EPAC: BLANCA - Post-Tropical

#521 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 1:45 am

Kingarabian wrote:ADT is not messing around LOL

At the rate, we're going, this is hitting Hayain-levels.

#522 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 1:50 am

EP, 02, 2015060606, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1085W, 95, 961, HU, 34, NEQ, 180, 150, 130, 140, 1007, 270, 35, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BLANCA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004,
EP, 02, 2015060606, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1085W, 95, 961, HU, 50, NEQ, 80, 90, 90, 80, 1007, 270, 35, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BLANCA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004,
EP, 02, 2015060606, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1085W, 95, 961, HU, 64, NEQ, 50, 40, 30, 40, 1007, 270, 35, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BLANCA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004

Lmao.

#523 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 1:50 am

New AMSUB pass (2 hours old):

Note: AMSUB averages more passes per day but has considerably lesser quality than other satellites.

#524 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 1:51 am

And shows a radially different look to it than when Recon was in.

#525 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 1:53 am

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* BLANCA EP022015 06/06/15 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 95 98 99 96 89 72 48 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 95 98 99 96 89 72 48 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 95 99 99 94 88 73 57 42 33 28 27 DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 11 10 10 8 12 11 16 18 16 21 27 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 6 10 8 3 8 2 12 5 14 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 119 114 132 124 118 129 155 189 207 200 211 N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.8 28.2 27.5 26.8 26.2 24.7 23.0 22.0 21.8 21.5 21.6 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 152 146 138 131 125 110 92 81 79 75 76 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.5 -51.1 -50.4 -50.9 -51.1 -51.5 -51.5 -51.2 -50.8 -50.6 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 64 65 63 62 59 57 59 58 53 48 43 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 34 33 35 34 32 29 24 19 13 8 3 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 74 60 62 62 66 62 60 30 24 -2 9 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 36 17 21 34 19 -47 -28 13 38 30 33 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 1 1 1 1 0 -2 -3 0 0 -3 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 498 490 486 478 400 233 104 -1 6 -66 -13 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 16.4 17.2 17.9 18.6 19.3 20.9 22.9 24.7 26.3 27.7 29.1 N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 108.5 109.0 109.5 109.9 110.2 110.7 111.2 111.9 112.6 113.3 113.8 N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 9 10 9 8 7 7 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 31 14 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 417 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -12. -22. -33. -42. -49. -54. -56. -60.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2.
PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -2. -6. -13. -21. -29. -36. -44. -43. -42.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 1. -6. -23. -47. -70. -93.-112.-132.-137.-142.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/06/15 06 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/06/15 06 UTC ##
## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ##
## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

#526 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 1:54 am

Yellow Evan wrote:EP, 02, 2015060606, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1085W, 95, 961, HU, 34, NEQ, 180, 150, 130, 140, 1007, 270, 35, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BLANCA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004,
EP, 02, 2015060606, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1085W, 95, 961, HU, 50, NEQ, 80, 90, 90, 80, 1007, 270, 35, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BLANCA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004,
EP, 02, 2015060606, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1085W, 95, 961, HU, 64, NEQ, 50, 40, 30, 40, 1007, 270, 35, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BLANCA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004

Lmao.

They should at least do 100kts.

TAFB has 6.0/115kts.

talkon · #527 Postby **talkon** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 1:58 am

Yellow Evan wrote:EP, 02, 2015060606, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1085W, 95, 961, HU, 34, NEQ, 180, 150, 130, 140, 1007, 270, 35, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BLANCA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004,
EP, 02, 2015060606, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1085W, 95, 961, HU, 50, NEQ, 80, 90, 90, 80, 1007, 270, 35, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BLANCA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004,
EP, 02, 2015060606, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1085W, 95, 961, HU, 64, NEQ, 50, 40, 30, 40, 1007, 270, 35, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BLANCA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004

Lmao.

This is funny.

SAB 6.0/115 kt
TAFB 6.0/115 kt
ADT 7.1/143 kt

NHC : 95 kt :?:

xtyphooncyclonex · #528 Postby **xtyphooncyclonex** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 2:03 am

I'd honestly rate this at least 130 kts for its forecast peak intensity. Really reminds me of Phanfone last year, impressive pinhole eye, weakened, restrengthened (resurrected) much stronger with a huge eye.

