ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Dean_175]

Wow - what an impressive El Nino so far- with last weekly nino3.4 at 1.3C,still very warm subsurface temp anomalies, and some good sustained westerly wind anomalies past few months(that includes some strong WWBs). If this trend continues, we could reach 1.5C soon and even see ONI for JJA in the strong (>1.5C) category. Since 1950, only 1997 had a JJA value of 1.5C or above, though 1987 came close at 1.4C. As we move through the spring barrier, dynamic models have become more confident of at least a moderate El Nino-with many showing strong to very strong. I wonder why there hasn't been much "hype" this year of a strong nino, as opposed to last April when the only promising signal we had was a strong KW? In fact, there hasn't even been much media coverage at all about El Nino this year.

[Kingarabian]

Wow - what an impressive El Nino so far- with last weekly nino3.4 at 1.3C,still very warm subsurface temp anomalies, and some good sustained westerly wind anomalies past few months(that includes some strong WWBs). If this trend continues, we could reach 1.5C soon and even see ONI for JJA in the strong (>1.5C) category. Since 1950, only 1997 had a JJA value of 1.5C or above, though 1987 came close at 1.4C. As we move through the spring barrier, dynamic models have become more confident of at least a moderate El Nino-with many showing strong to very strong. I wonder why there hasn't been much "hype" this year of a strong nino, as opposed to last April when the only promising signal we had was a strong KW? In fact, there hasn't even been much media coverage at all about El Nino this year.

The media has a To-Worried-to-be-Wrong-Again syndrome.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

You guys are totally wrong. Media outlets are talking about the effects of the El Niño drought and devastation it has caused to our farmers etc in the country. Millions of people would be badly affected from the lack of rainfall and our dams are at their critical levels

[Kingarabian]

You guys are totally wrong. Media outlets are talking about the effects of the El Niño drought and devastation it has caused to our farmers etc in the country. Millions of people would be badly affected from the lack of rainfall and our dams are at their critical levels

Talking about the media in the U.S.A .

[xtyphooncyclonex]

A lot of articles showing up about the intensifying moderate event

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Monthly SST data for Niño regions. Looks like ONI for MAM is 0.74C (0.7C)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indic ... 1-10.ascii

[Ntxw]

The latest MEI update came out with +1.567, which is the highest since 1997-1998 and slightly stronger than 2009-2010 at it's peak. The MEI as previously mentioned before indicates the Ocean and Atmospheric conditions connected to ENSO. In short this data indicates conditions resemble that of a moderate to strong El Nino in place at this time. A rare feat for April/May as the update is indicating.

Read it here

"...The updated (April-May) MEI has risen by 0.61 standard deviations in one month to +1.57, for a high ranking above the 'strong' El Niño threshold (upper 10%ile). This is the highest MEI value in 17 years, surpassing the peak of the 2009-10 El Niño by a few 1/100. The current El Niño has ranked above the weak El Niño threshold for four months in a row, and above the strong threshold for two months running. If it were to remain above the strong threshold for just one more month, it would be the first strong El Niño event since 1997-98 with at least three months registering in the upper 10%ile. By this definition, six other El Niño events occurred since 1950: 1957-58, '65-66, '72-73, '82-83, '86-87, and '91-92, or just over once a decade."

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Pool continues to grow

[Ntxw]

Already seeing hints of another westerly wind event that may take hold mid to late month starting in the WPAC. Signal is a little weak now to the dynamical guidance because it is a little far out but this year has proven them to gradually get stronger as the period gets closer. The recent WWB which began mid May traveled across the Pacific and is now making an impact off the South American coast in the eastern tropical Pacific. Will be interesting to see the MJO come out of the Indian Ocean and intensify over the WPAC. May see typhoon activity pick up soon. I think it is a good foregone conclusion to think we have a strong Nino coming, question is will it get above the 2C threshold come fall?

[LarryWx]

Looking at the SOI outlook for June:

Per the latest model consensus with an emphasis on the Euro, there is still no indication that the SOI is headed back to the strongly -SOI's that dominated most of May at least through ~6/16. So, as of now the projection for June 1-16 is for at most a modestly negative SOI. This raises the chance that June overall won't be a strongly -SOI month. IF that were to occur, it would represent a significant + diversion of this June's SOI from the solidly to strongly -SOI consensus of June for the nine analogs that I've found that were either (oncoming) 2nd year strong/super or standalone oncoming superstrong Nino's:



1997: -24.3

1987: -17.9

1982: -17.2

1972: -10.9

1940: -17.2

1905: -27.7

1896: -27.0

1888: -14.4

1877: -7.0



By the way, the July #'s were similar: -9.0, -17.3, -17.9, -17.3, -14.3, -19.8, -19.1, -15.5, -9.5

[cycloneye]

For a change.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 40m40 minutes ago
First normal tradewinds in > 30d fcst for the eq Pac. MJO-related so maybe slight pause trend toward strong #ElNino

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Now beginning its transition to a moderate to strong Niño. Maybe we'll get our first +1.5°C reading tomorrow

[xtyphooncyclonex]

For a change.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 40m40 minutes ago
First normal tradewinds in > 30d fcst for the eq Pac. MJO-related so maybe slight pause trend toward strong #ElNino

Well still, evident westerlies far west of the IDL causing Downwelling and warming over eastern regions

[Ntxw]

This week's update nudged down to 1.2C. The ONI also updated and was up to 0.7C

[cycloneye]

Text of CPC weekly update that has Nino 3.4 at +1.2C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[wxman57]

June Euro forecast is in for Nino 3.4. More ensemble spread with a mean of around +2.4-2.5 for the peak vs. near +3.0 in May.

[Ntxw]

June Euro forecast is in for Nino 3.4. More ensemble spread with a mean of around +2.4-2.5 for the peak vs. near +3.0 in May.

We have passed the spring barrier so the 2.4-2.5 mean is more realistic (though still high) compared to 3.0. Though Im surprised there is still good spread, you'd think they'd start converging. Somewhere between 1.5-2.0 I think is highest probability, 2.0 or greater will depend on the second push late summer on fall if that happens.

[cycloneye]

June Euro forecast is in for Nino 3.4. More ensemble spread with a mean of around +2.4-2.5 for the peak vs. near +3.0 in May.

We have passed the spring barrier so the 2.4-2.5 mean is more realistic (though still high) compared to 3.0. Though Im surprised there is still good spread, you'd think they'd start converging.

Let's see if the Mid-June plume of all models is not as spread as the Mid-May one.

[HURRICANELONNY]

How do I find the SST el nino of other years like june 97 or june 82. To compare

[MiamiensisWx]

How do I find the SST of other years like June '97 or June '82?

For each NINO zone, click on this link and scroll down to "SST and Other Climate Series." You will find links to NINO 1+2, 3, and 4. For overall SST since 1950, I would use this source. The latter link explicitly bases its data on NINO 3.4. Interestingly, the June 2015 ECMWF forecast for NINO 3.4 (+2.4-2.5° C departure) would make the current Niño on a par with those in 1982-83 and 1997-98, the two strongest on record since 1950. It would also match the event in 1877-78, which was also among the very strongest measured.