EPAC: BLANCA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

I'd go out of the limb and say Blanca looks nice.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Back to Cat 2:

EP, 02, 2015060600, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1080W, 85, 971, HU

[Yellow Evan]

Not too shabby.

[Yellow Evan]

06/0000 UTC 15.8N 108.1W T5.0/5.0 BLANCA

I'd go 90.

TXPZ27 KNES 060019
TCSENP

A. 02E (BLANCA)

B. 06/0000Z

C. 15.8N

D. 108.1W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM LOOKS SLIGHTLY BETTER OVER 24HRS WITH THICKER
BANDING AND COOLER TOPS IN EAST SEMICIRCLE. DT=5.0 FOR OFF WHITE EYE
EMBEDDED IN MEDIUM GRAY WITH RING OF BLACK. MET ON SLOW CURVE IS 5.0
AND PAT=5.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SWANSON

[cycloneye]

Up to 85kts.

EP, 02, 2015060600, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1080W, 85, 971, HU

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

TAFB came in at T5.5/102kt:

EP, 02, 201506052345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1580N, 10800W, , 2, 102, 2, 960, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, MF, VI, 3, 5555 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T,

Probably a little on the bullish side. I doubt Blanca has improved that dramatically since recon left. 85-90kt is good.

[Yellow Evan]

I'd go 95, given that both numbers are .5 of a T higher than Recon.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 JUN 2015 Time : 001500 UTC
Lat : 15:53:49 N Lon : 108:13:44 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 931.0mb/129.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 7.0 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -12.0C Cloud Region Temp : -76.2C

Scene Type : EYE

[CrazyC83]

I'd be very conservative and only go 85 kt. Given the structural changes, it likely is nowhere near as intense as satellite suggests. When Recon found 80 kt this afternoon, I believe it was T5.0 and the ADT was close to T6.0?

[Kingarabian]

I'd be very conservative and only go 85 kt. Given the structural changes, it likely is nowhere near as intense as satellite suggests. When Recon found 80 kt this afternoon, I believe it was T5.0 and the ADT was close to T6.0?

Both agencies had T4.5, and to be fair I believe it was beginning to strengthen as recon left. ADT has been on that dank stuff.

[Yellow Evan]

I'd be very conservative and only go 85 kt. Given the structural changes, it likely is nowhere near as intense as satellite suggests. When Recon found 80 kt this afternoon, I believe it was T5.0 and the ADT was close to T6.0?

It was T4.5 from SAB and T5.0 from TAFB. That supports 80, just like how a T5.0 from SAB and a T5.5 from TAFB supports 95.

We can toss out ADT though, since it doesn't work with lopsided storms.

[Alyono]

I'd go 95, given that both numbers are .5 of a T higher than Recon.

Just made an in house Dvorak. I am still going with a 4.5 for this. Not sufficient convection on the entire northern semi-circle to justify a higher rating

[CrazyC83]

Here is how I would have the BT so far (totally unofficial, in HURDAT2 form):

EP022015, BLANCA, XX,

20150601, 0000, , TD, 12.7N, 103.2W, 30, 1007, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
20150601, 0600, , TD, 13.2N, 103.6W, 30, 1007, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
20150601, 1200, , TS, 13.5N, 104.1W, 35, 1005, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
20150601, 1800, , TS, 13.3N, 103.9W, 45, 1002, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
20150602, 0000, , TS, 13.3N, 104.2W, 50, 1000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
20150602, 0600, , TS, 13.2N, 104.4W, 60, 996, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
20150602, 1200, , HU, 13.0N, 104.5W, 65, 993, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
20150602, 1800, , HU, 12.9N, 104.5W, 75, 983, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
20150603, 0000, , HU, 12.8N, 104.7W, 85, 974, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
20150603, 0600, , HU, 12.6N, 104.7W, 100, 961, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
20150603, 1200, , HU, 12.4N, 104.6W, 120, 943, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
20150603, 1500, I, HU, 12.3N, 104.5W, 125, 940, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
20150603, 1800, , HU, 12.3N, 104.6W, 120, 942, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
20150604, 0000, , HU, 12.1N, 104.7W, 105, 951, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
20150604, 0600, , HU, 11.9N, 104.9W, 90, 963, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
20150604, 1200, , HU, 12.2N, 104.9W, 80, 974, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
20150604, 1800, , HU, 12.5N, 105.0W, 70, 982, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
20150605, 0000, , HU, 13.2N, 105.3W, 70, 981, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
20150605, 0600, , HU, 13.9N, 105.9W, 75, 979, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
20150605, 1200, , HU, 14.5N, 106.5W, 80, 976, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
20150605, 1800, , HU, 15.0N, 107.1W, 80, 975, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
20150605, 0000, , HU, 15.8N, 108.0W, 85, 968, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,

(Ignore the 0's at the end since I didn't analyze the wind field size)

* Some of the early intensities are increased, on the higher end of Dvorak estimates, with ASCAT data suggesting at one point it was stronger than Dvorak suggested.
* The peak intensity is moved up considerably, to 1500Z June 3 (about 9 hours earlier than operational). I think it reached 125 kt right there, then the upwelling began. There was good consensus I believe on a T6.5 average there.
* The weakening begins sooner, and is greater. I think it bottomed out at 70 kt, a bit lower than Dvorak (T4.5) as Recon found it lower.

[Yellow Evan]

I'd go 95, given that both numbers are .5 of a T higher than Recon.

Just made an in house Dvorak. I am still going with a 4.5 for this. Not sufficient convection on the entire northern semi-circle to justify a higher rating

Using what image/frame?

[Kingarabian]

TAFB going with 5.0 is surprising as I find them the most conservative.

[Yellow Evan]

TAFB going with 5.0 is surprising as I find them the most conservative.

TAFB is very nice to hurricanes.

It's SAB that was the one that is conservative.

TAFB is 5.5 now anyhow. It was 5.0 when Recon was in though.

[Kingarabian]

Almost a full ring of white and plenty of gray/dark gray. Deserving of the 5.0 if recon never went out today. Also has some substance since the core is back.

[Kingarabian]

TAFB going with 5.0 is surprising as I find them the most conservative.

TAFB is very nice to hurricanes.

It's SAB that was the one that is conservative.

TAFB is 5.5 now anyhow. It was 5.0 when Recon was in though.

Really? Shows 5.0 on the atcf fix file I'm looking at.

[Yellow Evan]

Really? Shows 5.0 on the atcf fix file I'm looking at.

Nevermind. I thought it was at 5.5. I'd go 90, and could understand 85 then.

5.5 seems way too high. My analysis yields 5.0, but could argue for as low as 4.0.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

TAFB going with 5.0 is surprising as I find them the most conservative.

TAFB is very nice to hurricanes.

It's SAB that was the one that is conservative.

TAFB is 5.5 now anyhow. It was 5.0 when Recon was in though.

Really? Shows 5.0 on the atcf fix file I'm looking at.

EP, 02, 201506052345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1580N, 10800W, , 2, 102, 2, 960, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, MF, VI, 3, 5555 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T,