ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Dean_175]

Anyone have a graphic of the PDF Corrected CFSv2 for nino3.4? Last I saw a plot of the corrected CFS, it was over 2.0C. But at that time, the raw CFS ensemble mean was over 3.0C. Now it is under 2.5C and am now wondering what the PDF corrected CFS is showing.

[Kingarabian]

Ntxw,
Could false cooling possibly be due to persistent cloudiness in Nino 1+2 being that Cowan's SST's are satellite based? I don't know as I haven't been following clouds in that area. Do you know how persistent widespread cloudiness is taken into account with satellite based SST's in general?

If cloudiness is the explanation for the abrupt drop, what is the explanations for the abrupt (false) increases we would see in prior years?

[LarryWx]

Ntxw,
Could false cooling possibly be due to persistent cloudiness in Nino 1+2 being that Cowan's SST's are satellite based? I don't know as I haven't been following clouds in that area. Do you know how persistent widespread cloudiness is taken into account with satellite based SST's in general?

If cloudiness is the explanation for the abrupt drop, what is the explanations for the abrupt (false) increases we would see in prior years?

King,
Great question. I have no idea. I remember Oct. 2012's abrupt false increase!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Strengthening Downwelling KW and warm pool

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Regions this week

Nino 3.4 this week will be 1.3C, meaning El Nino now on par intensity-wise with (or close to) the 2006-07 event

[cycloneye]

Preliminary data shows Nino 1+2 has not fallen like a rock but leveled off.Nino 3.4 up to +1.3C.Text of weekly update later this morning.

[cycloneye]

Text of CPC weekly update.Nino 1+2 is not crashing as is at +2.6C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[Hurricaneman]

Levi Cowan's site seems to be having data issues so I wouldn't use it to gauge el Nino right now I would use the official sites

[cycloneye]

Levi Cowan's site seems to be having data issues so I wouldn't use it to gauge el Nino right now I would use the official sites

Yes,is better to stick with the official sites at this time.

[Ntxw]

1.3C centered on the last week of May. Even 1997 can't boast that..

[NDG]

I'm still waiting for the Nat'l Media to start mentioning El Nino other than the recent mention of NOAA's hurricane season forecast in which some local TV stations mentioned "El Nino formation likely to...".
Heck, I was watching CBS evening news, some scientist is blaming the TX floods to stagnant wx patterns because of Polar warming the jet stream is not moving wx patterns across the world, not one mention by this report of the current El Nino going in the Equatorial Pacific, they also said "no relief in sight for California" lol.

[Ntxw]

I'm still waiting for the Nat'l Media to start mentioning El Nino other than the recent mention of NOAA's hurricane season forecast in which some local TV stations mentioned "El Nino formation likely to...".
Heck, I was watching CBS evening news, some scientist is blaming the TX floods to stagnant wx patterns because of Polar warming the jet stream is not moving wx patterns across the world, not one mention by this report of the current El Nino going in the Equatorial Pacific, they also said "no relief in sight for California" lol.

That's funny, because El Nino and La Nina are extremes of weather deviating from normal. The more they are the more extreme events we get. El Nino is controlling the weather in the tropics, subtropics, and even forms of blocking up in the Arctic. The fact that the weather is so unusual in places is quite usual for strong ENSO events. The weather pattern across Texas and Oklahoma has been nothing out of the ordinary, the only difference is the subtropical jet has streamed up moisture endlessly in the same fetch that has created Andres and Blanca in the EPAC.

[gigabite]

ONI el Nino mean duration for event starts in the September, October, and November is 5.8 periods
ONI el Nino mean duration for the last 65 years is 10.2 periods

[NDG]

I'm still waiting for the Nat'l Media to start mentioning El Nino other than the recent mention of NOAA's hurricane season forecast in which some local TV stations mentioned "El Nino formation likely to...".
Heck, I was watching CBS evening news, some scientist is blaming the TX floods to stagnant wx patterns because of Polar warming the jet stream is not moving wx patterns across the world, not one mention by this report of the current El Nino going in the Equatorial Pacific, they also said "no relief in sight for California" lol.

That's funny, because El Nino and La Nina are extremes of weather deviating from normal. The more they are the more extreme events we get. El Nino is controlling the weather in the tropics, subtropics, and even forms of blocking up in the Arctic. The fact that the weather is so unusual in places is quite usual for strong ENSO events. The weather pattern across Texas and Oklahoma has been nothing out of the ordinary, the only difference is the subtropical jet has streamed up moisture endlessly in the same fetch that has created Andres and Blanca in the EPAC.

Here is the link to the story aired on CBS evening news yesterday.
Not saying that the Rutgers University Study does not have any credibility but with the reporter not touching the current El Niño subject it looses credibility, IMO.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/whats-behin ... -in-india/

[Brent]

I'm still waiting for the Nat'l Media to start mentioning El Nino other than the recent mention of NOAA's hurricane season forecast in which some local TV stations mentioned "El Nino formation likely to...".
Heck, I was watching CBS evening news, some scientist is blaming the TX floods to stagnant wx patterns because of Polar warming the jet stream is not moving wx patterns across the world, not one mention by this report of the current El Nino going in the Equatorial Pacific, they also said "no relief in sight for California" lol.

That's funny, because El Nino and La Nina are extremes of weather deviating from normal. The more they are the more extreme events we get. El Nino is controlling the weather in the tropics, subtropics, and even forms of blocking up in the Arctic. The fact that the weather is so unusual in places is quite usual for strong ENSO events. The weather pattern across Texas and Oklahoma has been nothing out of the ordinary, the only difference is the subtropical jet has streamed up moisture endlessly in the same fetch that has created Andres and Blanca in the EPAC.

Here is the link to the story aired on CBS evening news yesterday.
Not saying that the Rutgers University Study does not have any credibility but with the reporter not touching the current El Niño subject it looses credibility, IMO.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/whats-behin ... -in-india/

I was facepalming all through that story... they act like it's unheard of to get extreme severe weather in May. Hello... it's May.

[Ntxw]

Strong WWB over the eastern areas of the Pacific mainly over 3 and 1+2. We're going to see this area warm quickly soon while steady over in 3.4. Buoy shows real time anomalies are already encroaching strong Nino (>1.5C is considered strong). AMJ may see the first 1C ONI, for sure MJJ which is when 1997 had it.

[Kingarabian]

Strong WWB over the eastern areas of the Pacific mainly over 3 and 1+2. We're going to see this area warm quickly soon while steady over in 3.4. Buoy shows real time anomalies are already encroaching strong Nino (>1.5C is considered strong). AMJ may see the first 1C ONI, for sure MJJ which is when 1997 had it.

Is it responsible for Andres and Blanca?

[Ntxw]

Strong WWB over the eastern areas of the Pacific mainly over 3 and 1+2. We're going to see this area warm quickly soon while steady over in 3.4. Buoy shows real time anomalies are already encroaching strong Nino (>1.5C is considered strong). AMJ may see the first 1C ONI, for sure MJJ which is when 1997 had it.

Is it responsible for Andres and Blanca?

Probably, and Carlos too when it gets going.

[Yellow Evan]

Is it responsible for Andres and Blanca?

Too high in latitude to have a major effect if I had to guess, but could be wrong.

[Hurricaneman]

The El Nino should grow stronger in the 1 2 and 3 regions but does look like it may weaken some in the 4 region and in the subsurface around 160E aka the 4 region there are cold anomalies so that may be a setup for a cold neutral to La Nina next year which would make sense looking at past El Ninos

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