EPAC: BLANCA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Rightward shifts are very typical of storms in this part of the world when they start to intensify.

[Andrew92]

Dear Blanca,

We know what storms like you are capable of. I also have enough mosquito bites to last me all summer. Although we like a nice good rain here every now and then because it is so dry here, let me say, you aren't welcome in Arizona!

Signed,

-Andrew92

[Yellow Evan]

It's welcome in Nevada, as long as it doesn't fall all at once.

[cycloneye]

The NHC director just tweeted this.

Dr. Rick Knabb ‏@NHCDirector · 8m8 minutes ago
#Blanca is more than 3 weeks ahead of average date of 2nd named storm in east Pac:

[Yellow Evan]

The NHC director just tweeted this.

Dr. Rick Knabb ‏@NHCDirector · 8m8 minutes ago
#Blanca is more than 3 weeks ahead of average date of 2nd named storm in east Pac:

Eh, it's hard to calculate averages for early seaosn storms.

[Kingarabian]

Thinking we have Rick 2009's rival, right in front of us.

[Yellow Evan]

Thinking we have Rick 2009's rival, right in front of us.

Possibly. But Rick was late season.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
1000 PM CDT MON JUN 01 2015

Blanca is gradually intensifying. Satellite imagery shows the
cyclone maintaining a small CDO dominated by very cold-topped deep
convection, with a vigorous primary band over the southeastern
portion of the circulation. Microwave satellite data, however,
indicate that Blanca's developing inner core currently lacks much
organization. Regardless, anticyclonic flow over Blanca is also
expanding and becoming better established, indicative of a
continued decrease in shear. A blend of Dvorak intensity estimates
is used to set the initial intensity to 45 kt.

Blanca has been meandering southward, but the overall motion is
essentially stationary. The cyclone should remain trapped in a
col area during the next 36 hours, but there should be just enough
northerly or north-northwesterly flow to nudge the center of Blanca
on a general southerly course. By 72 hours, the synoptic steering
over the eastern Pacific should change as an unusually deep longwave
trough settles into southern California and weak mid-level ridging
near Baja California shifts eastward and strengthens. This pattern
should cause Blanca to accelerate on a heading between northwest and
north-northwest beginning on Thursday. Only small adjustments were
made to the NHC track forecast during the first 36-48 hours, but
the track has been shifted to the right of the previous one between
72-120 hours, which is close to the multi-model consensus (TVCE).

Northwesterly shear affecting the cyclone is forecast to decrease
considerably within 24 hours and remain low for a couple of days
after that, while thermodynamic parameters in the near-storm
environment should be exceptionally conducive for rapid
intensification. An eastward-traveling upper-level shortwave trough
moving through Mexico in 48-72 hours could also enhance Blanca's
outflow, increasing the likelihood of a significant deepening during
this time. Late in the forecast period, east-southeasterly shear
and cooler waters should result in weakening, especially by day 5.
The NHC intensity forecast is increased above the previous one and
is closest to the FSU Superensemble and SHIPS model output, and well
above the weaker regional model solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 13.2N 104.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 13.0N 104.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 12.9N 104.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 12.7N 104.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 12.7N 104.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 14.5N 105.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 16.9N 107.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 20.1N 108.8W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[Hurricane Jed]

120kt peak forecast. Impressive.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS

[Yellow Evan]

12z Euro

[Hurricane Jed]

Quite the difference there

[Yellow Evan]

Quite the difference there

ECMWF is much lower res than the GFS.

[Hurricane Jed]

I don't really have much experience with models.

[Hurricane Jed]

Seems the link for Blanca is down on the SSD website.

[Yellow Evan]

913.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

A 913mb Hurricane would be insane for June, even for the Eastern Pacific.

[Siker]

A 913mb Hurricane would be insane for June, even for the Eastern Pacific.

Heck, it would be insane for any time of year. 913mb would tie it as the 3rd strongest hurricane ever recorded in the EPAC by pressure.

[Yellow Evan]

Worth noting that we don't have good pressure records pre-1988ish.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Important to note tho: The GFS predicted a sub-870 mb cyclone PAM which only turned out to be 896 mb and showed 880 mb for STY DOLPHIN which only went 918 mb But they went well with Andres so let's see