EPAC: BLANCA - Post-Tropical

[EquusStorm]

Yeahhh... as much as I would love to see Blanca explode again and set some more records, today's satellite presentation has been very unimpressive, intensity-wise. Almost depressing really. Inner core is as ragged and disheveled as you'll see in a cat. 2 storm, and cloud tops are remarkably warm there. That said, that large eye is pretty interesting, and the last several frames seem to be indicating better banding closer to the center in the southeastern corner of the circulation... though cloud tops are still rather warm across the whole system in general and the overall symmetry of the storm seems to have actually decreased a bit, if only temporarily. And the eyewall is rather pitiful in the NE quadrant according to microwave imagery. If it's going to intensify again much beyond its previous peak, it's seriously got a good bit of reorganizing to do. And honestly that sort of structure has shown to be pretty marginal when it comes to rapid intensifying in past storms.

The new advisory does have it moving faster though, up to 8mph, so at least it's getting out of its own upwelled little corner of the Pacific.

[CrazyC83]

If I were to guess, the pressure is a lot lower than 975 if the intensity is 85 kt. Those broad storms with huge RMW's tend to have low pressures compared to the intensity. I'd say the pressure is closer to 950mb.

[Kingarabian]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 970.2mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 5.1 5.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 50 km

Center Temp : +8.4C Cloud Region Temp : -59.9C

Scene Type : LARGE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Yellow Evan]

Eye near WMG status, but not sure if it matters now.

[Kingarabian]

Tops beginning to cool.

[Kingarabian]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 966.1mb/ 90.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.0 5.3 5.3
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 55 km
Center Temp : +3.9C Cloud Region Temp : -64.6C
Scene Type : LARGE EYE

[Yellow Evan]

I don't think the core is very well organized. Eye looks like an oval.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Blanca is making some attempt at consolidation tonight as it moves away from the colder waters it upwelled. I wouldn't be surprised if the large eye gradually filled in and a central dense overcast took over by morning.

[Kingarabian]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 962.3mb/ 94.8kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 5.7 5.7
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km
Center Temp : -21.8C Cloud Region Temp : -66.5C
Scene Type : EYE

[EquusStorm]

Core still looks extremely ragged, and symmetry is pretty poor, but banding is actually a little more pronounced, and cloud tops have cooled pretty significantly in the last few hours. It isn't going to completely reorganize its core in the next little while, but as it moves into warmer water, it's definitely looking at least a little more robust. Wouldn't be shocked if it briefly becomes a major again before it hits unfavorable territory.

[Yellow Evan]

Models still show it peaking in 36 hours as it has been doing for 24-36 hours by now, lol.

Blanca is making a return to respectability, but let's not get too ahead of ourselves. This has been a wacky storm so far.

[Kingarabian]

At least Recon will have something worthy to sample.

[Kingarabian]

[Kingarabian]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 JUN 2015 Time : 071500 UTC
Lat : 14:01:13 N Lon : 106:04:27 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 956.6mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.7 5.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 31 km

Center Temp : -12.2C Cloud Region Temp : -65.4C

Scene Type : EYE

[Kingarabian]

[Kingarabian]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 050834
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
300 AM MDT FRI JUN 05 2015

The convective structure of Blanca has improved during the past few
hours, with an increase in the coverage of cold cloud tops around a
ragged eye in geostationary imagery. The initial intensity is set to
90 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB (77 kt) and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimates of around 100 kt.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate Blanca later today to provide more information on the
intensity and structure of the cyclone. The initial 34-kt and 50-kt
wind radii are based on data from ASCAT-A and ASCAT-B passes.

The environment of low shear and warm SSTs should support some
additional intensification during the next 24 hours or so. However,
given the somewhat ragged appearance of the inner core on microwave
imagery, only slight strengthening is shown in the official
forecast, and even this is a bit above all of the guidance. By 36
hours the shear increases while the cyclone begins to move over
cooler SSTs and into a drier airmass. This combination of factors
should result in weakening, which should accelerate by 48 hours
after Blanca crosses the 26C SST isotherm.

The initial motion estimate is 320/09. Blanca is forecast to move
generally northwestward to north-northwestward during the next
several days, as it is steered by a ridge centered over northern
Mexico and a trough west of the Baja California peninsula. There
continues to be some spread in the guidance beyond 48 hours, likely
due to differences in the extent of mid-level ridging north of
Blanca. The ECMWF has trended a bit to the right this cycle but is
still slower and west of the consensus, while the UKMET is even
farther to the west. The GFS, GEFS mean, HWRF and GFDL continue to
cluster farther right and faster. The new NHC track forecast is
largely an update of the previous one through 48 hours and has
been shifted a little to the right after that time. The official
forecast is close to TVCE multi-model consensus through the period.

Moisture associated with Blanca is moving northward and could help
produce heavy rainfall over portions of southwestern Mexico during
the next day or so, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 14.3N 106.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 15.4N 107.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 16.9N 108.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 18.4N 109.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 20.0N 110.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 23.7N 111.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 26.5N 112.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/0600Z 28.0N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[Kingarabian]

[Cyclenall]

The last 30 hours for this hurricane have been very entertaining for the most part. Wednesday evening the eye was just about gone and the CDO was looking very sickly, the type of appearance of massive dry air intrusions. Looked to be 80-85 knots then. Also interesting about that massive feeder band to the SE of the CDO was larger width wise than the main part of the hurricane early yesterday morning too.

When I saw the appearance and the NHC intensity for Blanca this afternoon, I had a good laugh. Many aspects to this that are very hilarious, a Raw T# at 2.3 when this was suppose to be a CAT5 right now, this truly is an unique tropical cyclone. The dry air is ravaging this poor crappy hurricane like its everyone's business.

Did anyone else notice this yesterday?:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 JUN 2015 Time : 041500 UTC
Lat : 11:52:16 N Lon : 104:46:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 951.6mb/112.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.3 5.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -31.6C Cloud Region Temp : -62.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : ON

This is absolutely hilarious, someone turned on the rapid dissipation flag early yesterday morning. Instead of RI'ing to CAT5 strength that flag was on instead. Even better, the SHIPS RI Index was maxed out for 24 hours with record values and then we have this during the period in question . Probably among some of the funniest things I've ever seen tracking TCs.

I don't think the core is very well organized. Eye looks like an oval.

Oh man is Blanca's structure ever ugly, that F18 scan from 0239z was a doozy which no one posted here and I didn't get a chance to, looks like a bunch of moon crescents jammed in the center .

Blanca is making some attempt at consolidation tonight as it moves away from the colder waters it upwelled. I wouldn't be surprised if the large eye gradually filled in and a central dense overcast took over by morning.

I don't think I have ever seen that happen in my 9 years of watching tropical cyclones, but Blanca is unique so anything is possible. This type of setup with regards to the structure of Blanca and the environment she is heading off to is one of a kind because storms with massive eyes like that usually don't enter more favorable environments after enormous eye enlargement.

[Kingarabian]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 JUN 2015 Time : 094500 UTC
Lat : 14:26:44 N Lon : 106:19:45 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 954.2mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 6.0 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 32 km

Center Temp : -3.3C Cloud Region Temp : -66.0C

Scene Type : EYE

[Kingarabian]

Back to looking scary again. In time for Recon.