will be permanent. IM also wondering if the bermuda high is just a myth from ancient times. unless this changes people talking about drought relief in CA this winter can forget it. we may need to find a new weather hobby soon, instead of hurricanes. Perhaps, we can have a bermuda LOW, club, lol

El Nino years generally produce quiet hurricane seasons in the Atlantic. The years immediately after El Nino years see things begin to heat up, with the second year after has in the satellite era produced at least one (potentially) destructive US landfalling hurricane every single time.

Let's get through this year and, at minimum, next year (though preferably 2017) before beginning to say that the Atlantic quieting down is permanent.

And let's not forget, the East Coast has had a tropical storm already this year, and that it only takes one bad storm to make a season. Do you think residents of Galveston or Houston think 1983 was a quiet season? Or do residents of South Florida regard 1992 as inactive? I'm just going to guess, probably not.

-Andrew92

[Hammy]

Less than a weak into hurricane season (and after having had a storm in early May) I see the season cancel posts are in full swing.

It's probably safe to say June will be quiet though, when even the Euro is producing strong phantom storms. Perhaps the upgrade was a bad idea.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

ninel conde,
Don't ignore Ana

[SETXWXLADY]

From what I've seen lately, this pattern, the last month or so, seems completely different than the last few years? Could be wrong.

As far as slow or El Nino seasons, I'm not sure on the strength or timing of the El Ninos, but as is often repeated, it only takes one. In my personal experience, I am not from around here. I knew nothing about weather. But my first evacuation was 1992 for Andrew. He did not hit here. Second was 10 years later. For Lili, 2002. She did not hit here either but tracked all the way through the Caribbean from the Atlantic, hit the Caymans, Jamaica and Cuba, I believe as a hurricane. Then strengthened into a cat 4 in the gulf before weakening and hitting Louisiana. I've since learned about other hurricanes such as the 1983 Alicia. That came awfully close to here. And of course Audrey that took nearly Rita's identical track. Though not El Nino or slow years, My 3rd evac was 2005 from Rita. 4th from Gustav. 5th from Ike. 5 evacuations 2 times I was very glad I did. Never regretted a single one of them.

I've tried to learn a bit about tropical weather since 2008. And I hope this is not too off topic. From what I can tell, hurricanes can hit anyone in the basin regardless of ENSO. Regardless of NAO. Total number of storms. Or the month for that matter. So, I wouldn't write this season off just yet. If no other storms hit in the Atlantic basin this year, then we can all count ourselves lucky, learn from it, and prepare for next year. Ok, done droning on now.

[Cyclenall]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2015060618&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=180hr

same pattern as last 10 years. low pressure locked and loaded over new england and nw atlantic. NOTHING will threaten the US with this pattern.

Yep. No surprise here, figured that East Coast ridging would only last a month. I swear Global Warming has a big role in this persistently stubborn pattern we've been in for SO LONG.

I'm more concerned about the state of the PDO and what its doing here than GW, while this is mostly talking about the Bermuda High and the East Coast trough, this is also part of my local weather and the effect it has on it.

im beginning to wonder if this pattern will be permanent. IM also wondering if the bermuda high is just a myth from ancient times. unless this changes people talking about drought relief in CA this winter can forget it. we may need to find a new weather hobby soon, instead of hurricanes. Perhaps, we can have a bermuda LOW, club, lol

While I'm already checked out on tracking any Atlantic or Epac systems that are not unique (Blanca was pretty unique and interesting so I tracked that), this may be shifting to weather as a whole which as my lifelong passion and hobby is painful. I cannot stand this garbage pattern at all, its just becoming too boring and having a negative effect on my general mood which normally is high during the month of June. This is different from other periods that have been less warm/active, I don't know but its awful. Fine if there are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, just don't pair that with cold rain during the summer and no notable events anywhere...that's ghastly.

Well, if there are truly going to be no more Atl hurricanes to bother about, that would be quite a story!

Key message, lack of INTERESTING tropical cyclones. We're going on years now of that and that is quite the story.

ninel conde,
Don't ignore Ana

Ana may as well have never existed in my mind, just like the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season. If it means 18 named storms in the Atlantic that are of 2013 and 2014's offerings, its meaningless.

[vbhoutex]

From what I've seen lately, this pattern, the last month or so, seems completely different than the last few years? Could be wrong.

