EPAC: BLANCA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 JUN 2015 Time : 214500 UTC
Lat : 13:02:45 N Lon : 104:33:13 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 978.8mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.6 4.7

Center Temp : -79.2C Cloud Region Temp : -78.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

[cycloneye]

Up to 75kts.

EP, 02, 2015060300, , BEST, 0, 128N, 1047W, 75, 980, HU

[Yellow Evan]

Seems to have hit a little dry air.

[Yellow Evan]

02/2345 UTC 12.8N 104.7W T4.5/4.5 BLANCA -- East Pacific

[cycloneye]

Blanca is still dealing with dry air intrusions and that has slowed the expected RI process.

[Yellow Evan]

Not an annular transition type. Those are reserved for cool SST's.

[Yellow Evan]

Blanca is still dealing with dry air intrusions and that has slowed the expected RI process.

http://i.imgur.com/1L4TO2T.jpg

I wouldn't worry about it. I kinda expected this actually.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 JUN 2015 Time : 011500 UTC
Lat : 12:45:16 N Lon : 104:38:53 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 974.1mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 4.8 4.7

Center Temp : -81.6C Cloud Region Temp : -77.8C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Here's a higher res microwave pass than the one cycloneye posted:

[cycloneye]

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.7N 105.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.


HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2015

An 0100Z SSMIS pass revealed that the mid-level eye which was
observed earlier today has shrunk, and spiral convective bands are
emanating away from the central convection, favoring the southern
semicircle. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to
T4.5/77 kt, so Blanca's initial intensity is raised to 75 kt. This
is the first instance in which Blanca's intensity has increased by
at least 30 kt over a 24-hour period, so it appears that the
hurricane is now experiencing the period of rapid intensification
that has been forecast.

Rapid intensification is expected to continue for at least the next
24-36 hours due to an environment of negligible vertical shear,
deep warm water, and abundant atmospheric moisture. Because of
these conditions, the statistical-dynamical models (SHIPS, LGEM,
and Florida State Superensemble) all show Blanca reaching major
hurricane strength in the next 18-24 hours and then peaking at
category 4 strength in about 48 hours. Meanwhile, for reasons that
are unclear at the moment, the HWRF and GFDL models keep Blanca
essentially steady at category 1 strength for the next four days.
Since there are no apparent reasons why the environment shouldn't
support strengthening, the official forecast is a blend of the
statistical-dynamical models and is just a little higher than the
previous forecast during the first 48 hours. By days 4 and 5,
increasing vertical shear and sub-optimal sea surface temperatures
should cause Blanca to weaken fairly quickly while it approaches
the Baja California peninsula.

Blanca appears to have drifted southwestward during the past 12-18
hours, and the hurricane is expected to move little during the next
24 hours. After that time, a deepening trough along the U.S. west
coast should cause Blanca to accelerate gradually and move north-
northwestward between 36-120 hours. With the exception of the GFDL
and UKMET models, there is very little cross-track variability
among the other reliable track models, but there are some
differences in forward speed. The GFS continues to be one of the
fastest models, while the ECMWF is one of the slowest and doesn't
show Blanca reaching the Baja California peninsula during the
five-day forecast period. Since the 00Z multi-model consensus
(TVCE) is very close to the previous NHC forecast (OFCI), I elected
not to make any significant changes to the track forecast on this
cycle.

Even though Blanca's forecast track has not shifted eastward, there
is the potential for the tropical-storm-force wind field to expand
in that direction during the next few days. Therefore, interests
along the west-central coast of mainland Mexico, especially in the
state of Jalisco, should monitor the progress of Blanca.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 12.8N 104.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 12.7N 104.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 12.8N 104.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 13.4N 105.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 14.7N 105.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 17.5N 108.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 20.5N 109.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 23.5N 110.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Hurricane Jed]

They've upped the forecast peak. Won't be surprised to see it go higher.

[Yellow Evan]

Worst comes to worst, I think this is an Emilia 12.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Blanca's eye is making its first appearance on conventional satellite imagery:

[Yellow Evan]

I think it'll take longer than some think to clear out.

[Yellow Evan]

Eat my words. New frame also has the warm spot.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS. Brings it to 917 mbar at peak.



Deja vu?

[Kingarabian]

Ready for takeoff:

[xtyphooncyclonex]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 030857
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
400 AM CDT WED JUN 03 2015

Satellite data indicate that Blanca continues to rapidly
strengthen as a small eye has become apparent during the past
couple of hours. This is consistent with earlier microwave data
that revealed a small pinhole eye, however there has been no recent
microwave imagery to examine the current inner-core structure.
Dvorak Data T-numbers were 5.0 or 90 kt from both TAFB and SAB, but
with the recent satellite trends, the initial intensity is set at 95
kt. This is an increase in intensity of more than 40 kt over the
past 24 hour period.

Rapid intensification is forecast to continue during the next 24
hours while Blanca remains over very warm water and in a low shear
environment. The statistical-dynamical models (SHIPS, LGEM,
and Florida State Superensemble) continue to show significant
intensification during the next day or so, and all of these models
bring Blanca to major hurricane status very soon. The official
forecast is very close to the SHIPS/LGEM guidance during the first
2 to 3 days. After 72 hours, increasing southerly wind shear and
cooler waters are expected to cause fairly quick weakening as
Blanca approaches the Baja California peninsula.

Blanca has been nearly stationary overnight. Little motion is
expected today, but a north-northwestward motion is forecast to
begin on Thursday when a mid-level ridge builds to the northeast
of the hurricane. Blanca is expected to accelerate north-
northwestward in south-southeasterly flow between the aforementioned
ridge and a mid-level trough off the west coast of California. The
track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, but there
remains some differences in the forward speed of the hurricane. The
GFS remains the fastest of the dynamical models, while the ECMWF is
the slowest. The NHC forecast is again close to the previous
advisory and near the multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 12.6N 104.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 12.5N 104.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 12.9N 104.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 13.7N 105.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 15.1N 106.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 18.1N 108.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 21.1N 109.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 24.0N 110.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Kingarabian]

Blanca is a really, really intense hurricane. Almost resembles those super typhoons normally seen in the WPAC.

I'm afraid to say that 150mph is not sufficient and it could get to 170mph.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Blanca is really ready to take off and rapidly intensify. It might even become a category 5 hurricane later this week as it approaches the Baja California peninsula and make landfall as a tropical storm.




Synopsis for Blanca and others: http://goo.gl/Doqgoe

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.