EPAC: BLANCA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ27 KNES 021801
TCSENP

A. 02E (BLANCA)

B. 02/1745Z

C. 13.0N

D. 104.6W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...DT=4.0 BASED ON .175 DG CDO IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY. PT=4.0. MET=4.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

02/1412Z 12.9N 104.6W SSMIS


...SCHWARTZ

[Yellow Evan]

I'd go 70 tbh.

[Kingarabian]

Looks really good on the low res AMSU.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 JUN 2015 Time : 174500 UTC
Lat : 13:04:57 N Lon : 104:37:28 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 980.6mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 4.5 4.4

Center Temp : -78.7C Cloud Region Temp : -76.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* BLANCA EP022015 06/02/15 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 65 74 84 94 105 119 129 124 118 104 88 69 49
V (KT) LAND 65 74 84 94 105 119 129 124 118 104 88 69 49
V (KT) LGE mod 65 75 85 94 102 113 122 124 119 105 87 69 52
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 3 1 1 0 3 6 11 9 11 15 12 17 19
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 0 -2 -2 -3 8 10 9 3 8 5 1
SHEAR DIR 6 330 93 2 195 153 82 128 105 144 146 132 161
SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 29.9 29.2 28.0 26.9 25.5 24.2
POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 163 162 163 165 166 164 157 143 132 117 104
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -51.6 -51.2 -51.1 -50.7 -51.2 -51.1 -50.7 -50.9
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 7 8 7 7 6 6 4 4
700-500 MB RH 82 84 85 86 83 79 74 69 68 65 60 53 46
MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 23 25 29 34 39 38 39 34 29 22 16
850 MB ENV VOR 8 14 25 42 58 66 82 108 98 80 55 61 52
200 MB DIV 93 117 118 141 155 89 116 90 75 28 -10 2 -12
700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 0 -1 1 0 3 -2 -1 -7
LAND (KM) 577 593 609 609 609 602 543 470 383 356 342 193 30
LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.0 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.9 13.8 15.2 16.8 18.3 19.7 21.2 22.7
LONG(DEG W) 104.6 104.6 104.6 104.6 104.6 104.7 105.4 106.4 107.4 108.3 108.9 109.6 110.2
STM SPEED (KT) 0 1 1 0 1 3 7 9 9 8 8 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 99 99 100 100 100 98 90 62 21 5 2 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 9. 7. 5. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 5. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0.
PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 10. 19. 28. 28. 28. 22. 14. 5. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 10. 7. 7. 6. 5. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 9. 19. 29. 40. 54. 64. 59. 53. 39. 23. 4. -16.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/02/15 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 99.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 124.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 95% is 7.6 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 95% is 11.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 95% is 16.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 95% is 23.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[cycloneye]

Maybe not so fast as sone dry air trys to get in?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Seems like that way per Levi Cowan

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 16m16 minutes ago
Latest visible imagery suggests #Blanca may underperform this evening. Some dry air may have been sucked into the inner core.

[cycloneye]

The x factor shows it's head to cool the cat 4-5 party.

[Kingarabian]

The x factor shows it's head to cool the cat 4-5 party.

Maybe, but it has a lot of time and plenty of fuel ahead.

Let's not forget that the way dry air affects storms in the EPAC is different than the Atlantic. Generally, EPAC storms have proven to intensify despite a drier and stable atmosphere.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Maybe not so fast as sone dry air trys to get in?

Some being the operative word. I doubt it changes the ultimate outcome. Blanca already seems to be rebounding from that intrusion.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2015

Blanca continues to strengthen, and although there are no signs of
an eye yet in geostationary imagery, a low- to mid-level eye was
evident on an SSMIS pass from 1413Z. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB are both T4.0/65 kt, and Blanca has been upgraded to a hurricane
for this advisory. Blanca has strengthened 20 kt in the past 12
hours and appears to be taking advantage of the favorable
environment. There isn't much new to say about the intensity
forecast, as very low shear and warm, deep ocean waters should
support rapid strengthening over the next couple of days. The NHC
forecast follows this trend, forecasting Blanca to be a major
hurricane in about 24 hours and peak near 120 kt in 2 to 3 days,
and this could be conservative. After 72 hours, the cyclone should
begin weakening as it moves over much cooler waters and the shear
increases. The NHC forecast is close to the SHIPS and LGEM models
through the period.

The tropical cyclone is still stationary, and little net motion is
expected for the next 36 hours while steering currents remain weak.
After that time, a ridge will build over Mexico to the northeast of
Blanca, which should impart a northwestward track on days 2 and 3,
with the cyclone turning more toward the north-northwest at days 4
and 5. The spread of the track guidance increases markedly by day
5. The GFS, GEFS mean, HWRF, and GFDL are faster and farther to the
right, showing a track into the Gulf of California. On the other
side of the guidance, the ECMWF and especially the UKMET are much
slower and farther to the left, keeping the center of Blanca
southwest of the Baja California peninsula. The NHC forecast has
been adjusted a little to the east at days 4 and 5 and now is very
close to the TVCE multi-model consensus. Note that it is too soon
to determine what impacts Blanca will have on the Baja California
peninsula, as 5-day track forecast errors average about 170 miles in
the east Pacific.

Blanca marks the earliest formation of the second hurricane in the
eastern North Pacific basin since reliable records began in 1971.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 13.1N 104.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 13.0N 104.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 12.9N 104.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 13.0N 104.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 14.0N 105.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 16.8N 107.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 20.0N 109.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 23.0N 110.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[Dave C]

That upper low in the gulf of mexico is providing quite an outflow channel for Bianca

[galaxy401]

There seems to be a high ratio of Tropical Storms to Hurricanes in the EPAC lately.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Blanca is now a hurricane and it will continue to get better organized since the conditions are just right (low wind shear and warm waters plus plenty of convection). Also, it is noteworthy for those in the Baja california peninsula that a landfall is possible and forecast by the NHC.



Synopsis on Blanca and other storms: http://goo.gl/YE5KFY

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

The records keep falling in 2015 EPAC season.

Todd Kimberlain ‏@ToddKimberlain · 8m8 minutes ago
Blanca could become first landfalling TC in Baja California in June and so early.

[Hurricane Jed]

And only two storms into the season....

[Hurricane Jed]

This storm has an extra bit of meaning for me as well. First time I've seen a hurricane named Blanca. Last time there was a Hurricane Blanca was back in 1985 and I wasn't born until 1987.

[Kingarabian]

[Yellow Evan]

There seems to be a high ratio of Tropical Storms to Hurricanes in the EPAC lately.

EPAC seems to be entering a higher period of activity overall.

[Yellow Evan]

The records keep falling in 2015 EPAC season.

Todd Kimberlain ‏@ToddKimberlain · 8m8 minutes ago
Blanca could become first landfalling TC in Baja California in June and so early.

Earliest one is in mid-July in 1954.