#529 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 2:04 am

Krit-tonkla wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:EP, 02, 2015060606, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1085W, 95, 961, HU, 34, NEQ, 180, 150, 130, 140, 1007, 270, 35, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BLANCA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004,
EP, 02, 2015060606, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1085W, 95, 961, HU, 50, NEQ, 80, 90, 90, 80, 1007, 270, 35, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BLANCA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004,
EP, 02, 2015060606, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1085W, 95, 961, HU, 64, NEQ, 50, 40, 30, 40, 1007, 270, 35, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BLANCA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004

Lmao.

This is funny.

SAB 6.0/115 kt
TAFB 6.0/115 kt
ADT 7.1/143 kt

NHC : 95 kt

Recon didn't even find estimates much, if any lower than Dvorak. This is 105-120 knts IMO.

#530 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 2:05 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:I'd honestly rate this 130 kts. Really reminds me of Phanfone last year, impressive pinhole eye, weakened, restrengthened much stronger with a huge eye

I'd assume there's some sort of lag with the satellite presentation, so for now, I don;t think it;s that strong. Getting there though.

Good comparison to Phanfone though.

xtyphooncyclonex · #531 Postby **xtyphooncyclonex** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 2:07 am

Impressive pool of warmer SST anomalies

xtyphooncyclonex · #532 Postby **xtyphooncyclonex** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 2:08 am

Yellow Evan wrote:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:I'd honestly rate this 130 kts. Really reminds me of Phanfone last year, impressive pinhole eye, weakened, restrengthened much stronger with a huge eye

I'd assume there's some sort of lag with the satellite presentation, so for now, I don;t think it;s that strong. Getting there though.

Good comparison to Phanfone though.

Typo hehehe I edited the post

#533 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 2:11 am

Center fix off, and still 7.4

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 JUN 2015 Time : 061500 UTC
Lat : 16:23:40 N Lon : 108:47:40 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.2 / 913.7mb/146.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.2 7.4 7.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -2.7C Cloud Region Temp : -77.1C

Scene Type : EYE

#534 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 2:21 am

#535 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 2:22 am

7z frame not quite as good but still very impressive nevertheless.

#536 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 2:25 am

Yellow Evan wrote:7z frame not quite as good but still very impressive nevertheless.

Well now the core is 100% solidified. A very strong and large impressive core.

The eye will try to clear out now.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

#537 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 2:27 am

Yellow Evan wrote:
Krit-tonkla wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:EP, 02, 2015060606, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1085W, 95, 961, HU, 34, NEQ, 180, 150, 130, 140, 1007, 270, 35, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BLANCA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004,
EP, 02, 2015060606, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1085W, 95, 961, HU, 50, NEQ, 80, 90, 90, 80, 1007, 270, 35, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BLANCA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004,
EP, 02, 2015060606, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1085W, 95, 961, HU, 64, NEQ, 50, 40, 30, 40, 1007, 270, 35, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BLANCA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004

Lmao.

This is funny.

SAB 6.0/115 kt
TAFB 6.0/115 kt
ADT 7.1/143 kt

NHC : 95 kt

Recon didn't even find estimates much, if any lower than Dvorak. This is 105-120 knts IMO.

past recon has found that the EPAC actual intensities tend to run below Dvorak estimates

#538 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 2:28 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:7z frame not quite as good but still very impressive nevertheless.

Well now the core is 100% solidified. A very strong and large impressive core.

The eye will try to clear out now.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The cloud tops are still cooling to some extent, so I don't think it's peaked.

Next step is to try and get a 9C or higher (WMG) eye.

#539 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 2:29 am

Alyono wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
Krit-tonkla wrote:This is funny.

SAB 6.0/115 kt
TAFB 6.0/115 kt
ADT 7.1/143 kt

NHC : 95 kt

Recon didn't even find estimates much, if any lower than Dvorak. This is 105-120 knts IMO.

past recon has found that the EPAC actual intensities tend to run below Dvorak estimates

Sometimes, but not always. Carlotta 00 and Norbert 08 were overestimated, while others like Iselle, and Jimena 09 were underestimated .

#540 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 2:34 am

EPAC: BLANCA - Post-Tropical

Re:

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Re: EPAC: BLANCA - Hurricane

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