Global model runs discussion

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cycloneye
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Re: Global model runs discussion

#8221 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 03, 2015 3:14 pm

1923 had a classic crossover.

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Re: Global model runs discussion

#8222 Postby WPBWeather » Wed Jun 03, 2015 3:29 pm

cycloneye wrote:1923 had a classic crossover.

Image


Yes it did. Another well known Met is likening this set up as 1957 and Audrey.
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Re: Global model runs discussion

#8223 Postby MiamiensisWx » Wed Jun 03, 2015 3:48 pm

WPBWeather wrote:
cycloneye wrote:1923 had a classic crossover.

Image


Yes it did. Another well known Met is likening this set up as 1957 and Audrey.

J. B., I take?

There are some other examples (s)he could have chosen without raising the specter of worst-case scenarios. And I don't buy the ECMWF's crossover for a second given its very long range the extremely hostile conditions in the Gulf and Caribbean.
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Re: Global model runs discussion

#8224 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Jun 03, 2015 4:04 pm

Looks like it has happened before after all. Euro backed away from the idea and now it's back and more bullish than ever. Does this time frame coincide with a MJO pulse?
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#8225 Postby Hammy » Wed Jun 03, 2015 5:58 pm

18z GFS shows weak while Euro shows stronger--I've seen this happen more often than not preceding actual development.
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Re: Global model runs discussion

#8226 Postby BigA » Wed Jun 03, 2015 8:56 pm

Hammy wrote:18z GFS shows weak while Euro shows stronger--I've seen this happen more often than not preceding actual development.


I wouldn't worry about model intensity now, as we're still at least a week from anything forming. But it is relevant that both the ECMWF and GFS (and CMC) show vorticity crossing from the Pacific to the GOM and lowering pressure in the GOM Of course there is still plenty of time for the models to change. Still, with the convection-supporting MJO phase, some sort of GOM development is reasonable.
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#8227 Postby BigB0882 » Wed Jun 03, 2015 9:46 pm

I'm going on a cruise leaving out of Nola on June 21st. If this early season storm is going to happen it better happen before then and not be very strong.
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Re: Global model runs discussion

#8228 Postby Hammy » Wed Jun 03, 2015 11:15 pm

BigA wrote:
Hammy wrote:18z GFS shows weak while Euro shows stronger--I've seen this happen more often than not preceding actual development.


I wouldn't worry about model intensity now, as we're still at least a week from anything forming.


Oh, my main point was more of an indicator, where Euro being the stronger of the two tends to be followed eventually by some sort of development (as in this case) but not so much if the GFS is the stronger of the two.
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#8229 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jun 04, 2015 12:34 am

before anyone mentions the 1965 crossover, it's unlikely to survive reanalysis, at least didn't survive mine .. the hurricane committee will have the final say
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Re:

#8230 Postby Hammy » Thu Jun 04, 2015 1:22 am

HURAKAN wrote:before anyone mentions the 1965 crossover, it's unlikely to survive reanalysis, at least didn't survive mine .. the hurricane committee will have the final say


Are 1964-65 available for reading anywhere?
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Re: Re:

#8231 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jun 04, 2015 1:38 am

Hammy wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:before anyone mentions the 1965 crossover, it's unlikely to survive reanalysis, at least didn't survive mine .. the hurricane committee will have the final say


Are 1964-65 available for reading anywhere?


not yet
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#8232 Postby Rgv20 » Thu Jun 04, 2015 7:39 am

0zECMWF definitely aggressive on developing a TC in the long range...The ensembles are not that aggressive, still a long time to watch it tho...

0zECMWF Forecast Day 10
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Re: Global model runs discussion

#8233 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Jun 04, 2015 9:26 am

Can someone explain what model this is? It was posted a few days back showing a system in the Yucatan channel at 240 hrs and now shows this, 977mb in gulf?

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Re: Global model runs discussion

#8234 Postby tolakram » Thu Jun 04, 2015 9:43 am

THE GEOS-5 SYSTEM: http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/GEOS/

I don't know anything about it.
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#8235 Postby Alyono » Thu Jun 04, 2015 12:49 pm

MU has trended slightly stronger.

However, the Canadian does not even have any precip in the Gulf at 240 hours. Basically, it has clear skies

One of the models is not properly resolving the MJO
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