As far as slow or El Nino seasons, I'm not sure on the strength or timing of the El Ninos, but as is often repeated, it only takes one. In my personal experience, I am not from around here. I knew nothing about weather. But my first evacuation was 1992 for Andrew. He did not hit here. Second was 10 years later. For Lili, 2002. She did not hit here either but tracked all the way through the Caribbean from the Atlantic, hit the Caymans, Jamaica and Cuba, I believe as a hurricane. Then strengthened into a cat 4 in the gulf before weakening and hitting Louisiana. I've since learned about other hurricanes such as the 1983 Alicia. That came awfully close to here. And of course Audrey that took nearly Rita's identical track. Though not El Nino or slow years, My 3rd evac was 2005 from Rita. 4th from Gustav. 5th from Ike. 5 evacuations 2 times I was very glad I did. Never regretted a single one of them.

I've tried to learn a bit about tropical weather since 2008. And I hope this is not too off topic. From what I can tell, hurricanes can hit anyone in the basin regardless of ENSO. Regardless of NAO. Total number of storms. Or the month for that matter. So, I wouldn't write this season off just yet. If no other storms hit in the Atlantic basin this year, then we can all count ourselves lucky, learn from it, and prepare for next year. Ok, done droning on now.

One of the best postings I have seen in a long time!!

Everyone needs to remember what we are here for as a site and as members of this site and as human beings. We are weather hobbyists, weather geeks, professional meteorologists, meteorology students, etc. We are all here to learn, to help others and to discuss the weather since it is our passion.

[Ntxw]

Looking at guidance shear looks to be very high across the Caribbean, in some cases 60-80kts at times. Any meaningful development will be from waves able to reach 25N and above if conditions are right it will take some time though.

[Kingarabian]

From what I've seen lately, this pattern, the last month or so, seems completely different than the last few years? Could be wrong.

As far as slow or El Nino seasons, I'm not sure on the strength or timing of the El Ninos, but as is often repeated, it only takes one. In my personal experience, I am not from around here. I knew nothing about weather. But my first evacuation was 1992 for Andrew. He did not hit here. Second was 10 years later. For Lili, 2002. She did not hit here either but tracked all the way through the Caribbean from the Atlantic, hit the Caymans, Jamaica and Cuba, I believe as a hurricane. Then strengthened into a cat 4 in the gulf before weakening and hitting Louisiana. I've since learned about other hurricanes such as the 1983 Alicia. That came awfully close to here. And of course Audrey that took nearly Rita's identical track. Though not El Nino or slow years, My 3rd evac was 2005 from Rita. 4th from Gustav. 5th from Ike. 5 evacuations 2 times I was very glad I did. Never regretted a single one of them.

I've tried to learn a bit about tropical weather since 2008. And I hope this is not too off topic. From what I can tell, hurricanes can hit anyone in the basin regardless of ENSO. Regardless of NAO. Total number of storms. Or the month for that matter. So, I wouldn't write this season off just yet. If no other storms hit in the Atlantic basin this year, then we can all count ourselves lucky, learn from it, and prepare for next year. Ok, done droning on now.

One of the best postings I have seen in a long time!!

Everyone needs to remember what we are here for as a site and as members of this site and as human beings. We are weather hobbyists, weather geeks, professional meteorologists, meteorology students, etc. We are all here to learn, to help others and to discuss the weather since it is our passion.

Agree 100%! It's a treasure that we get to be around real meteorologists who teach us, correct us, and allow us to learn.

[gatorcane]

The presence of strong Eastern North America ridging continues into June. This is one big difference from years past at this time where we have generally seen a semi-permanent trough hanging along the Eastern Seaboard of the United States that continues through the summer and into the peak of the hurricane season allowing storm after storm to recurve out in the open Atlantic. Along with this trough, we have seen a "Texas death ridge" the past several years causing record heat along with very dry conditions and blocking any systems from moving into Texas from the Gulf. Not so this year. Is this an early indicator?

In fact check out the GFS 700MB flow pattern. We see some signs the ridging in the Western Atlantic is connecting with ridging over the Eastern Atlantic which certainly would be a blocking pattern for hurricanes that form in the MDR.

[Yellow Evan]

One problem is that we may not have any hurricanes in the MDR.