Area of Disturbed Weather in the NW Caribbean

[gatorcane]

Saved image shows quite a lot of convection firing but the shear is high at the moment:


We do note the 850MB vorticity is increasing:


Shear is decreasing some:

[floridasun78]

Saved image shows quite a lot of convection firing but the shear is high at the moment:


We do note the 850MB vorticity is increasing:


Shear is decreasing some:

so what you happening?? i notice model dropping area in nw carribbean east of fl i saw gfs drop it

[Nimbus]

Unless the area WSW of Jamaica is headed for the decreased shear it doesn't look like anything at the surface could develop.
We have had a few June storms move north out of Panama, its a climatological favorable area.

[abajan]

That's some pretty hefty looking convection south of the Cayman Islands. Is this system likely to become a flooding threat down the road for the Caymans or Jamaica?

[xironman]

Time dependent, some lower level action http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

[wxman57]

Lots of wind shear. Probably not much will come of this. Maybe next week with BoC model-system.

[jlauderdal]

I am starting to wonder if we will see any rain even a drop out of this. Watching the radar all day rain comes up from the keys splits die's out and no rain. Have not gotten one single drop here in Westchester by FIU.

tomorrow looks better but look at my post from earlier today, i thought this might happen..its just not a great setup for SE FL, lots of cloud cover, lift is to the west and south..maybe tomorrow or even later in the week if we can get some sun

had some sun today but nothing widespread could get going...have a couple more days of rain chances then ridging builds back and the west coast gets the activity

[HURRICANELONNY]

Looks like the trough dug a little deeper then forecast. All the convection is east of florida.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[gatorcane]

ECMWF got this one right. Should have known better to bet against it!

[cycloneye]

Now we can let this thread go down the pages.