EPAC: BLANCA - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Looks like one of those large monsoon storms in the WPAC that slowly develops into monster cat 5's.

[Kingarabian]

[cycloneye]

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 4m4 minutes ago
I wonder if a theme of 2015 EPac will be the strengthening right before cold water- #Blanca is spectacular again

[TheAustinMan]

First visible glimpse.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

After seeing how complicated this storm has been to forecast over the past few days, I'm only half surprised it's a Cat 4 again. What's next?

[TheAustinMan]

You can clearly tell where the deepest convection is racing around Blanca on visible.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks better than it did last night.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 JUN 2015 Time : 131500 UTC
Lat : 17:25:17 N Lon : 109:26:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.4 / 907.4mb/152.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 7.5 7.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : +7.1C Cloud Region Temp : -76.6C

Scene Type : EYE

[Yellow Evan]

06/1200 UTC 17.3N 109.1W T6.0/6.0 BLANCA -- East Pacific

A couple hours old. Right now, I'm borderline getting a T6.5.

[Ntxw]

That was fast.

[tolakram]

Live visible loop:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=13&lon=-110&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=6

If you wanted to experience a hurricane up close that little island seems like the place to be. Every year it seems to be under siege.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* BLANCA EP022015 06/06/15 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 115 119 116 107 96 67 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 115 119 116 107 96 67 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 115 116 110 100 88 66 47 35 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 5 7 10 13 12 17 15 17 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 6 5 5 4 6 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 143 156 147 144 130 136 182 201 210 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.0 27.4 26.7 26.0 25.2 23.5 21.9 21.7 21.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 144 137 130 123 115 97 81 79 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.1 -50.7 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -51.4 -51.0 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 4 4 2 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 66 63 61 59 60 57 56 52 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 35 35 35 33 32 28 23 15 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 62 65 64 69 63 57 35 20 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 25 24 20 -9 -31 -7 -12 42 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 4 5 4 2 0 -3 1 -6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 498 488 466 373 282 137 60 34 -48 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 17.3 18.0 18.7 19.6 20.4 22.2 24.1 26.0 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 109.2 109.6 110.0 110.3 110.5 111.1 111.9 112.6 113.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 11 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8
T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 426 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -15. -29. -44. -57. -67. -72. -75. -78. -81.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 10. 9. 5. 2. 0. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -9. -17. -28. -36. -36. -37. -36. -35.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 1. -8. -19. -48. -79.-107.-131.-138.-145.-150.-154.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/06/15 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/06/15 12 UTC ##
## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ##
## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
900 AM MDT SAT JUN 06 2015

Blanca has made a significant comeback since yesterday. Satellite
images show a much better organized cloud pattern with a distinct
eye surrounded by very deep convection. The outflow is also well
established in all quadrants. The latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB
and SAB indicate that the winds are up to 115 kt, making Blanca a
category 4 hurricane again on the Saffir/Simpson hurricane wind
scale. A weakening trend should begin tonight or early Sunday when
the hurricane encounters cool waters around 20 degrees North.
The weakening should occur even faster as the cyclone approaches
the west coast of the southern Baja California peninsula. The effect
of the high terrain and increasing shear will cause the cyclone
to become a remnant low in about 3 days.

Satellite fixes suggest that Blanca is moving toward the northwest
or 325 degrees at 9 kt. The steering controlling the motion of
of Blanca remains unchanged. The hurricane is expected to continue
toward the northwest and then north-northwestward around the
periphery of mid-level high centered over northern Mexico and
southwestern Texas. The southerly flow ahead of an approaching
trough will also contribute to the northward motion of Blanca. The
NHC forecast follows the track guidance which, in fact, continues to
be in very good agreement, and it gives more weight to the consensus
of the GFS and the ECMWF models.

Moisture associated with Blanca is moving northward and could help
produce heavy rainfall over portions of southwestern Mexico during
the next day or so, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 17.7N 109.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 18.8N 110.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 20.5N 110.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 22.5N 111.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 24.5N 112.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 28.5N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Kingarabian]

Cat 4...

[Yellow Evan]

Now, the big question, what will Recon find?

I could see anything from 100-140 knots.

[Kingarabian]

Continuing to become symmetrical.

[Kingarabian]

Now, the big question, what will Recon find?

I could see anything from 100-140 knots.

I hope it finds a weak storm for the people of baja.

But it wouldn't be surprising to me if they found a stronger storm.

[Kingarabian]

ADT has a WMG eye. +10c.

[Yellow Evan]

ADT has a WMG eye. +10c.

Would be huge if there was no recon arriving.


----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 JUN 2015 Time : 134500 UTC
Lat : 17:17:17 N Lon : 109:21:43 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.4 / 907.4mb/152.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.1 7.3 7.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : +10.1C Cloud Region Temp : -76.0C

Scene Type : EYE

[Yellow Evan]

Looking at flash loops, this thing is over warmer SST's than the SHIPS is thinking. Over 28-29C waters.

[Ivanhater]

Could bring rain into Vegas in a few days which would be very unusual for June.