EPAC: BLANCA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 060845
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BLANCA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
300 AM MDT SAT JUN 06 2015

...BLANCA A MAJOR HURRICANE AGAIN...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 108.9W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
La Paz to Santa Fe, including Cabo San Lucas.

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from Cabo San
Lucas to Santa Fe.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from
north of La Paz to San Evaristo and from north of Santa Fe to Cabo
San Lazaro.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo San Lucas to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* La Paz to Santa Fe, including Cabo San Lucas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of La Paz to San Evaristo
* North of Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Blanca was located
near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 108.9 West. Blanca is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue today. A turn toward the north-northwest is
forecast by tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Blanca is
expected to approach the coast in the warning area late Sunday.

Satellite imagery indicates that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Blanca is a
category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Little change in strength is forecast today. Weakening is forecast
tonight and Sunday, but Blanca is forecast to be near hurricane
strength as it approaches the southern Baja California peninsula.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area on Sunday, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane
watch area Sunday and Sunday night.

RAINFALL: Blanca is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches over much of Baja California Sur and the southern
portion of Baja California, with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 7 inches over Baja California Sur.

SURF: Swells generated by Blanca are affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico, the Pacific coast of the Baja California
peninsula, and the southern Gulf of California. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
For additional information, please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Then why are you saying this is a cat 4?

I gave a range that is is a cat 2 or 3 yet you said "too early to draw conclusions"

Hypocritical hehehe

[brunota2003]

Looking at the actual satellite images...I think I would put the intensity at 105 knots right now. Kind of reminds me of Frances, actually.

[talkon]

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 060844
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BLANCA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
0900 UTC SAT JUN 06 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
LA PAZ TO SANTA FE...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM CABO SAN
LUCAS TO SANTA FE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
NORTH OF LA PAZ TO SAN EVARISTO AND FROM NORTH OF SANTA FE TO CABO
SAN LAZARO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO SAN LUCAS TO SANTA FE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA PAZ TO SANTA FE...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LA PAZ TO SAN EVARISTO
* NORTH OF SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 108.9W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
EYE DIAMETER 35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 90SE 90SW 80NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 130SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..260NE 330SE 210SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 108.9W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 108.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.8N 109.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 130SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.3N 110.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.1N 110.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.0N 111.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 26.8N 112.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 108.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

105 knots.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Remember Rammasun? Surface obs only supported a cat 3 at most yet ADT screamed 127 kts

This is easily NOT A CAT 4

ADT is 152 kts for this storm.

I know. That means Blanca is much weaker than ADT estimates

Recon confirmed 80 kts earlier, may now be 85-105 kts


ADT is totally hyping. Get it?

[Yellow Evan]

Center fix off.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 JUN 2015 Time : 074500 UTC
Lat : 16:45:50 N Lon : 108:41:45 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.4 / 907.3mb/152.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.4 7.5 7.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : -0.7C Cloud Region Temp : -77.5C

Scene Type : EYE

[talkon]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 060848
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
300 AM MDT SAT JUN 06 2015

Blanca has strengthened tonight, with infrared imagery showing a
better defined eye surrounded by a symmetric convective ring with
cloud top temperatures colder than -70C. The 0600Z Dvorak estimates
from TAFB and SAB were both T6.0/115 kt, and the initial intensity
has been conservatively set to 105 kt for this advisory, assuming
that the wind field has not yet caught up to the rapidly improving
satellite presentation. The environment appears conducive for
Blanca to at least maintain its intensity during the next 12 to 18
hours, with weakening expected to begin by 24 hours as the cyclone
reaches cooler waters. A quicker rate of weakening is forecast
after 24 hours due to moderate shear and even cooler SSTs. The NHC
intensity forecast has been adjusted upward, especially in the first
36 hours, to account for the higher initial intensity. This results
in the official forecast now showing Blanca weakening to just below
hurricane intensity in 48 hours as it approaches the Baja California
peninsula. After landfall, Blanca should weaken to a depression and
then dissipate over the high terrain of the peninsula in about 4
days.

