EPAC: BLANCA - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Lesson learned: Sometimes winds lag from sat estimates. I wonder why some folks in the WPac say that recon will show a higher intensity. Sigh

Maybe 95 kts is reasonable

[xtyphooncyclonex]

ADT is totally hyping. 2.5C eye for 7.5? WTH is that?

[Yellow Evan]

Lesson learned: Sometimes winds lag from sat estimates. I wonder why some folks in the WPac say that recon will show a higher intensity. Sigh

Maybe 95 kts is reasonable

It can't lag that much.

It looks like 120-130 knts, but with the lag it's 110-125 knts.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This actually debunked the belief of recon yielding higher intensities.

[Yellow Evan]

ADT is totally hyping. 2.5C eye for 7.5? WTH is that?

Cloud tops are fairly cold.

[Alyono]

remember Rammasun last year? Dvorak estimates were saying 6.5 or 7.0 when it hit the Philippines. However, the surface obs only justified 95 kts

[xtyphooncyclonex]

ADT is totally hyping. 2.5C eye for 7.5? WTH is that?

Cloud tops are fairly cold.

So cold cloud tops mean that? Nuh uh

Eye needs to warm to 15C IMO

[Yellow Evan]

remember Rammasun last year? Dvorak estimates were saying 6.5 or 7.0 when it hit the Philippines. However, the surface obs only justified 95 kts

Well, Wilma didn't have that much of a lag, but then again, that was a pinhole.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

If anything, this is the ugliest looking T7.5 I have ever tracked

[Yellow Evan]

ADT is totally hyping. 2.5C eye for 7.5? WTH is that?

Cloud tops are fairly cold.

So cold cloud tops mean that? Nuh uh

Eye needs to warm to 15C IMO

It's been gradually warming. May make it back to 10C.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

remember Rammasun last year? Dvorak estimates were saying 6.5 or 7.0 when it hit the Philippines. However, the surface obs only justified 95 kts

Well, Wilma didn't have that much of a lag, but then again, that was a pinhole.

Sigh. It does not mean what happened to Wilma will haplen to Blanca

Blanca is nowhere near a cat 4 or 5, lol

[Yellow Evan]

If anything, this is the ugliest looking T7.5 I have ever tracked

It's not really a T7.5. ADT is overdoing this I agree. But this is def a Cat 3, maybe low-end Cat 4.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It's been gradually warming. May make it back to 10C.

Missing my point. It has not reached even 5C yet, yet you say this will warm to 10C

So when this warms to 15C ADT will say this rivals Haiyan

Maybe Haiyan too may not have been as strong as what we have thought

[Yellow Evan]

Blanca is nowhere near a cat 4 or 5, lol

A positive eye surrounded by fairly cold cloud tops appearance wise, easily justifies Cat 4. At this point, there's been enough time for the presentation to catch up that I think it is near low-end Cat 4 strength.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This may be 95 to 110 kts at most, disappointing storm

[Yellow Evan]

It's been gradually warming. May make it back to 10C.

Missing my point. It has not reached even 5C yet, yet you say this will warm to 10C

So when this warms to 15C ADT will say this rivals Haiyan

Maybe Haiyan too may not have been as strong as what we have thought

Well, the eye was at 13C last night (when it was super large), and it's been steadily warming, so it may make it back there. Not saying it will.

Haiyan had plenty of time to catch up to its satellite presentation, so it probs was that strong.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Blanca is nowhere near a cat 4 or 5, lol

A positive eye surrounded by fairly cold cloud tops appearance wise, easily justifies Cat 4. At this point, there's been enough time for the presentation to catch up that I think it is near low-end Cat 4 strength.

Remember Rammasun? Surface obs only supported a cat 3 at most yet ADT screamed 127 kts

This is easily NOT A CAT 4

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It's been gradually warming. May make it back to 10C.

Missing my point. It has not reached even 5C yet, yet you say this will warm to 10C

So when this warms to 15C ADT will say this rivals Haiyan

Maybe Haiyan too may not have been as strong as what we have thought

Well, the eye was at 13C last night (when it was super large), and it's been steadily warming, so it may make it back there. Not saying it will.

Haiyan had plenty of time to catch up to its satellite presentation, so it probs was that strong.

Haiyan's landfall intensity from JTWC was 165 kts yet Tacloban winds may have been cat 3 to 4 at most

Maybe 150-155 kts for Haiyan

[Yellow Evan]

Blanca is nowhere near a cat 4 or 5, lol

A positive eye surrounded by fairly cold cloud tops appearance wise, easily justifies Cat 4. At this point, there's been enough time for the presentation to catch up that I think it is near low-end Cat 4 strength.

Remember Rammasun? Surface obs only supported a cat 3 at most yet ADT screamed 127 kts

This is easily NOT A CAT 4

That's only one instance. Not enough to draw any major conclusions.

Plenty of storms have been overestimated and plenty have been underestimated

It's not wise to draw conclusions from surface observations, given undersampling. That's what the JMA does.

[talkon]

Remember Rammasun? Surface obs only supported a cat 3 at most yet ADT screamed 127 kts

This is easily NOT A CAT 4

ADT is 152 kts for this storm.