The initial motion estimate is 320/10. The track forecast reasoning
remains unchanged, as Blanca should continue moving northwestward
today and then turn north-northwestward under the influence of a
mid-level high centered over northern Mexico and Texas and an
approaching trough to the west of the hurricane. The guidance
remains in good agreement on this scenario, and only minor
adjustments were made to the NHC track forecast, which is near the
latest multi-model consensus TVCE.

Based on the new NHC forecast, the government of Mexico has issued
a tropical storm warning for the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula, a hurricane watch from Cabo San Lucas to
Santa Fe, and tropical storm watches farther north.

Moisture associated with Blanca is moving northward and could help
produce heavy rainfall over portions of southwestern Mexico during
the next day or so, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 16.9N 108.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 17.8N 109.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 19.3N 110.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 21.1N 110.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 23.0N 111.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 26.8N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Looking at the actual satellite images...I think I would put the intensity at 105 knots right now. Kind of reminds me of Frances, actually.

I concur with that. Looks nothing like Katrina

[xtyphooncyclonex]

ADT should give 5.5 for this, not 7.5

[Yellow Evan]

Remember Rammasun? Surface obs only supported a cat 3 at most yet ADT screamed 127 kts

This is easily NOT A CAT 4

ADT is 152 kts for this storm.

I know. That means Blanca is much weaker than ADT estimates

Recon confirmed 80 kts earlier, may now be 85-105 kts


ADT is totally hyping. Get it?

When recon confirmed 80 knts, Dvorak was at 77 and 90 knots, and ADT was at like 115. It's def strengthened since then.

[Kingarabian]

Blanca is nowhere near a cat 4 or 5, lol

A positive eye surrounded by fairly cold cloud tops appearance wise, easily justifies Cat 4. At this point, there's been enough time for the presentation to catch up that I think it is near low-end Cat 4 strength.

Remember Rammasun? Surface obs only supported a cat 3 at most yet ADT screamed 127 kts

This is easily NOT A CAT 4

It's really really close to a cat.4. Eye just needs to clear out.

[Yellow Evan]

Still some warming to it's north. Too soon to say if it's peaked for sure.

On that note, goodnight everyone.

[Kingarabian]

Good to have you Evan. Goodnight

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Good evening

[Kingarabian]

Eye looks rounder, cold tops consolidating nicely and not all over the place. Eye needs to warm just a bit more and it may become cat 4.

[cycloneye]

It will be a good day for recon as Blanca looks mean.

[NDG]

Residents in Cabo San Lucas need to watch out that Blanca does not track slightly to the right of the forecast track, over warmer waters, which then could keep her at hurricane strength longer. I do not see her having much problems with windshear over the next 36-48 hrs.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Blanca is doing pretty well now as the pressure dropped back to where it was 24-48hrs go. Now the eye structure is back and is more well formed. This is one to carefully watch as Blanca may pull a surprise and use that warm SST's quick and strengthens. Interesting storm though.



Synopsis for Blanca and other basins: http://goo.gl/4Mys7F


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TheAustinMan]

I expected some intensification given the intensity of the convection yesterday, but I certainly did not expect Blanca to wrap up and strengthen as much as it did overnight. We have recon soon, so we'll finally get to ascertain with more certainty what Blanca's reintensification last night did.

Code: Select all

EP, 02, 2015060612,   , BEST,   0, 173N, 1092W, 115,  943, HU,  34, NEQ,  180,  150,  130,  130, 1007,  270,  35,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     BLANCA, D,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 004,
EP, 02, 2015060612,   , BEST,   0, 173N, 1092W, 115,  943, HU,  50, NEQ,   80,   90,   90,   80, 1007,  270,  35,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     BLANCA, D,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 004,
EP, 02, 2015060612,   , BEST,   0, 173N, 1092W, 115,  943, HU,  64, NEQ,   50,   40,   30,   40, 1007,  270,  35,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     BLANCA, D,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 004,


[Kingarabian]

Eye continues to warm. Almost a clear circle.